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Hardee Picks NFL Sunday Week 9 Full Preview - 11/5/23



The SV Outlet Preview

  • This article will cover the ins and outs of the NFL's week 9 Sunday game. In order for you to get the material that is most prominent to you, the slate will be broken down by game time. Each game will then include betting odds (spread & game total), injuries, game outlook, key matchups, and trends. Following the game slate, there will be player props, DFS considerations, and it will be capped off with a 4-leg parlay compiled with my best bets. Enjoy the read and let's eat!


(Image credit to NFL via https://www.nfl.com/schedules/2023/reg9/ )


9:30 am Germany Game


- Miami Dolphins vs Kansas City Chiefs


  • Current Betting Lines

    • KC Chiefs -1.5, O/U 50.5


  • Injury Updates

    • KC Injuries

      • RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire (illness): Out

      • WR Richie James (knee): Questionable

      • LB Willie Gay (back): Questionable

    • MIA Dolphins

      • G Rob Hunt (hamstring): Out

      • S Brandon Jones (concussion): Out

      • OT Terron Armstead (knee): Questionable

      • CB Xavien Howard (groin): Questionable

      • C Connor Williams (groin): Questionable

      • WR Braxton Berrios (hamstring): Questionable

      • CB Justin Bethel (foot): Questionable

      • WR River Cracraft (shoulder): Questionable

      • TE Durham Smythe (ankle): Questionable

      • CB Nik Needham (Achilles): Questionable


  • Game Outlook

    • Two powerhouses of the AFC travel to Germany for this international matchup. The 6-2 KC Chiefs are coming off a bad loss to the Denver Broncos last week that snapped a 6-game win streak as Patrick Mahomes struggled while dealing with flu-like symptoms. The Chiefs flew out Thursday and practiced most of this week at home instead of using the week to get acclimated to the Frankfurt time zone. Although this approach is different than most other teams strategy when it comes to international games, Andy Reid seems to prefer the late departure of the states. Reid and the Chiefs are 2-0 in international games, beating the 2015 Lions in London and the 2019 Chargers in Mexico City. Unlike previous Patrick Mahomes led teams, this years Chiefs rely heavily on their stout defense who is 2nd in scoring defense (16.1 ppg) and 4th in total defense (287.8 ypg). They will need to perform at their highest capability to lock down this Dolphins high powered offense.

    • As for Miami, this team is led by their offensive explosion this season. They are leading the NFL in passing (301.5 ypg), rushing (151.8 ypg), and scoring (33.9 ppg). They have won 3 of their last 4 games and have pulled ahead of Buffalo for the division lead. In addition, the former Chief Tyreek Hill is having the best receiving year of all time so far, surpassing 1,000 yards in just 8 games. This is the first time he will matchup against his former team, and after his latest statements in the media, he will be looking to take it to them. The Dolphins have struggled in international games, going 1-4 overall. This is their first international game outside of London.

    • Overall, this will go down as the most watched international game of all time. The reigning Super Bowl champions are needing a big bounce back, and Miami is looking to prove the can contend with the top teams. Miami is 0-2 against teams .500 and above on the year. I think the Chiefs pull this one out on the back of Mahomes, Kelce, and the defense.


  • Matchups and Trends

    • Key players to watch are Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and Isiah Pacheco. Tyreek is not someone who I need to highlight why we need to watch him, but this KC defense has only allowed the opposing team's leading receiver to over 80 yards two times this year. With a line at 93.5 yards and Tyreek playing for revenge, which side will come out on top. As for Travis Kelce, he has seemed to be humbled just slightly this season. With no other true top end receiver, his numbers per game have regressed due to double coverage. At 79.5 yards, he has only eclipsed this twice in seven games. Lastly, Pacheco has grown stronger and healthier through the year but has hit a rushing wall as of late. His last 4 games have yielded less than 65 yards per game on the ground. No CEH this week calls for more ground work, and 58.5 yards can be reached against this Fins team that has allowed over 100 yards per game on the ground this season.


