Christmas Day NFL Best Bets & Top Player Props: KC Chiefs Vs. Broncos 12/25/25
- Lee Shipley
- Dec 23, 2025
- 4 min read
Welcome to the holiday slate! I've crunched the numbers and analyzed the matchups for the three NFL games scheduled for Christmas Day.
While the Cowboys/Commanders and Lions/Vikings games are on the schedule and we have picks for each game, I feel obligated to let you know this article is heavily focused on the nightcap, so we're diving deep into the Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs matchup for the best value plays in the late game! Grab some hot chocolate and your DraftKings Gift card and get ready to make some Money with TheOutletSV.com
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders (1:00 PM EST)
This NFC East rivalry kicks off the holiday slate, but the competitive balance is heavily skewed toward Dallas, especially with Washington's quarterback situation.
Prediction 1: Dallas Cowboys -7.0 Spread -110
The Cowboys are massive favorites for a reason: the Commanders are severely hampered by injuries and defensive struggles. Washington is already eliminated from playoff contention and will be without starting quarterback Jayden Daniels(Out). This forces them to rely on a backup, severely limiting their offensive ceiling against a motivated Dallas team.
Statistical Mismatch: The Commanders' defense is one of the worst units in the league. They rank 29th in rushing yards allowed (141.0 per game) and 32nd in yards per pass attempt allowed (8.68). This is a dream scenario for the Cowboys' offense, which the news reports as having the No. 1 passing attack in the NFL, averaging 274.3 yards per game.
Historical Dominance: Dallas has been dominant in this rivalry recently, going 5-0 against the spread (ATS) in their last five meetings against the Commanders. They are also 9-3 straight up (SU) in their last trips to Washington. They already defeated Washington earlier this season, 44-22, even when Daniels was playing.
Game Script: With Washington's offense struggling to move the ball and Dallas's offense poised to exploit the Commanders' defensive weaknesses, the Cowboys should pull away comfortably and cover the touchdown spread.
You can find the best odds for this pick here: BetRivers
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (4:30 PM EST)
This NFC North clash has playoff implications for the Lions, who need a win to keep their slim hopes alive. The key variable here is the health of the Vikings quarterback.
Prediction 2: Detroit Lions -5.5 Spread -112
The Lions are the superior team in this matchup, and the uncertainty surrounding Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy (Questionable with a hand injury) makes covering this spread highly probable. If McCarthy is out, the Vikings' offense, which already ranks 29th in Offensive DVOA (-20.1%), will be severely limited.
Lions Motivation and Road Success:Detroit is fighting for their playoff lives, while the Vikings have already been eliminated. The Lions have been excellent on the road, going 11-4 SU in their last 15 road games.
Statistical Mismatch (Run Game): The Lions should exploit the Vikings' biggest defensive weakness. Minnesota ranks 24th in rushing yards allowed per game (127.6). The Lions' explosive ground game, featuring their running backs, should be able to control the clock and the pace of the game, opening up the passing attack.
Vikings Offensive Struggles: While the Vikings defense is strong (6th in Defensive DVOA), their offense is a major liability. They rank 29th in Offensive DVOA and 32nd in interception rate (4.81%), meaning they turn the ball over frequently. Against a motivated Lions team, these offensive struggles will likely lead to a multi-score victory for Detroit.
You can find the best odds for this pick here:
🎄MERRY CHRISTMAS, HERE IS A GIFT FROM THE SV!🎁
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (8:15 PM EST)
The Christmas nightcap features a massive line shift due to the Chiefs Catastrophic injury situation at quarterback. The Broncos are fighting for the AFC West title, while the Chiefs are eliminated and starting their third-string QB.
Prediction 3: Denver Broncos -12.5 Spread -110
This is my highest confidence pick of the day. The Chiefs are a shell of their former selves, and the Broncos are highly motivated with a dominant defense.
Quarterback Crisis: The Chiefs are without Patrick Mahomes (Injured Reserve) and Gardner Minshew (Injured Reserve), leaving third-string QB Chris Oladokun to start. Oladokun struggled last week, and the Chiefs' offense managed only 9 points against the Titans.
Elite Defensive Mismatch: Denver's defense is perfectly built to exploit a struggling backup quarterback. The Broncos rank 7th in Defensive DVOA (-9.1%) and are elite at pressuring the passer:
QB Pressure Rate: 1st in the NFL (34.72%)
Sack Rate: 2nd in the NFL (11.01%)
Rushing Yards Allowed: 2nd in the NFL (90.2 per game)
Narrative & Momentum: Denver is 11-1 SU in their last 13 games and 5-0 SU in their last five road games. They have already defeated the Chiefs this season. The Chiefs, meanwhile, are 1-6 SU in their last seven games. Expect the Broncos to dominate the line of scrimmage and win by a comfortable margin.
You can find the best odds for this pick here:
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