NFL Best Bets & Props: MNF Los Angeles Rams vs. Atlanta Falcons 12/29/25

Week 17 is wrapping up with a massive Monday Night Football showdown at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, where the 11-4 Los Angeles Rams are looking to solidify their playoff positioning against a 6-9 Atlanta Falcons squad ready to play spoiler. While the Rams arrive as heavy road favorites with one of the league's most efficient offenses, they’ll have to contend with a Falcons defense that’s shown some serious elite pass-rushing flashes lately. It’s set to be a wild finish to the week, and if you’re looking to capitalize on the action, checking out OutLet sports ventures for your daily free picks is easily the best move you can make for your bankroll.

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Game Lines, Best Bets

& Analysis

ATS Bet: Los Angeles Rams -7.5

• My Pick: Rams -7.0

• Bet this at DraftKings

• Confidence Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Rams are currently favored by more than a touchdown on the road. This line reflects the massive gap in offensive efficiency between these two squads. Los Angeles leads the NFL in offensive EPA per play and success rate, driven by Matthew Stafford's elite season. While Atlanta is at home, they have struggled to keep pace with high-powered offenses, evidenced by their -53 point differential this season.

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Total Bet: Under 50.0 Points

• My Pick: Under 50.0

• Bet this at BetMGM

• Confidence Rating: ⭐⭐⭐

While the Rams offense is explosive, the Falcons' defense has been surprisingly stout in specific areas, ranking 15th in Defensive DVOA. Atlanta’s primary defensive strength is their pass rush, which ranks 2nd in the NFL with 48 sacks. If they can pressure Stafford and disrupt the rhythm, this game could turn into a more methodical, ground-heavy affair. Additionally, Atlanta's offense ranks just 19th in DVOA, which may struggle to contribute their share to a high total.

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Our Top Player Prop Recommendations

Kyren Williams: Over 64.5

Rushing Yards -112

• My Pick: Kyren Williams Over 64.5 Rushing Yards (-112)

• Bet this at DraftKings

• Confidence Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Kyren Williams remains the engine of the Rams ground game and a model of consistency. He has hit the over on his rushing yardage prop in 80% of his last 5, 15, and 20 games. On the season, he is averaging 73.33 rushing yards per game, nearly 10 yards higher than this current line.

The matchup is highly favorable. The Falcons defense ranks 25th in rushing yards allowed (128.2 per game) and 26th in yards per carry allowed (4.58). Williams ranks 8th among all RBs in total rushing yards (1,100) and 7th in Rushing EPA, indicating he adds significant value every time he touches the ball. Against a defense that ranks 24th in carries allowed, expect the Rams to feed Williams early and often to set up the play-action pass.

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Kyren Williams: Over 9.5

Receiving Yards -110

• My Pick: Kyren Williams Over 9.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

• Bet this at BetMGM

• Confidence Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Kyren Williams is a vital safety valve for Matthew Stafford. He has cleared 9.5 receiving yards in 87.5% of his road games this season. Over his last 15 games, he has hit this over 66.67% of the time, averaging 14.8 receiving yards per game.

The Falcons defense ranks 11th against RBs in the receiving game, but they allow a high volume of completions overall (ranking 8th in receptions allowed). Williams ranks 16th among RBs in Receiving EPA and 4th in receiving air yards for his position. Stafford’s willingness to check down under pressure—which Atlanta will certainly provide—boosts Williams' floor in the receiving game.