1:00 pm Games


- Seattle Seahawks vs Baltimore Ravens


  • Current Betting Lines

    • BAL Ravens -6.5, O/U 44


  • Injury Updates

  • SEA Seahawks

    • G Phil Haynes (calf): Questionable

    • DT Austin Faoliu (knee): Questionable

    • G Anthony Bradford (ankle, knee): Questionable

    • RB Kenny McIntosh (knee): Questionable

  • BAL Ravens

    • OT Morgan Moses (shoulder): Doubtful

    • S Marcus Williams (hamstring): Questionable

    • CB Rock Ya-Sin (illness): Questionable

    • CB Daryl Worley (shoulder): Questionable


  • Game Outlook

    • Seattle has been hot, winning 5 of the last 6 and taking over control of the NFC West from the struggling 49ers. Seattle has been led by their defense, which over the last 4 games gave up 9 total points and 0 touchdowns in the second half. In addition, they bolstered their d-line at the trade deadline by adding Leonard Williams. Lastly, Zach Charbonnet has set himself as the strong second back. behind Kenneth Walker. Although he only has a season high of 31% snap count, he ranks top-10 in yards per touch this season.

    • Baltimore has lived on the run game this season with Lamar Jackson and Gus Edwards. In addition, rookie WR Zay Flowers looks like a star and is building chemistry in this offense. Their offense has led them to a 1.5 game lead on the. AFC North.

    • Overall, these teams seem to have a strong matchup against. Expect this game to be a battle between two run heavy offenses all the way down to the final minutes.


  • Matchups and Trends

    • Key players to watch are Gus Edwards, Noah Fant, and Boye Mafe. Gus Edwards has handled 66% of the Ravens carries in the last two games and has 3 straight games with 14+ rush attempts. As for Noah Fant, the Ravens just gave up 10 catches, 95 yards, and 1 TD to Trey McBride. BAL is giving up 32.25 ypg on average to TE. I think his line set at 18.5 is too low, especially when he is 5-1 going over that mark on the season. Lastly, linebacker Boye Mafe has 5 straight games with a sack recorded. Lamar has been sacked 20 times this year averaging 2.5 sacks a game. At +145 for over 0.25 sacks, I will be riding the train and will be. watching for big number 53.


- Arizona Cardinals vs Cleveland Browns


  • Current Betting Lines

    • CLE Browns -11.5, O/U 38.5


  • Injury Updates

  • ARI Cardinals

    • QB Kyler Murray (knee): Out

    • WR Michael Wilson (shoulder): Questionable

    • RB Emari Demercado (toe): Out

    • WR Greg Dortch (ankle): Questionable

    • DL Kevin Strong (calf): Questionable

    • LB Krys Barnes (hamstring): Questionable

    • OL Tystan Colon (calf): Out

  • CLE Browns

    • QB Deshaun Watson (shoulder): Good to go

    • WR David Bell (knee): Out

    • CB Greg Newsome II (groin): Out

    • DE Alex Wright (knee): Out

    • OT Dawand Jones (shoulder): Questionable


  • Game Outlook

    • The Browns are glad to have a healthy Deshaun Watson back at the helm. He has been dealing with a rotator cuff injury and was rehabbing for about a month. Over his time out, the Browns back up QBs threw 8 INTs in 4 games. Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt are doing their best to replace the hole Nick Chubb left earlier in the season with the brutal knee injury.

    • The Cardinals are approaching Kyler Murray's return, but Clayton Tune will be starting in this one. After dealing Dobbs at the deadline, Tune will make his first NFL start against a top-5 defense this season. In addition, top current RB Emari Demercado is out with a toe injury. Everyone expects this Cards team to struggle and its understandable.


