Today’s Top MLB Homerun Props for 9/10/25
- Lee Shipley
- Sep 10
- 5 min read
Ready to smash some baseballs out of the park? We're diving into today's MLB slate to find the hitters most likely to launch a home run. I've scoured the data on recent player performance, dissected head-to-head matchups, and even checked out the park factors to bring you three top-notch picks for September 10th. And remember, The OutLet Sports Ventures is your go-to spot for all your game predictions and player props across every sport.
All our research and data is powered by our sports AI, JaXon! When you combine human intuition and artificial intelligence, it's just simply betting on unfair!
Today’s Best Homerun Hitters, Props & Lines!
The Jo Adell Bomb
(Los Angeles Angels)
Prop: Jo Adell Over 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +300 ESPN Bet
📊 Analysis:
Jo Adellhas been showing some serious pop recently, hitting the over on his home run prop in 60% of his last 5 games, with an average of 0.6 home runs per game in that stretch. Over his last 10 games, he's cleared the line in 50% of his appearances, averaging 0.5 home runs. For the season, Adell averages 0.26 home runs per game.
He's facing Taj Bradley, a right-handed pitcher for the Minnesota Twins. Adell has a fantastic historical matchup against Bradley, having hit 1 home run in just 2 career plate appearances against him. This small sample size is incredibly efficient. Furthermore, the game is being played at Angel Stadium, which boasts a home run park factor of 113, indicating it's a very hitter-friendly environment, especially for long balls. Adell's home performance this season also shows an average of 0.25 home runs per game.
The Montgomery Bomb (Chicago White Sox)
Prop: Colson Montgomery Over 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +450 Fanduel
📊 Analysis:
Montgomery has been in a good rhythm at the plate, hitting the over on his home run prop in 40% of his last 5 games and 40% of his last 10 games. Looking further back, he's hit the over in 53.33% of his last 15 games, averaging 0.53 home runs per game in that span. His season average stands at 0.33 home runs per game.
Montgomery is facing the Tampa Bay Rays today. While the specific starting pitcher for the Rays isn't detailed in the research, Montgomery has a strong track record against the Rays as a team in 2025, having hit 2 home runs in just 4 plate appearances. This is a very impressive, albeit small, sample size. Playing at home, Montgomery averages 0.37 home runs per game this season. Rate Field has a home run park factor of 96, which is slightly pitcher-friendly, but Montgomery's recent form and strong history against the Rays make him a solid consideration.
The Andy Ibáñez Bomb (Detroit Tigers)
Line: 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +750
Book Link: Caesars
Andy Ibáñez and the Detroit Tigers are set to face Carlos Rodón and the New York Yankees today at Yankee Stadium.
Matchup Analysis: Ibáñez has a surprisingly strong historical record against Carlos Rodón. In 7 plate appearances, he has collected 2 hits, including one home run. His batting average against Rodón is .333 with a 1.000 slugging percentage, and a very high xwOBA of 0.577, indicating he makes quality contact. This head-to-head success is a significant factor.
Recent Performance: While his season and recent home run hit percentages are low (5.56% season over hit rate, 0.0% over in his last 10 games), his historical success against Rodón stands out.
Park Factors: Yankee Stadium is known for being a hitter-friendly park, especially for home runs, with a park factor of 119 for home runs (19% more home run friendly than average). This is a very favorable environment for a long ball.
Given his strong historical performance against Rodón and the favorable park conditions at Yankee Stadium, I'm leaning towards the Over 0.5 Home Runs for Andy Ibáñez. This is an underdog pick, but the specific matchup data makes it intriguing.
Today’s Best Long Shot
HR Props!
The Jeremiah Jackson Bomb (Baltimore Orioles)
Prop: Jeremiah Jackson Over 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +950 BetMGM
📊 Analysis:
Jeremiah Jackson is a higher-odds play, but there are some intriguing factors. While his season average is 0.15 home runs per game, and he's hit the over in 20% of his last 5 games, he has shown some recent power, hitting the over in 40% of his last 10 games.
The most compelling stat for Jackson today is his perfect record against the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2025, having hit 1 home run in his only career plate appearance against them. While this is an extremely small sample size, it highlights his potential to connect when facing this opponent. The game is at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, which has a favorable home run park factor of 107, making it a good venue for hitters to go deep. Jackson also averages 0.12 home runs per game when playing at home this season. This pick is more of a long shot, but the favorable park and his past success against the opponent (even if limited) offer an interesting upside.
The Matt Olson Bomb (Atlanta Braves)
Line: 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +400
Book Link: DraftKings
Matt Olson and the Atlanta Braves are playing the Chicago Cubs today at Truist Park.
Recent Performance: Olson has shown some recent pop, hitting the over on his home run prop in 40% of his last 5 games. His season-long over hit rate for home runs is 15.86%.
Park Factors: Truist Park is a slightly home run-friendly venue, with a home run park factor of 104 (4% more home run friendly than average).
Pitcher Matchup: My research does not contain specific pitcher vs. batter data for Matt Olson in this matchup.
Despite the lack of direct pitcher matchup data, Olson's recent trend of hitting home runs in 40% of his last five games, combined with the slightly favorable park environment, makes the Over 0.5 Home Runs an interesting play.
The Bobby Witt Jr. Bomb
(KC Royals)
Line: 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +498
Book Link: Pinnacle
Bobby Witt Jr. and the Kansas City Royals are facing Logan Allen and the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field.
Matchup Analysis: Witt Jr. has a strong batting average against Logan Allen, hitting .583 in 12 at-bats. However, in those 12 at-bats, he has not recorded a home run. While he makes good contact, it hasn't translated into long balls against Allen specifically.
Recent Performance: Witt Jr.'s recent home run hit rates are quite low, with only a 20% over hit rate in his last 20 games, and a season average of 15%. Against the Guardians in 2025, he's only hit the over on his home run prop in 10% of his matchups.
Park Factors: Progressive Field is a pitcher-friendly park, especially for home runs, with a park factor of 85 (15% less home run friendly than average). This is an unfavorable environment for home runs.
Considering his historical lack of home runs against Logan Allen, his low recent home run hit rates, and the unfavorable park factors at Progressive Field, the Over 0.5 Home Runs for Bobby Witt Jr. is a high-risk, high-reward play. The odds reflect the difficulty of this prop.
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