Today’s Top MLB Homerun Props for 9/24/25
- Lee Shipley
- Sep 24
- 5 min read
Alright, let's talk dingers! We're jumping into today's MLB slate to find the best home run props on the board. We've gone deep into the stats—I'm talking player performance, historical battles, and park factors—but we didn't stop there. We actually Collab with the brains of Pine Sports AI JaXon to give you that perfect combination of human intuition and cold, hard artificial intelligence for your sports betting picks. Get ready for some strong recommendations!
Today’s Top Homerun Props!
Kyle Schwarber (Philadelphia Phillies) - Over 0.5 Home Runs
Matchup: Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies
Line: Over 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +250 DraftKings
📊 Analysis:
Kyle Schwarber is a prime candidate to go deep today. He has hit over this line in 40% of his last 10 games and 30.57% of his games this season. More impressively, when playing at home in 2025, he's cleared this line in 35.53% of his appearances. The Citizens Bank Park is known to be batter-friendly, boasting a strong 115 HR factor, which is significantly above average. Furthermore, Schwarber has an excellent historical matchup against Miami's starting pitcher, Ryan Weathers, having hit 1 home run in just 3 plate appearances, with a .333 batting average and a massive 1.333 slugging percentage against him. This combination of home field advantage, a favorable park, and a strong individual history against the pitcher makes Schwarber a top pick.
Ronald Acuña Jr. (Atlanta Braves) - Over 0.5 Home Runs
Matchup: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves
Line: Over 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +459 Pinnacle
📊 Analysis:
Ronald Acuña Jr. has been on a power surge recently, hitting over this line in 60% of his last 5 games. While his season average is 20.88%, his performance against the Washington Nationals this season has been exceptional, with a 50% hit rate (3 home runs in 6 games). Playing at Truist Park, which has a 104 HR factor, further boosts his chances. The Braves' home stadium provides a slight advantage for hitters, and Acuña's recent form combined with his success against the Nationals makes him a compelling choice.
Matt Olson (Atlanta Braves) - Over 0.5 Home Runs
Matchup: Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves
Line: Over 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +375 ESPN BET
📊 Analysis:
Despite a recent cold streak where he hasn't hit a home run in his last 5 games,Matt Olson's historical performance against the Washington Nationals is too significant to ignore. He has hit over this line in 41.67% of his matchups against the Nationals in 2025, tallying 5 home runs in 12 games. Like Acuña Jr., Olson benefits from playing at Truist Park, which has a favorable 104 HR factor. Given his proven ability to hit against this opponent and the home park advantage, Olson is a strong bounce-back candidate for a home run today.
Taylor Ward (Los Angeles Angels) - Over 0.5 Home Runs
Matchup: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels
Line: Over 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +475 ESPN BET
📊 Analysis:
Taylor Ward presents a high-value opportunity today. He has hit over this line in 40% of his last 5 games and 40% of his last 10 games, indicating solid recent form. His season over hit percentage stands at 21.57%. The Angels' home stadium, Angel Stadium, is particularly favorable for home runs, boasting a strong 113 HR factor. While he has only faced the Royals once this season, hitting a home run in that game, the combination of his recent power, the very hitter-friendly park factor, and the attractive odds make him a great underdog pick for a home run.
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Today’s LongShot HR Props!
Nolan Arenado Home Run Prop
Recommendation: Over 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +950
Book Link: BetMGM
Matchup & Analysis:
Nolan Arenado of the St. Louis Cardinals faces the San Francisco Giants today. While Oracle Park is generally known to be a pitcher-friendly venue with a Home Run Park Factor of 81, Arenado has shown some historical pop against today's opposing pitcher, JT Brubaker. In 20 career plate appearances against Brubaker, Arenado has hit 1 home run, boasting a .632 slugging percentage. His recent form for home runs is not stellar, with a 20% hit rate over his last 5 games and 10% over his last 10. However, he has hit over 0.5 home runs in 50% of his matchups against the Giants in 2025 (1 HR in 2 games). Given the long odds, a single swing could make this a valuable play.
Luis García Jr. Home Run Prop
Recommendation: Over 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +840
Book Link: DraftKings
Matchup & Analysis:
Luis García Jr. and the Washington Nationals are up against the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park. Truist Park leans slightly hitter-friendly for home runs, with a Home Run Park Factor of 104. While García Jr. hasn't hit a home run against the Braves in 2025 or 2024, nor against today's pitcher Bryce Elder in 9 career plate appearances, his advanced metrics against Elder show a solid 1.000 slugging percentage and a .466 xSLG, indicating he's making good contact. His recent home run rate is low, but the favorable park factor and his ability to make solid contact against Elder could lead to an unexpected long ball.
Jake Burger Home Run Prop
Recommendation: Over 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +425
Book Link: BetMGM
Matchup & Analysis:
Jake Burger of the Texas Rangers is playing at home against the Minnesota Twins. Globe Life Field is a slightly hitter-friendly park for home runs, with a Home Run Park Factor of 104. This matchup is particularly intriguing because Burger has an excellent historical record against today's opposing pitcher, Taj Bradley. In just 5 career plate appearances against Bradley, Burger has crushed 2 home runs, resulting in an impressive 1.600 slugging percentage, a 1.500 xSLG, and a .782 xwOBA. This suggests he sees Bradley's pitches exceptionally well. Despite a recent dip in home run production (0% in last 5 games), his strong head-to-head numbers against Bradley make him a prime candidate for a home run today.
Oneil Cruz Home Run Prop
Recommendation: Over 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +325
Book Link: ESPN BET
Matchup & Analysis:
Cruz and the Pittsburgh Pirates are visiting the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park, which is a notoriously hitter-friendly park with a very high Home Run Park Factor of 124. This park significantly boosts home run potential. Cruz also has a fantastic history against today's opposing pitcher, Hunter Greene. In 16 career plate appearances against Greene, Cruz has hit 2 home runs, boasting a .786 slugging percentage, a remarkable .919 xSLG, and a .569 xwOBA. These numbers indicate he consistently makes hard contact and drives the ball with power against Greene. While his recent home run hit rate is 20% over his last 5 games, the combination of a highly favorable park and an excellent individual matchup makes Cruz a strong contender to go deep.
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