  • Matchups and Trends

    • Key players to watch are Deshaun Watson, Jerome Ford, and Myles Garrett. You can see the theme. Stay away from Arizona and target the Browns. Watson will want to bounce back from the injury against this weak defense. Jerome Ford is in the best RB spot for the week. A double digit favorite going against a bottom-5 run defense. Lastly, I expect Myles Garrett to wreck havoc against an inexperienced QB and a banged up OL.


- Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Houston Texans


  • Current Betting Lines

    • HOU Texans -3, O/U 40


  • Injury Updates

  • TB Buccaneers

    • G Matt Feiler (knee): Out

    • DT Logan Hall (groin): Out

    • DT Vita Vea (groin): Questionable

    • S Christian Izien (illness): Questionable

    • S Kaevon Merriweather (ankle): Questionable

  • HOU Texans

    • RB Dameon Pierce (ankle): Out

    • WR Robert Woods (foot): Out

    • TE Brevin Jordan (foot): Out

    • DT Sheldon Rankins (knee): Questionable


  • Game Outlook

    • The Buccaneers are 3-4, losing 3 straight and 4 of the last 5 games. Although they are struggling, this team still has high playoff hopes, only being a half game back from Atlanta. Mike Evans has not lost a step, but almost every other position has. Rookie safety from Rutgers Christian Izien has stepped up in the secondary, but an illness has him questionable for this game. In addition, Tampa is 1-4 all time versus Houston and has never won in Houston.

    • The Texans had a hot start and have struggled as of late, losing their last game to the then winless Panthers. CJ Stroud is the real deal, but teams are keying on him due to the Texans having the 23rd ranked rush offense. I expect a bounce back from the Texans and especially with Nico Collins.


  • Matchups and Trends

    • Key players to watch are Nico Collins, Mike Evans, and Cade Otton. Nico Collins has struggled the last three weeks, but still has a 22% target share over that time and is facing a bottom-10 pass defense. Mike Evans has 5 REC TDs this year and is going against a bottom-10 pass defense. He has a 23% target share and a 42% end zone target share. Lastly, Cade Otton is a sneaky guy to watch. Otton has received a 16% target share the last two weeks and Houston allows the 2nd most catches to TE.


- Chicago Bears vs New Orleans Saints


  • Current Betting Lines

    • NO Saints -8.5, O/U 41


  • Injury Updates

  • CHI Bears

    • QB Justin Fields (thumb): Doubtful

    • LB Tremaine Edmunds (knee): Out

    • S Jaquan Brisker (concussion): Out

    • G Nate Davis (ankle): Out

    • OT Braxton Jones (neck): Questionable

    • DB Terrell Smith (ankle/illness): Out

  • NO Saints

    • LB Ty Summers (concussion, hamstring): Out

    • RB Kendre Miller (illness): Questionable

    • DT Malcolm Roach (illness): Questionable


  • Game Outlook

    • The Bears will be getting a third start out of Tyson Bagent. Surprisingly, they were buyers at the deadline getting Montez Sweat from Washington. In addition, the RB coach and the defensive coordinator were fired this week. The feelings in Chicago are extremely weird for a 2-6 team that should be focusing on the draft.

    • The Saints are still in the hunt for the weak NFC South title. Derek Carr will continue to try and lead this team. Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave look to perform against the this bottom of the barrel defense.


  • Matchups and Trends

    • Key players to watch are Chris Olave and Alvin Kamara. Olave clearly struggled last week. Despite that, he had a 31% target share and now takes on this bottom-10 Bears secondary. Kamara can run and catch and I think 100+ all purpose yards is extremely doable.



- Minnesota Vikings vs Atlanta Falcons


  • Current Betting Lines

    • ATL Falcons -3.5, O/U 37.5


  • Injury Updates

  • MIN Vikings

    • DL Dean Lowry (groin): Out

    • LB Brian Asamoah (ankle): Questionable

    • WR Jalen Nailor (hamstring): Questionable

    • G Chris Reed (foot): Questionable

    • OT Christian Darrisaw (groin): Questionable

  • ATL Falcons

    • WR Drake London (groin): Out

    • S DeMarcco Hellams (hamstring): Out

    • FB Keith Smith (concussion): Out


  • Game Outlook

    • The Vikings obviously have very little hope left. Justin Jefferson is still on IR and Kirk Cousins tore his ACL. They just traded for Josh Dobbs, but 5th round rookie from BYU Jaren Hall will get the nod.

