Top NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Props: Week 17 (12/28/25)
- Lee Shipley
- Dec 27, 2025
- 5 min read
It is Week 17, folks—crunch time! The slate is absolutely loaded with matchups that scream "points," and I’m here for it. I’ve done the dirty work this week—digging through red zone targets, picking apart defensive struggles, and tracking the scoring trends—so you don't have to. Before we dive into the winners, don't forget that OutLet Sports Ventures is one of the best places to find free picks every day. Now, let’s get into the most lock-worthy touchdown props for this weeks NFL Games!
Tee Higgins Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Matchup: Arizona Cardinals @ Cincinnati Bengals
Confidence Rating:⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Recommendation: Tee Higgins to score a touchdown: Bet on Kalshi for best value!
📊 Recent Performance & Trends:
Tee Higgins has been an absolute scoring machine lately. Over his last 5 games, he has found the end zone in 80% of contests, averaging 1.2 touchdowns per game in that span. His consistency extends further back as well, hitting the over on this prop in 70% of his last 10 games and 65% of his last 20. When playing as a visitor this season, his efficiency actually increases, hitting the over in 83.33% of those games.
📰 Matchup Analysis & News Synthesis:
The Bengals passing attack remains one of the most potent in the league, ranking 3rd in total passing touchdowns (31). Higgins is a primary beneficiary of this volume, especially in high-leverage situations. He currently ranks 3rd among all wide receivers in total receiving touchdowns (10) and 2nd in receiving touchdowns per game (0.77).
The Cardinals defense has struggled significantly against the pass, and while they rank 8th against the position specifically, the sheer volume of the Bengals' offense (2nd in pass attempts) creates too many opportunities to ignore. Higgins is a preferred target in the "money" zone, ranking 12th in targets inside the 5-yard line and 16th in targets inside the 10-yard line.
Trey McBride Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Matchup: Arizona Cardinals @ Cincinnati Bengals
Confidence Rating:⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Recommendation: Trey McBride to score a touchdown: Bet on Kalshi for best Value!
📊 Recent Performance & Trends:
Trey McBride has established himself as the premier target in the Cardinals' offense. While his 5-game hit rate is 40%, his 10-game trend is much more indicative of his role, hitting the over in 70% of those contests. Most importantly, McBride is a road warrior; when playing as a visitor this season, he has hit the over on his touchdown prop in a staggering 85.71% of games.
📰 Matchup Analysis & News Synthesis:
This is a "must-play" based on the statistical mismatch. The Cincinnati Bengals' defense is currently ranked 32nd (dead last) in the NFL against the tight end position. They are allowing a 66.53% completion rate and rank 31st in touchdown percentage allowed (5.21%).
McBride’s usage is unparalleled at his position. He ranks 1st among all tight ends in targets (148), red zone targets (32), receptions (109), and receiving yards (1,098). He is the focal point of the Arizona attack, boasting a 27% target share (1st among TEs). Against a Bengals defense that ranks 31st in DVOA, McBride is the most likely player on the field to find the end zone for Arizona.
Kyren Williams Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Matchup: Los Angeles Rams @ Atlanta Falcons
Confidence Rating:⭐⭐⭐⭐
Recommendation: Kyren Williams to score a touchdown: Bet on Kalshi for Best Value!
📊 Recent Performance & Trends:
Kyren Williams remains the engine of the Rams offense. He has hit the over on his touchdown prop in 60% of his last 5 games and 70% of his last 10. His season-long reliability is elite, with a 66.67% hit rate over 15 games. He averages nearly a touchdown per game (0.87) and has been particularly effective in high-volume roles, hitting the over in 70% of his last 20 games dating back to last season.
📰 Matchup Analysis & News Synthesis:
The Falcons defense presents a balanced challenge, but they have shown vulnerability on the ground, ranking 25th in rushing yards allowed (128.2 per game) and 26th in yards per carry allowed (4.58). Williams is one of the most utilized red zone weapons in football, ranking 3rd among RBs in red zone rushing touchdowns (10) and 2nd in rushing touchdowns inside the 10-yard line (10).
The Rams offensive scheme relies heavily on Williams' efficiency (7th in Rushing EPA). With the Falcons ranking 31st in sack rate, the Rams should have no trouble moving the ball into the red zone, where Williams' 3.13 red zone carries per game (9th) make him a near-certainty to get multiple looks near the goal line.
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Travis Etienne Jr. Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Matchup: Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts
Confidence Rating:⭐⭐⭐⭐
Recommendation: Travis Etienne Jr. to score a touchdown: Bet on Kalshi for Best Value!
📊 Recent Performance & Trends:
Travis Etienne Jr. is heating up at the right time for bettors. He has hit the over in 80% of his last 5 games, averaging a massive 1.4 touchdowns per game in that window. He has also been dominant in this specific matchup; in his last meeting with the Colts in 2025, he hit the over with a 2-touchdown performance. When playing on the road, he maintains a strong 71.43% hit rate this season.
📰 Matchup Analysis & News Synthesis:
The Colts' defense is a tale of two units. While they are stout against the run (5th in rushing yards allowed), they are abysmal against the pass, ranking 30th in passing yards allowed. This actually benefits Etienne, who is one of the best receiving backs in the league. He ranks 2nd among all RBs in receiving touchdowns (6) and 2nd in receiving touchdowns per game (0.4).
Etienne is a dual-threat nightmare in the red zone. He ranks 7th in red zone carries (49) and 2nd in red zone receiving touchdowns (5). The Colts' defense ranks 30th in missed tackles, which plays perfectly into Etienne's ability to create yards after contact and find the end zone on broken plays.
Jauan Jennings Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Matchup: Chicago Bears @ San Francisco 49ers
Confidence Rating:⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Recommendation: Jauan Jennings to score a touchdown: Bet on Kalshi for Best Value!
📊 Recent Performance & Trends:
Jauan Jennings has emerged as a primary scoring threat in the 49ers' elite offense. He has hit the over in 80% of his last 5 games, averaging 1.0 touchdowns per game. His historical performance against the Bears is also noteworthy, as he hit the over in their 2024 matchup with a 2-touchdown outing. He has been consistent throughout the season, finding the end zone in 53.85% of his games.
📰 Matchup Analysis & News Synthesis:
The matchup against the Chicago Bears is highly favorable. The Bears' defense ranks 31st in the NFL against wide receivers and 31st in touchdown percentage allowed (5.21%). They are also 32nd in rushing yards allowed, which forces defenses to stack the box, leaving Jennings in one-on-one situations.
Jennings is a red zone specialist. He ranks 3rd among all wide receivers in red zone targets (21) and 3rd in red zone receiving touchdowns (7). He is also highly trusted in tight windows, ranking 4th in targets inside the 10-yard line. With the 49ers ranking 1st in third-down conversion rate, they sustain long drives that frequently end in the red zone, where Jennings is the go-to option.
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