UFC Abu Dhabi is here! After a wild UFC 304 Card we are being treated to yet another night of great fights jam packed full of exciting prospects and a compelling main event with title implications that can shake up the entire bantamweight division.
In this article we will focus on 3 fighters
(Bantamweight)
(Middleweight)
(Heavyweight)
We will be analyzing skillsets, recent performances and the opponents they face on this card.
Gaziev Vs Mayes (HW Bout)
Shamil Gaziev is a hot prospect fighting out of Manama capital city Bahrain.
He is one of the better wrestlers at heavyweight as he showed during his DWCS debut when he secured a rear naked choke to earn his UFC contract.
He had a great 1st performance in the UFC getting the KO against budding 14-2 prospect "Martin Buday". His second fight was a tough battle against ranked heavyweight and UFC legend Jairzinho-Rozenstruik. In this bout Shamil looked promising in the early rounds but started to fade in the championship rounds and was eventually exhausted and was TKOd on the stool at the end of the 4th. The fact that the UFC threw him in there with a top tier talent for his second fight in the promotion speaks volumes to this guys potential. With a little work on his striking and cardio he can go far in this division.
Shamil's Career MMA record is an impressive 12-1. He has 8 KOS 3 Subs and one DEC win displaying a versatile skillset. He has shown strong and technical wrestling ability and some heavy ground and pound. He is one of the larger more physically imposing heavyweights standing at 6"3 and generally weighing in over the 260 mark in his recent bouts. He also has a "78 inch reach making it challenging for smaller opponents to close the gap. He has demonstrated great ability to use his physical attributes to his advantage.
Let's take a look at his matchup with Don'Tale "Lord Kong" Mayes Who is famously a training partner of the legendary John "Bones Jones who is widely considered the MMA Goat. Mayes has an 11-6-1 MMA record and a 4-4-1 record in the UFC. Mayes is a brawler stylistically and prefers to duke it out on the feet with big heavy punches and blitzes. His grappling however, leaves a lot to be desired. He was submitted by Cyril Gane via heel hook who is much more well known for his striking than anything else. While we have not seen Gaziev wrestle very much in the UFC he may choose to take advantage of Mayes 60% take down defense and weak submission defense.
The DK sportsbook has Gaziev by Sub sitting at+400
Another factor in this fight is cardio. Neither of these men have any, however they are both extremely durable, Both have only been KO'D one time in their MMA careers respectively. 3 of Mayes last 4 have ended in decisions and Shamil showed a durable chin after going 4 rounds with legendary striker "Biggi boy" despite the fact that he gassed out on the stool at the end of the 4th.
The live odds on the over 2.5 are sitting at +130
Shamil by decision is at +300
Mayes by decision is at +500
We must not forget that this is a heavyweight fight. although Mayes averages more strikes landed per minute Shamil is the more technical striker and has the heavier hands (although both guys hit HARD)
Shamil by KO sits at +165
Mayes by KO sits at +450
My Value Picks are the over 2.5 and using the ML on Shamil as a parlay piece, I think these are the best value on any odds available for this bout.
Magomedov VS Oleksiejczuk
Next up we have Shara "Shara Bullet" Magomedov VS MICHAL "Hussan" OLEKSIEJCZUK.
Shara has a sterling undefeated record of 13-0 with 11 KO's. He is a world class striker and has some incredible kicks in his arsenal. He beat a very durable Bruno Silva in his debut by DEC and showed an ability to overcome the constant takedown attempts although it should be noted silva did log a decent amount of control time. Shara finished his most recent fight via 3rd round KO after lnding a knee and following up with some devastating punch combinations.
Olesiejczuk however is 1-3 in his last 4 and has been finished in under 2 minutes in both of his last 2 fights. "Hussar" has only landed 1 Takedown in his last 6 fights so it is highly likely this will play out on the feet. While Hussar has shown slick boxing in the past Shara Bullet has a much more diverse bag of tools to get this done. We have seen everything from spinning wheel Kicks to Flying Knees and devastating punches from Shara as he loves to showcase both his creativity and athleticism.
He also seems to have a gas tank that never quits and really puts the pressure and pace on his opponent.
To be honest I only see this going 1 way Shara Bullet by KO at -110
There is also great value in using Shara Bullet ML -230 as a parlay piece.
All other bets are not worth the value offered in my opinion although this is MMA so anything can happen!
Nurmagomedov VS Sandhagen
In the much anticipated main event we get to see undefeated contender and cousin of the famous Khabib "The Eagle" Nurmagomedov who famously went 29-0 in his MMA career Umar "Young Eagle" Nurmagomedov. Umar is coming into this bout a perfect 17-0 arguably winning every round he has fought in his professional career. He has 2 KO's, 7 SUB's and 8 DEC wins displaying a versatile skillset. He has world class Dagestani wrestling and trains with his cousin Khabib. He has also been training with some of the best guys in the world over at AKA under Javier Mendez who has produced many UFC champions in many different weight classes. Lately Umar's striking has looked especially sharp and he has added some beautiful kicks to his arsenal. His MMA wrestling is amongst the best in the world and this guy is tough as nails, durable, and extremely well conditioned. He has been nothing short of a world beater during his time in the UFC earning his nickname "Young Eagle".
Taking a look at his opponent, Cory"The Sandman" Sandhagen is certainly no slouch. He is a strong contender in his own right and has a hell of a resume. After 2 very close losses to ex champions he has gone 3-0 against top level contenders in his last 3 bouts and has inserted himself back into the title picture. With 7 KO'S 3 SUB's and 7 Decisions he has proven even against top level competition he can get the job done any way he needs to. He has also proven to be extremely durable as he has only been finished once in his UFC career by one of the greatest bantamweights of all time Aljamain "Funkmaster" Sterling Who is currently working his way up the Featherweight ladder and is in position to put himself in the title picture there.
I am picking Umar to win but due to the variety of finishes and the vast skillset of both fighters it makes it extremely difficult to pick a method or even select an over under. Instead we will look at some of the key factors in this matchup and the bets with the best value.
Umar's wrestling is a real threat and that will force Sandhagen to worry about the takedown create striking opportunities
Sandhagen likes to work in the clinch and use close range strikes like elbows and knees, Due to the wrestling threat this will come with a lot of extra risk and can alter his game plan.
Umar is the stronger better conditioned fighter.
Sandhagen has been struggling with injuries over his last few fights/camps
Sandhagen has defaulted to the wrestling exchanges to beat his last 2 opponents this wont be a viable option against Umar
Sandhagen has struggled against strong wrestlers in the past. Aljo subbed him and Dillashaw won their fight on takedowns and control time.
Although my official recommendation is to use Umar ML -325 as a parlay piece here are some bets with good value
Umar by SUB +275
Umar by any finish +180 (Double chance bet)
Fight to go over 2.5 -280 (parlay piece)
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