NFL Best Touchdown Props for 1/3/2026
- Lee Shipley
- 3 days ago
- 3 min read
To kick off a huge Week 18 Saturday double-header, we’ve teamed up with Pine Sports AI to hunt down the best touchdown value on the board. We’ve crunched the red zone usage and defensive trends for
Panthers vs. Buccaneers and Seahawks vs. 49ers to find the sharpest edges for the regular-season finale.
Here are our top-rated TD prop recommendations for today’s NFL slate.
Carolina Panthers @
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Recommendation: Bucky Irving Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-111)
Confidence Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Bucky Irving is in a prime position to find the end zone today against a Carolina defense that has struggled significantly against the run. The Panthers' defense ranks 27th in the league against opposing running backs, making this a massive statistical mismatch. Irving has been a consistent force in the Buccaneers' backfield, and his usage in the red zone is particularly encouraging.
Over his last 10 games, Irving has hit the over on his touchdown prop 50% of the time. Even more impressive is his performance when playing away from home; in the 2025 season, he has scored in 60% of his road games. While he didn't score in his previous meeting with Carolina in 2025, he did find the end zone in 50% of his matchups against them in 2024.
Irving's efficiency metrics further support this pick. He currently ranks 8th among all RBs in carries per game (16.33) and 3rd in receiving touchdowns per game (0.33). His ability to contribute both on the ground and through the air makes him a dual-threat nightmare in the red zone. With 16 red zone carries and 4 red zone targets this season, the volume is clearly there.
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Recommendation: Mike Evans Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-102)
Confidence Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Mike Evans remains Baker Mayfield's favorite target when the Buccaneers get near the goal line. Evans is facing a Panthers secondary that ranks 8th in the league in defense against wide receivers, but his individual history against Carolina is dominant. In his last three games against the Panthers (spanning 2024 and 2025), Evans has scored a total of 4 touchdowns, hitting the over in 100% of those contests.
Evans red zone involvement is elite. He currently ranks 8th among wide receivers in red zone targets per game (1.29) and 3rd in targets inside the 5-yard line per game (0.71). This season, 100% of his receiving touchdowns have come from targets inside the red zone, and he ranks 2nd at his position for receiving touchdowns inside the 5-yard line.
Despite the Panthers decent overall ranking against WRs, they have allowed 28 passing touchdowns this season, which ranks 24th in the NFL. Evans' size and veteran savvy in the end zone make him a high-probability candidate to exploit this. He has hit the over in 60% of his last 5 games, showing he is in peak form heading into this divisional matchup.
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The Seattle Seahawks @
San Francisco 49ers
Recommendation: Jaxon Smith-Njigba Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+165)
Confidence Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Jaxon Smith-Njigba has emerged as a primary red zone threat for the Seahawks, and he faces a 49ers defense that is currently missing key defensive pieces like Nick Bosa and Fred Warner (both on IR). San Francisco's defense ranks 10th against wide receivers, but the loss of their defensive anchors significantly lowers their efficiency in the red zone.
Smith-Njigba has been incredibly active recently, seeing a high volume of targets. He currently ranks 14th among WRs in total targets (116) and has 14 red zone targets on the season. His ability to create separation in tight spaces makes him the ideal candidate for Geno Smith in scoring situations. He has scored 7 receiving touchdowns this season, ranking 10th at his position.
The matchup narrative is also strong. With the 49ers' pass rush weakened by injuries, Geno Smith should have more time to let routes develop, benefiting a technician like Smith-Njigba. He has hit the over on his touchdown prop in 20% of his last 10 games, but his target share (26%) and air yards share (41%) suggest he is due for positive regression in the scoring department.
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