    • The Falcons are coming off a loss to the Will Levis led Titans. Art Smith has announced Taylor Heinicke will be the starting QB moving forward. He is an upgrade to the passing game and turnovers, but with no Drake London this week there is very slim options.


  • Matchups and Trends

    • Key players to watch are Alexander Mattison and KhaDarel Hodge. I expect Alexander Mattison to look even worse than he has been. Having a rookie QB, going against the number 1 rush defense, and only getting 46% of the carries the past two weeks. KhaDarel Hodge just put up 3 catches for 75 yards last week. Heinicke has allows targeted his WRs when he was starting in WSH. With no Drake London, 14.5 yards is too low of a line against a very weak pass defense.


- Los Angeles Rams vs Green Bay Packers


  • Current Betting Lines

    • GB Packers -3, O/U 38.5


  • Injury Updates

  • LA Rams

    • QB Matthew Stafford (thumb): Questionable

    • WR Puka Nacua (knee): Questionable

    • OT Rob Havenstein (calf): Questionable

    • CB Cobie Durant (shoulder): Questionable

    • DT Larrell Murchison (knee): Questionable

    • LB Ernest Jones (knee): Out

    • TE Hunter Long (hamstring): Out

  • GB Packers

    • LB Quay Walker (groin): Questionable

    • S Rudy Ford (calf): Questionable


  • Game Outlook

    • The Rams are stating Stafford is unlikely to play and Puka Nacua is questionable as well. It looks like Brett Rypien will start for this offense. It looks like the injury bug is hitting LA again. I expect this offense to struggle without most of their key players.

    • The Packers have lost 4 straight and 5 of the last 6. Jordan Love looks to be way less efficient than we assumed earlier this year. He is 25th in QBR, 26th in completion percentage, and he is tied for 2nd in most interceptions thrown. The one bright spot is Aaron Jones is expected to be cut loose and play at 100%.


  • Matchups and Trends

    • Key players to watch are Christian Watson and Aaron Jones. Watson ranks 5th in downfield usage and now faces the weak Rams secondary. LA allows the 3rd most 20+ yard plays to opposing WRs. Aaron Jones broke out week 1 but has dealt with a hamstring injury since. He finally returns to full strength and the Packers will have to lean on him to have a chance.


- Washington Commanders vs New England Patriots


  • Current Betting Lines

    • NE Patriots -2.5, O/U 40.5


  • Injury Updates

  • WSH Commanders

    • WR Curtis Samuel (toe): Out

    • G Ricky Stromberg (knee): Out

    • S Percy Butler (calf): Questionable

  • NE Patriots

    • WR DeVante Parker (concussion): Out

    • LB Josh Uche (ankle/toe): Questionable

    • DL Christian Barmore (knee): Questionable

    • LB Ja’Whaun Bentley (hamstring): Questionable

    • TE Pharaoh Brown (back): Questionable

    • OT Trent Brown (ankle, knee): Questionable

    • DL Davon Godchaux (illness): Questionable

    • CB Jonathan Jones (knee): Questionable

    • OL Vederian Lowe (ankle): Questionable

    • WR Tyquan Thornton (foot): Questionable

    • DL Deatrich Wise Jr. (shoulder): Questionable

    • OT Calvin Anderson (illness): Out


  • Game Outlook

    • The Commanders lost both Montez Sweat and Chase Young on the D-Line. Although the offense still is clicking, I expect them the give up more total yards with a worst pass rush on the edges. On offense Howell looks great, and Terry McLaurin is due for a big game.

