Todays Top Home Run Props: MLB Best Bets 6/27/25

Alright, some adjustments have been made to the model and we are also actively working on a new model for our DINGERZ Articles! The new one will be published Monday, so buckle up! Here are our top home run prop bets for June 28, 2025. We're diving deep into batters with killer slugging rates and those who are just red-hot right now. Each pick comes with a breakdown, and a direct link to get your bets in. Oh, and did we mention all this awesome data is powered by Pine Sports AI's JaXon? You're welcome!

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The James Wood Bomb (Washington Nationals)

• Slugging Performance: Wood has hit the over in 40% of his last 5 games and boasts a season slugging percentage of .500. His power numbers have been trending upward recently.

• Matchup Advantage: The Angels’ pitching staff has been vulnerable to left-handed power hitters, giving Wood a favorable opportunity to go deep.

• Betting Odds: The best line for Wood to hit a home run is over 0.5 (+510) at Pinnacle

The Ian Happ Bomb

(Chicago Cubs)

• Slugging Performance: Happ has been consistent, hitting the over in 40% of his last 5 games with an average of 0.6 home runs per game. His season-long slugging percentage is .500.

• Matchup Insight: Happ faces a Houston pitching staff that has allowed power hitters to thrive. His ability to generate hard contact makes him a strong candidate for a home run.

• Betting Odds: The best line for Happ to hit a home run is over 0.5 (+600) at FanDuel

The Jo Adell Bomb

(Los Angeles Angels)

• Slugging Performance: Adell has been on fire in June, slashing .266/.356/.658 with 17 RBIs and 16 runs scored. He’s hit 4 home runs in his last 9 games and is on a 9-game hitting streak.

• Matchup Advantage: Adell has a favorable matchup against the Nationals' pitching staff, which has struggled to contain power hitters. His home slugging percentage of .505 further boosts his chances.

• Betting Odds: The best line for Adell to hit a home run is over 0.5 (+400) at FanDuel

The Jarren Duran Bomb (Boston Red Sox)

• Odds: +600

• Book: FanDuel

• Recent Performance: Duran has not hit a home run in his last 5 games, and his hit rate for home runs over the last 20 games is just 5%.

• Season Stats: He has a season-long home run hit rate of 7.23%, with 6 home runs in 83 games.

• Matchup Context: Against the Toronto Blue Jays in 2025, Duran has hit 1 home run in 7 games (14.29%).

• Home Field Factor: At home, his home run hit rate is 9.76% across 41 games.

Verdict:

While the +600 odds are enticing, Duran's low home run hit rate and lack of recent power make this a risky bet. However, if you're looking for a longshot with high upside, this could be worth a small wager.

The Ben Rice Bomb

(New York Yankees)

• Odds: +400

• Book: FanDuel

• Recent Form:

  • Last 5 games: Hit the over in 40% of games, averaging 0.4 home runs per game

  • Last 10 games: Hit the over in 20% of games, averaging 0.2 home runs per game

• Season Overview:

  • Season-long hit rate: 19.12% (13 home runs in 68 games).

  • Home performance: Hit the over in 18.18% of home games, averaging 0.18 home runs per game

• Vs. Oakland Athletics (2025):

  • Hit the over in 33.33% of games against Oakland this season, averaging 0.33 home runs per game

Today’s Best Ball Parks to Produce Homers!

Angels Stadium

• Park Factors (Angel Stadium):

  • Overall Park Factor: 100 (neutral)

  • Home Run Factor: 113 (favors home runs)

  • Hard-Hit Rate: 99 (neutral)

• Impact on Adell:Angel Stadium’s 113 HR factor is highly favorable for home run hitters. Adell’s recent power surge (4 HRs in his last 9 games) and the park’s hitter-friendly dimensions make this a prime spot for him to continue his hot streak.

Daikin Park

• Park Factors (Daikin Park):

  • Overall Park Factor: 101 (slightly hitter-friendly)

  • Home Run Factor: 104 (favors home runs)

  • Hard-Hit Rate: 98 (slightly pitcher-friendly)

• Impact on Happ:Daikin Park’s 104 HR factor provides a slight boost to Happ’s chances of hitting a home run. His ability to make consistent hard contact (84.3 mph exit velocity in limited appearances against Brandon Walter) aligns well with the park’s tendencies.