Today’s Top MLB Homerun Props for 8/28/25
- Lee Shipley
- Aug 28
- 4 min read
Beautiful day for homeruns! I've been doing some serious homework on today's MLB matchups to find the guys most likely to hit one out of the park. But I'm not just going with my gut feeling or a few quick stats—all of my data and research comes straight from Pine Sports AI, JaXon. With this kind of advanced analysis, we're not just making informed bets; we're betting on unfair! So let's dive into the numbers and check out my top picks for today.
Today’s Top Homerun Hitters!
The Trea Turner Bomb (Philadelphia Phillies)
Pick: Trea Turner Over 0.5 Home Runs
Line: 0.5 HR
Odds: +473
Book: Pinnacle
Trea Turner also faces Atlanta Braves pitcher Cal Quantrill at Citizens Bank Park, which, as mentioned, is very favorable for home runs with a park factor of 116. Turner has a strong history against Quantrill, hitting 2 home runs in 11 career plate appearances, along with a .455 batting average and a 1.182 slugging percentage.
While Turner's recent home run hit rate is 20% over his last 5 and 10 games, his season-long rate is 9.16%. However, his performance against the Braves in 2025 includes 2 home runs in 9 games, indicating he can find success against this opponent. His strong head-to-head numbers against Quantrill, combined with the highly conducive park environment, make him a strong candidate for a home run today.
The Christian Walker Bomb (Houston Astros)
Recommendation: Over 0.5 Home Runs (+350) at BetMGM
Matchup: Colorado Rockies at Houston Astros
Analysis: Christian Walker presents a compelling case today, especially given his strong historical performance against the opposing pitcher, Kyle Freeland. In 38 plate appearances against Freeland, Walker has hit 2 home runs and boasts an impressive .553 slugging percentage. This indicates a favorable matchup for him to connect. While his season average is 0.15 home runs per game, he's shown recent pop, hitting over his home run line in 40% of his last 5 games. The game is being played at Daikin Park, which has a slightly HR-friendly Park Factor of 105, further boosting his chances.
The William Contreras Bomb (Milwaukee Brewers)
Recommendation: Over 0.5 Home Runs (+475) at ESPN BET
Matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers
Analysis: William Contreras has been showing good power recently, hitting over his home run line in 40% of his last 5 games. More importantly, he has a strong track record against the Diamondbacks, hitting over his home run line in 50% of his 6 games against them in 2025 and 40% of his 5 games in 2024. While his career slugging percentage against today's starter, Nabil Crismatt, is based on a very small sample size, his recent success against the Diamondbacks as a team is notable. American Family Field, where the game is being played, also has a favorable HR Park Factor of 107.
The Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Bomb (Arizona Diamondbacks)
Recommendation: Over 0.5 Home Runs (+700) at FanDuel
Matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers
Analysis: Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is another strong candidate in the Diamondbacks-Brewers game. He has an excellent historical matchup against Jose Quintana, the Brewers' starting pitcher. In 7 plate appearances against Quintana, Gurriel Jr. has hit 1 home run and boasts an impressive .714 slugging percentage. His recent form is also solid, hitting over his home run line in 40% of his last 5 and 10 games. With American Family Field being a slightly HR-friendly park (HR Park Factor 107), all signs point to a good opportunity for Gurriel Jr. to go deep.
Today’s Long Shot HR Props!
The Mauricio Dubón Bomb (Houston Astros)
Mauricio Dubón Over 0.5 Home Runs
Line: 0.5 HR
Odds: +1100
Book: Fanduel
Mauricio Dubón faces Colorado Rockies pitcher Kyle Freeland today at Daikin Park, which has a slightly batter-friendly home run park factor of 105. While Dubón's recent home run numbers are low, with 0 home runs in his last 5 games and only 6 all season, his career performance against Freeland is exceptionally strong.
Dubón has a .375 batting average and an impressive .813 slugging percentage in 18 career plate appearances against Freeland, including one home run. This head-to-head history suggests he sees Freeland's pitches very well. News reports also indicate that Rockies starters are generally hittable, and while Freeland is better on the road, the Astros lineup is still expected to perform well against him. This makes Dubón an intriguing longshot for a home run.
The Ketel Marte Bomb (Arizona Diamondbacks)
💰 Betting Recommendation:
Pick: Ketel Marte Over 0.5 Home Runs
Line: 0.5 HR
Odds: +325
Book: BetMGM
Ketel Marte is set to face Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Jose Quintana at American Family Field, which has a home run park factor of 107, indicating it's slightly favorable for long balls. Marte's career numbers against Quintana are excellent, boasting a .417 batting average and a .750 slugging percentage in 14 plate appearances, with one home run.
While Marte hasn't hit a home run in his last 10 games, his season-long home run hit rate is 20%. More importantly, in 2024, he hit 3 home runs in 7 games against the Brewers, showing a strong ability to go deep against this opponent. This historical success against the Brewers, combined with his strong career numbers against Quintana and a favorable park factor, makes him a solid pick.
The Harrison Bader Bomb (Philadelphia Phillies)
💰 Betting Recommendation:
Pick: Harrison Bader Over 0.5 Home Runs
Line: 0.5 HR
Odds: +550
Book: ESPN BET
Harrison Bader will be up against Atlanta Braves pitcher Cal Quantrill at Citizens Bank Park, a venue with a very strong home run park factor of 116. This park is known for being very batter-friendly for home runs. Bader's career statistics against Quantrill are exceptionally compelling: in just 7 plate appearances, he has hit 3 home runs, with an astounding .714 batting average and a 2.143 slugging percentage.
Despite his overall season home run rate being 11.11% and no home runs in his last 3 games against the Braves, his direct matchup history against Quantrill is too significant to ignore. The combination of his past dominance over Quantrill and the highly favorable park conditions makes Bader a high-upside longshot.
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