    • The Patriots are extremely beat up. Both Kendrick Bourne out for the season and Devante Parker out this week, leaving Juju Smith-Schuster and Demario Douglas as the main WRs. Home field advantage will help them here and Mac Jones needs to step up.


  • Matchups and Trends

    • Key players to watch are Terry McLaurin and Demario Douglas. McLaurin is averaging a 34% target share over the last 3 weeks and ranked top 5 in usage over this timeframe while now facing the Patriots weak secondary. Demario Douglas ran 80% of the routes the past 2 weeks. He will see more work this week against a defense that just got worse at pass rush.



4:00 pm Games


- Indianapolis Colts vs Carolina Panthers


  • Current Betting Lines

    • IND Colts -2.5, O/U 43.5


  • Injury Updates

  • IND Colts

    • WR Josh Downs (knee): Questionable

    • OT Braden Smith (hip/wrist): Out

    • CB JuJu Brents (quad): Out

    • LB Zaire Franklin (knee): Doubtful

    • S Rodney Thomas (knee): Questionable

    • OT Blake Freeland (back): Questionable

  • CAR Panthers

    • S Vonn Bell (quad): Doubtful

    • WR Laviska Shenault Jr. (ankle): Out

    • OLB Justin Houston (hamstring): Out

    • WR DJ Chark Jr. (elbow): Questionable

    • CB Donte Jackson (quad): Questionable

    • LB Claudin Cherelus (knee): Out


  • Game Outlook

    • The Colts will be lead by the run game, backed by the 2nd leading rusher in Zack Moss and the superstar talent in Jonathan Taylor. JT had his biggest game of the year last week. In addition, Josh Downs and Michael Pittman are steady targets Minshew can rely on down the field.

    • The Panthers got their first win last week and now Frank Reich takes on his old team. Their offense is struggling, placing 25th in points per game (18.1 ppg). Chuba Hubbard will start at RB this week and he is averaging 5 yards per carry since entering the league.


  • Matchups and Trends

    • Key players to watch are Josh Downs and Chuba Hubbard. Downs is averaging 7 targets per game this season. He currently ranks 7th at beating man coverage. Expect him to break out this week. Chuba Hubbard has established the RB 1 position and is getting 71% of the carries. The Colts give up over 70 yards per game to starting RBs.


- Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles


  • Current Betting Lines

    • PHI Eagles -3, O/U 46.5


  • Injury Updates

  • DAL Cowboys

    • OT Tyron Smith (neck): Questionable

    • OT Chuma Edoga (ankle, knee): Questionable

  • PHI Eagles

    • CB Bradley Roby (shoulder): Out

    • RB Boston Scott (personal): Out

    • G/C Cam Jurgens (foot): Out

    • TE Grant Calcaterra (concussion): Out


  • Game Outlook

    • The Cowboys are coming off a big win versus the Rams. Now it is the game of the week as one of the biggest rivalries in the NFL kicks off. The way to beat Philly is through the air, and CeeDee Lamb showed they can do that last week.

    • The Eagles have only 1 loss this year and are starting their tough stretch of games in a row. AJ Brown is now the record holder for WR with the most consecutive 125+ yard games. The two teams who beat Dallas this year, SF and ARI, put up extreme ground numbers. Expect Swift to be used early and often.


  • Matchups and Trends

    • Key players to watch are Tony Pollard and AJ Brown. Tony Pollard is sketchy this week. He faces the number 1 rush defense in the league and currently ranks bottom 5 in a handful of advanced RB efficiency metrics. AJ Brown and Jalen Hurts connection is so strong. I think the 125+ yard streak can extend this week against a banged uo secondary.



