Best UFC Apex Prop Bets for May 17, 2025 (Burns vs. Morales Fight Night)
- Lee Shipley
- May 16
- 3 min read
Alright fight fans, buckle up! You've landed in the right corner for some seriously juicy prop bets for this UFC Fight Night showdown at the Apex – Burns vs. Morales. Forget the basic win/loss stuff, we're diving deep into the nitty-gritty. My crystal ball (aka, some serious digging into fighter stats and those ever-tempting odds) has whispered some potential gold your way. Get ready for the inside scoop on how these brawlers might actually get the job done!
The Main Event Best Outcomes!
Most Likely: Morales wins via KO/TKO in the later rounds (Round 3 or 4). His striking precision and ability to exploit Burns’ defensive lapses make this the most probable outcome.
Burns’ Best Chance: Burns wins via submission in the early rounds. If he can take Morales down and control him, his grappling could lead to a finish.
1..Gilbert Burns to Win by Submission (+1200)
Analysis: Despite being a significant underdog, Gilbert Burns is a four-time "Performance of the Night" winner and has elite grappling skills. Burns averages 2.1 takedowns per 15 minutes and has a 66% control rate in clinch/ground positions. If he can secure a takedown early, his submission game could be a major factor.
Odds Value: At +1200, this prop offers substantial value for a fighter with proven submission ability, especially if he can exploit Morales' limited experience against high-level grapplers.
2..Michael Morales to Win by KO/TKO (-150)
Analysis: Morales is undefeated (17-0) and has finished 12 of his career wins via knockout, including three in the UFC. He boasts a +2.00 striking success rate and an 8-inch reach advantage over Burns, which he can use to dominate from distance. Burns has been knocked out three times in his career, and Morales' power and precision make this a likely outcome.
Odds Value: While the odds are shorter, Morales' striking efficiency and Burns' recent struggles make this a strong play.
3..Paul Craig Over 18.5 Significant Strikes (-110)
Analysis: Paul Craig has exceeded this mark in three of his last four fights. Returning to light heavyweight, Craig faces Rodolfo Bellato, who absorbs more strikes per minute than Craig. If the fight lasts beyond two rounds, Craig is likely to surpass this total.
Odds Value: This is a solid play for a fighter who has consistently landed significant strikes in recent bouts.
5..Dustin Stoltzfus to Win by Decision (+400)
Analysis: Stoltzfus is an underrated wrestler with 5.63 takedown attempts per 15 minutes and a 41% accuracy rate. His opponent, Nursulton Ruziboev, has struggled with takedown defense and control in past fights. Stoltzfus could grind out a decision victory by controlling the fight on the ground.
Odds Value: At +400, this is a high-value prop for a fighter with a clear path to victory through wrestling and control.
6..Sodiq Yusuff to Win by Decision (+125)
Analysis: Yusuff is a high-volume striker with a +1.78 striking success rate. Facing Mairon Santos, a younger and less experienced fighter, Yusuff’s technical striking and ability to control the pace make a decision victory likely.
Odds Value: At +125, this prop offers a good return for a fighter with a history of winning on points.
7..Julian Erosa to Win by Submission (+500)
Analysis: Erosa has a strong submission game and faces Melquizael Costa, who has shown vulnerabilities in submission defense. Erosa’s ability to capitalize on mistakes in grappling exchanges makes this a viable prop.
Odds Value: At +500, this is a high-upside play for a fighter with multiple paths to a submission victory.
☑️ Final Possible Prediction
Michael Morales is the clear favorite due to his striking, reach, and athleticism. While Burns’ grappling and experience make him a dangerous underdog, Morales’ ability to dictate the fight’s pace and keep it standing should lead to a victory. The most likely outcome is Morales by KO/TKO in Round 3 or 4. But I advise to rock out with the props! As always Good Luck with all your Bets!
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