Washington Nationals vs. Colorado Rockies: Friday, June 21st Prediction & Analysis:
- Lee Shipley
- Jun 20, 2024
- 3 min read
Betting Odds (ESPN BET): WSH ML (-120), COL ML (+100), Over 11.5 (+110), Under 11.5 (-130)
Who Has The Recent Edge? Colorado Rockies or Washington Nationals?
Both teams have been on HEATERS? Not quite, they are actually in quite opposite positions as of late. In the last 10 games, the Washington Nationals are 7-3 but have found themselves playing not-so-great teams such as the Detroit Tigers who they took 2/3 from, MIA who they swept for 3 and just lost two out of three to the Arizona Diamondbacks at home who are in no means a great ball club right now. A quick turnaround from Washington to Colorado for a 3 gamer against the Rockies... We'll see how they come out in the very notable Coors Field. The Rockies on the other hand? Coming in at 3-7 in the last 10 games and just dropped three of four games to a very talented Mookie Betts-less team. My big takeaway from the recent series against the Dodgers was that they competed and far acclimated to their home ballpark after playing seven straight games at Coors. There is no doubt that Coors is the hardest field to get adapted to elevation so it will be a lot easier for the Colorado Rockies to come out with hot bats.
Coors (Home) Field Advantage?
The Colorado Rockies have an incredible advantage playing at Coors Field for half of their games a year. The Colorado Rockies seem to be very hot and cold and I may be seeing a trend here... every time that this Colorado Rockies team has a HOME stand their batting average goes way up in league rankings for the last 7 and 15 days depending on how long the home stretch is. The Rockies hit .264 as a team at home and .234 on the road so quite a difference when it comes to averages. The Rockies also have a marginally high number of XBH at home compared to the road. The Rockies get a LHP on the bump they have better splits vs. LHP as well batting .255 compared to .247 vs. RHP. The Rockies have a nearly 33% XBH rate on their hits which can turn into runs quite quickly at Coors.
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ChaseTheLock WINNING Pick For WSH/COL...
ChaseTheLock Prediction: Over 11 (-118) 1.18u
ChaseTheLock Record: 5-5-1 (-0.6u)
Love this spot in the series opener between the Washington Nationals and Colorado Rockies. Let's start with the big piece of this bet here. The starting pitchers: are DJ Herz and Dakota Hudson. Let's start with DJ Herz who has not faced any current Colorado Rockies BUT has very poor metrics in a couple of categories that are key for Coors. His GB% is 26.5% which is extremely low and the way balls fly and elevate of Coors this is a sign for runs. His barrel% is also very high for 11.8%. A below-average fastball velocity for Herz won't play so nicely either for the Nats. On the other side of the mound is Dakota Hudson who is atrocious when playing at Coors with a 7.16 ERA at home and a 3.06 ERA on the road. Whole different player when he is at Coors and it is not for the better. Dakota Hudson also struggles more against left-handed bats allowing them to bat .267 (.245 vs. RHB). This will be very good for the Nationals who have 4 LHBs projected to be in their lineup as well as a switch hitter who could lineup on the left or right. The reason I like the over rather than just the Nationals SU is because Herz can easily get exposed as he is a young arm pitching in Coors Field for the first time in his young career. The Washington and Colorado bullpens have both been pretty mid and can easily get some late-game runs. I'll take the Coors Field Over at a flat price of eleven. Let's CASH Y'all!
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