Hey baseball fans! Get ready for some serious dingers because the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby is just around the corner, and it's looking like it's gonna be a blast. We've got a cool mix of seasoned sluggers and some fresh faces ready to put on a show. Even with a lot of first-timers, you can bet there will be plenty of bombs flying out of the park. I've crunched the numbers and gotten some expert opinions to give you my top picks for who's going to win it all. All this awesome data, by the way, is powered by Pine Sports AI JaXon.

The 2025 Homerun Derby Best Bets!

Oneil Cruz to Win +350

• Odds: +310 (ESPN), +330 (FanDuel), +340 (BetMGM), +350 (NBC Sports)

Oneil Cruz of the Pittsburgh Pirates is a truly unique talent, and he's my top pick to take home the Derby crown. He possesses elite raw power that is tailor-made for this event. Statistically, Cruz stands out with the second-fastest bat speed in MLB and the highest average exit velocity. He's also responsible for the single hardest-hit ball ever tracked in the history of the sport, a laser-beam homer at 122.9 mph. This kind of explosive power translates directly to Derby success. While he might be considered a "flawed offensive player" in a traditional game setting, the Derby format allows his unparalleled ability to simply disintegrate baseballs to shine. Experts are high on Cruz, with one analyst calling him "my pick to win it all." His youth and athleticism further bolster his chances for endurance through multiple rounds.

James Wood to Make the Finals

• Odds: +225 (CBSSports.com via Magliocca)

James Wood of the Washington Nationals is a compelling pick to reach the finals. At just 22 years old, Wood is already showcasing elite power, having hammered 24 home runs this season. He ranks exceptionally high in key power-hitting Statcast metrics, including the 96th percentile in bat speed, 97th percentile in average exit velocity, and 97th percentile in barrel rate. His average home run distance of 411 feet is second only to Ronald Acuña Jr. among participants. While his natural game swing might have a lower launch angle, his all-fields power and familiarity with Truist Park (having played multiple series there and homered in his first appearance this season) give him an edge. MLB insider Angelo Magliocca specifically highlights Wood as a strong prop bet to make the finals, citing his status as one of the National League's elite young hitters.

Byron Buxton to Win (Sleeper Pick)

• Odds: +800 (BetMGM), +850 (FanDuel)

Byron Buxton of the Minnesota Twins presents excellent value as a sleeper pick. Despite a history of injuries, Buxton's raw power remains incredibly impressive. He crushed a 479-foot home run earlier this season, the longest among all participants, and has four others exceeding 425 feet. His bat speed is elite, ranking in the 89th percentile, and he consistently delivers fly balls at the optimal home run launch angle. Furthermore, Buxton ranks second in slugging percentage among the Derby field at .574, indicating his ability to drive the ball with authority. His athleticism and endurance are also key factors that could help him navigate the demanding multi-round format, especially considering he recently hit for the cycle. While he's 31, Teoscar Hernandez won last year at the same age, showing it's not impossible for veterans to succeed.

Junior Caminero to Win (Longshot)

• Odds: +950 (FanDuel), +1000 (Reddit), +1100 (USA Today)

For those looking for a high-value longshot, Junior Caminero of the Tampa Bay Rays is an intriguing option. At just 21 years old, Caminero is one of the youngest participants but possesses immense power potential. He trails only Oneil Cruz in bat speed among all players and ranks in the top 15 in max exit velocity. Caminero has demonstrated all-fields power, with seven of his 23 home runs this season going to the backside. While he has a relatively low launch angle, which could lead to ground balls if he's not in rhythm, his raw power and youth make him a dangerous contender. One expert has him as a sleeper pick to reach the finals, and another sees him as a strong longshot to win, potentially becoming the youngest Derby champion ever.

2025 MLB Home Run Derby: Confidence Ratings and Odds

Oneil Cruz to Win

• Confidence Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

• Odds: +350

James Wood to Make the Finals

• Confidence Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

• Odds: +225

Byron Buxton to Win

• Confidence Rating: ⭐⭐⭐

• Odds: +850

Junior Caminero to Win

• Confidence Rating: ⭐⭐

• Odds: +1100