College Football Championship Saturday 12/6/25 Free Picks & Player Props
- Lee Shipley
- 2 days ago
- 5 min read
The College Football Conference Championship slate on Saturday is absolutely loaded with high-stakes matchups that will determine the final College Football Playoff field. I've analyzed the biggest games—Georgia vs. Alabama, Ohio State vs. Indiana, and Duke vs. Virginia—to bring you the sharpest picks and player props, complete with detailed analysis and confidence ratings.
💰 Game Picks: Spreads, Totals, and Moneylines!
1. Georgia Bulldogs Moneyline vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
The Pick: I am locking in the Georgia Bulldogs Moneyline at -124.
Analysis:
This SEC Championship rematch is the biggest game of the weekend, and while Alabama has dominated the series recently (winning 9 of the last 10), the Bulldogs are poised for revenge. Georgia is the slight favorite, and the betting market is heavily backing them, with over 70% of the moneyline handle going toward the Bulldogs.
Georgia's defense has been lights out, allowing an average of just 7.3 points over their last three games. This unit has only gotten better since the first meeting, a 24-21 Alabama victory.
Crucially, Alabama's offense has been sputtering, failing to score 30 points in their last four FBS games. The Crimson Tide were outgained 411-280 last week against Auburn, and running back Jam Miller is unlikely to play due to a leg injury, which further limits their offensive options.
While Alabama's passing game, led by Ty Simpson, is elite, Georgia's defense has figured things out since the first half of their initial matchup. Expect Kirby Smart to lean on his defense and running game to secure the win and the SEC title.
Bet the Georgia Moneyline at FanDuel
2. Ohio State Buckeyes @ Indiana Hoosiers: Total Points Under 47.5
The Pick: I am taking the Under 47.5 Total Points in the Big Ten Championship.
Analysis:
This matchup features two of the nation's most dominant defenses. Ohio State boasts the nation's No. 1 scoring defense (7.8 PPG allowed), and Indiana is right behind them at No. 2 (10.9 PPG allowed). Ohio State has not allowed more than 16 points all season, a historically elite defensive run.
While both teams feature Heisman-contending quarterbacks—Julian Sayin for Ohio State and Fernando Mendoza for Indiana—the defensive strength in this championship environment is too significant to ignore. Ohio State is coming off an emotional rivalry win against Michigan, and a slight emotional letdown is possible, which could translate to a slower start offensively.
The Hoosiers have struggled to run the ball against top opponents, and Ohio State's defense is built to stop the run. This game is likely to be a defensive slugfest where points are hard to come by, making the Under the sharp play despite some models leaning toward the Over.
Bet the Under 47.5 Total Points at DraftKings
3. Duke Blue Devils +4.5 Spread vs. Virginia Cavaliers
The Pick: I like the underdog Duke Blue Devils +4.5 to cover the spread in the ACC Championship.
Analysis:
Virginia is favored after beating Duke 34-17 earlier this season, but that result appears to be an outlier—the best of Virginia against the worst of Duke. The Blue Devils are coming into this game with momentum, having just put up a season-high 49 points in a victory over Wake Forest.
Duke's offense is highly efficient, ranking 19th nationally in points per game (34.6 PPG). They are also excellent at protecting the ball, with only two FBS teams throwing fewer interceptions. Meanwhile, Virginia's offense has been limping into the championship, averaging over 13 fewer points per game over their last three contests compared to their season average.
The model projects Duke to cover nearly 60% of the time. Expect an inspired effort from the Blue Devils, led by quarterback Darian Mensah, to keep this game tight and cover the spread.
Bet the Duke +4.5 Spread at FanDuel
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📊 The Best Player Props for Championship Saturday!
I've identified four high-value player props that align with the game scripts and statistical trends for Saturday's action.
4. Darian Mensah (Duke) Over 251.5 Passing Yards
Analysis:
Duke quarterback Darian Mensah is the engine of the Blue Devils' offense, averaging 287.5 passing yards per game this season. While he struggled in the first meeting against Virginia, throwing for only 213 yards, that was an anomaly, and he has topped this 251.5 line in nine of his 12 games this season.
Duke's offense ranks 24th in EPA per dropback, indicating efficiency through the air. Given that Duke is the underdog and is expected to rely on its aerial attack to keep pace, the game script favors Mensah throwing frequently. Head coach Manny Diaz is expected to unleash the offense, and Mensah is primed for a bounce-back performance in the biggest game of the year.
Bet Darian Mensah Over 251.5 Passing Yards at FanDuel
(Note: The link provided in the research is for the Duke spread, but the odds and line for the prop are confirmed in the news.)
5. Trell Harris (Virginia) Over 67.5 Receiving Yards
Analysis:
Virginia wide receiver Trell Harris is the clear top target for the Cavaliers, leading the team with 73 targets and 51 catches. This volume gives him multiple paths to hitting the Over on 67.5 yards.
The Duke defense is significantly softer against the pass than the run, allowing a high EPA per dropback. They rank in the bottom 9th percentile in allowing explosive passing plays.
Virginia is expected to pass often to exploit this weakness, and Harris is quarterback Chandler Morris's primary read. His high target share and the favorable defensive matchup make 67.5 yards a very attainable target.
Bet Trell Harris Over 67.5 Receiving Yards at FanDuel
(Note: The link provided in the research is for the Duke spread, but the odds and line for the prop are confirmed in the news.)
6. Gunner Stockton (Georgia) Under 195.5 Passing Yards
Analysis:
Georgia quarterback Gunner Stockton struggled in the first meeting against Alabama, throwing for only 130 yards on a season-low 20 pass attempts. This was partly due to Alabama's defense, which ranks 9th in the country in expected points added (EPA) per dropback against.
Coach Kirby Smart is known for his conservative approach in big games, preferring to shorten the game and rely on his defense and running backs like Nate Frazier. With Alabama's defense being stout against the pass, Smart is likely to take the ball out of Stockton's hands again. The game script, combined with the defensive matchup, strongly suggests Stockton will stay under this line.
Bet Gunner Stockton Under 195.5 Passing Yards at FanDuel
(Note: The link provided in the research is for the Duke spread, but the odds and line for the prop are confirmed in the news.)
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