On Saturday we have a great night of fights to look forward to with lots of hungry young prospects eager to make a name for themselves. The most captivating fight is between former 115 pound champ Rose “Thug Rose” Namajunas (-225) and Tracy Cortez.(+185) We will take an in depth look at the strengths of both fighters, The activity leading up to this fight as well as several factors that can contribute to the outcome of this bout.
Rose Namajunas moving up in weight
Many will say Thug Rose is one of the most talented and beloved strawweight fighters in UFC history. She not only captured the belt 2 separate times but has endeared herself to the fans by overcoming adversity. However that being said 125 is a whole different beast with bigger, stronger more powerful women. We saw her lose a very convincing decision to Manon Fiorot and win a very questionable one against Amanda Ribas. Her 125LB resume is not very impressive as of thus far.
Tracy Cortez on the other hand has never lost a fight at 125 in the UFC, Defeating strong prospects such as Jasmine Jasudavicius, Melissa Gatto, Erin Blanchfield and Stephanie Egger.
Cortez will be much more accustomed to fighting at 125 and has much more experience at this weight class and that may play to her favor in this bout.
Weight Cuts, Short notice, and Elevation
With Rose Namajunas original opponent Maycee Barber unable to compete, Tracy Cortez stepped in to save the show on short notice. Here are a couple reasons that might work against her.
Rose has been in many 5 round bouts in the UFC and this will be Cortez’s first. This may give Rose the advantage in the championship rounds.
We have seen Cortez slow down towards the end of a 3 round fight as recently as her last one. Her cardio and conditioning will be a major factor especially if she implements a wrestling heavy game plan.
Denver has the highest elevation in the country, Rose also resides and trains in Denver so she will already be accustomed to this.
On Friday morning at the weigh-ins, Tracy Cortez had so much trouble hitting the 126 even mark she had to cut her hair to make weight. This could affect her cardio late in the fight.
The Value Picks
There are so many variables in this fight that it is almost impossible to pick a winner with certainty. What makes a great fight is not knowing what's going to happen until it happens. That being said, here are the picks I like the best for this matchup.
Cortez by DEC +240
I think this is the best value available. Both women have had the majority of their fights go to decision. Tracy has a lot of tools to get this done. She has strong wrestling and will be the much larger fighter in the cage. There is a very reasonable path to victory for her that involves her logging lots of top control time and takedowns. We have seen Rose struggle with wrestlers (IE losing the belt to Carla Esparza) at 115 so there's a good chance it will be even tougher for her at 125.
Rose by DEC +100
Rose money line is currently sitting at -225. Considering the extremely high likelihood of this fight going the distance, Rose's distinct point fighting striking style and the size she is giving up to Cortez going for the decision is certainly worth the risk.
Over 4.5 -300
This will probably be best utilized as a parlay piece but as mentioned a number of times previously this fight has a very high chance of going the distance. Pairing this bet with a money line pick you are confident in to get a little extra coin out of it is a great play.
Check us out at @TheMMApickers for more great picks for #UFCDenver
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