- New York Giants vs Las Vegas Raiders


  • Current Betting Lines

    • LV Raiders -1.5, O/U 37.5


  • Injury Updates

  • NY Giants

    • QB Daniel Jones (neck): Good to go

    • OT Andrew Thomas (hamstring): Questionable

    • OT Evan Neal (ankle): Questionable

    • TE Darren Waller (hamstring): Out

    • K Graham Gano (knee): Out

    • QB Tyrod Taylor (ribs): Out

    • RB Jashaun Corbin (hamstring): Questionable

  • LV Raiders

    • LB Robert Spillane (hand): Questionable

    • LB Divine Deablo (ankle): Out

    • FB Jakob Johnson (concussion): Out

    • LB Luke Masterson (concussion): Out

    • OT Thayer Munford (neck): Out



  • Game Outlook

    • The Giants are expecting Daniel Jones back, and Barkley looks healthy. Now Darren Waller opens things up for players like Jaylin Hyatt. The Giants are last in points per game, total offense, and passing offense.

    • The Raiders offense is almost as bad, ranking 30th in points per game and 31st in total offense. They fired the head coach and GM this week, and have benched Jimmy G and will start Aidan O'Connell. Frustration is showing with this team.


  • Matchups and Trends

    • Key players to watch are Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs. Saquon is back, going for 35+ touches last week. With Daniel Jones back, I suspect teams cannot stack the box as easy, opening gaps for him. As for Jacobs, this is a great back up game. Only a second time starter at the helm, be prepared for more check downs and sceeens. In addition, NY is 24th at stopping the run.


SNF


- Buffalo Bills vs Cincinnati Bengals


  • Current Betting Lines

    • CIN Bengals -1.5, O/U 50.5


  • Injury Updates

  • BUF Bills

    • LB AJ Klein (back): Out

    • LB Baylon Spector (hamstring): Out

  • CIN Bengals

    • RB Joe Mixon (chest): Questionable

    • G Max Scharping (knee): Questionable

    • DT Josh Tupou (shoulder): Out

    • LB Akeem Davis-Gaither (knee): Questionable


  • Game Outlook

    • The Bills are returning back to Cinncy and so is Damar Hamlin. This game will be emotional for this Buffalo team. The Bills need the uplift of emotion after struggling the last couple weeks.

    • The Bengals are red hot as of late. Joe Burrow's calf looks to be back to 100%. This team is trying to catch the Ravens and a win against another Super Bowl caliber team will uplift them through the season.


  • Matchups and Trends

    • Key players to watch are Gabe Davis, Dalton Kincaid, and Tee Higgins. Gabe Davis role has changed. Last week, he had 12 targets. With no Dawson Knox, 3 WR sets are now more common. He had a 31% target share and will be open for more easy receptions close to medium range. Dalton Kincaid has the TE 1 role now with Dawson Knox having surgery. He ran 85% of the routes last week and he now ranks 4th in usage the past two weeks for TEs. Tee Higgins is finally fully healthy again. I think his injury caused his lines to drop, and with the game with the second highest total, he should get more usage.


Player Props I am Leaning


* These are leans and not official plays. Research what you like best*

💎 KC I. Pacheco O 54.5 rush yards (-115)

💎 SEA B. Mafe O 0.25 sacks (+145)

💎 CLE J. Ford O 51.5 rush yards (-115)

💎 TB M. Evans ATTD (+175)

💎 NO A. Kamara O 99.5 Rush+Rec yards (-115)

💎 MIN A. Mattison U 41.5 Rush yards (-110)

💎 GB C. Watson O 43.5 rec yards (-110)

💎 NE D. Douglas O 47.5 rec yards (-115)

💎 CAR C. Hubbard O 47.5 rush yards (-115)

💎 PHI AJ Brown 100+ rec yards (+155)

💎 NY S. Barkley ATTD (+100)

💎 BUF G. Davis O 3.5 receptions (+135)


Parlay I am Riding from the Write Up

  • Leg 1: BAL Gus Edwards Over 55.5 Rush Yards

  • Leg 2: CHI Tyson Bagent Over 0.5 Interceptions

  • Leg 3: NE Demario Douglas Over 47.5 Rec Yards

  • Leg 4: CLE Jerome Ford Over 50.5 Rush Yards

    • +941 0.5 Units

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