NFL Best Touchdown Props for 11/2/25

This NFL schedule is packed with matchups that offer significant scoring opportunities due to key injuries and defensive mismatches.

Based on expert analysis and statistical models, and the help from JaXon AI by Pine Sports, we have broken down the top Anytime Touchdown Scorer picks for tomorrow, focusing on the players with the strongest combination of volume, red zone usage, and favorable defensive matchups. Let’s get paid this week!

💰 High-Confidence Anytime Touchdown Scorers!

These players are the focal points of their respective offenses, face vulnerable defenses, and are projected by models to have a high probability of finding the end zone.

1. Christian McCaffrey (San Francisco 49ers)

Confidence Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Recommendation & Rationale

McCaffrey is the safest bet on the board tomorrow, even at the heavy price of -222. The 49ers are facing a New York Giants defense that is severely depleted and struggles immensely against the run. McCaffrey's role as the engine of the offense, combined with the Giants' defensive woes, makes this a near-must-play.

Recent Performance & Season Trends

McCaffrey has been a consistent scoring threat, totaling at least 139 total yards in five games this season. While his rushing yardage has been inconsistent (only topping 70 rushing yards once this year), his overall usage and red zone volume remain elite. He is the primary goal-line option for San Francisco, ensuring he gets the first crack at scoring opportunities.

Matchup Analysis: 49ers at Giants

The matchup is ideal. The Giants possess one of the weakest run defenses in the league, allowing 148.9 rushing yards per game. Furthermore, the Giants' defense is allowing 382.4 total yards per game and is prone to "meltdowns," such as allowing 33 fourth-quarter points two weeks ago. With the 49ers favored by 2.5 points, the game script should allow McCaffrey to grind down the clock and punch in scores late in the game.

News Integration & Injury Impact

The Giants' defense is already struggling, but their offense suffered a major blow with rookie running back Cam Skattebo out due to injury. This injury could force the Giants' offense to struggle to sustain drives, giving the 49ers' offense more possessions. The 49ers' offense, even with Mac Jones starting at quarterback, is built around McCaffrey's ability to control the game, making his scoring probability extremely high.

2. Josh Jacobs (Green Bay Packers)

Confidence Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Recommendation & Rationale

Josh Jacobs is listed at -145 to score, and the statistical models see strong value here, projecting him to score in 80% of simulations. Jacobs has been a touchdown machine recently, and the matchup against the Carolina Panthers is highly favorable for running backs.

Recent Performance & Season Trends

Jacobs has scored a touchdown in six of seven games this season, including in each of the last four contests. He has been particularly hot lately, recording seven touchdowns over his last four games, including three different multi-touchdown performances. He ranks second in the NFL with nine rushing touchdowns, demonstrating his elite red zone usage.

Matchup Analysis: Panthers at Packers

The Panthers' run defense is highly exploitable. Carolina allowed 216 yards and two touchdowns to Buffalo running back James Cook just last week. Overall, the Panthers are allowing 4.6 yards per rush, ranking 24th in the NFL. This weakness plays directly into Jacobs' strength and Green Bay's offensive balance. The Panthers are also giving up a 26th-ranked rush per touchdown rate of 21.56.

News Integration & Injury Impact

While Jacobs is dealing with a lingering calf injury that limited his usage last week, the fact that he is still projected to score in 80% of simulations speaks volumes about the quality of the matchup and his importance to the Packers' offense. The Packers are heavy favorites (-13.5), suggesting a positive game script where they will lean heavily on the run game to close out the victory.

3. Rome Odunze (Chicago Bears)

Confidence Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Recommendation & Rationale

Rome Odunze at +125 offers excellent value, especially considering the statistical model projects him to score in 64% of simulations. This is a high-volume receiver facing the worst scoring defense in the league.

Recent Performance & Season Trends

Odunze was a touchdown-scoring machine early in the season, finding the end zone in each of the first four games. Although he has gone scoreless over his last three weeks, he remains a featured part of the offense, averaging seven targets per gameover that span. Last week, he had seven receptions for 114 yards on 10 targets against the Ravens, showing his high ceiling.

Matchup Analysis: Bears at Bengals

The Cincinnati Bengals have the worst scoring defense in the NFL, allowing 31.6 points per game. Chicago’s defense leaves plenty of room for WR1s, allowing a 12.7% touchdown rate (31st) to the position. With starting running back D'Andre Swift (groin) out, the Bears may be forced to rely more on the passing game, increasing Odunze's opportunities.

News Integration & Injury Impact

The Bengals' defense is coming off a disastrous performance where they allowed 39 points to the previously winless Jets. This unit is clearly struggling. The absence of D'Andre Swift for the Bears shifts offensive focus, and Odunze, the No. 9 overall pick, is positioned to capitalize on the Bengals porous secondary.

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🎯 Top Longshot & Value Anytime Touchdown Scorers!

These picks carry higher odds but are supported by strong red zone usage, favorable defensive metrics, or significant injury-related opportunity.

4. Cole Kmet (Chicago Bears)

Confidence Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Recommendation & Rationale

Kmet at +380 is a fantastic value play. The Bengals have been historically bad against opposing tight ends this season, making Kmet a prime candidate for a red zone score.

Matchup Analysis: Bears at Bengals

The Cincinnati Bengals have given up the most touchdowns to the tight end position with 10, which is four more than the next-worst team. This is a massive defensive weakness that the Bears' offense should exploit. The Bengals have also given up a ton of receiving yards to tight ends, further indicating their struggles in covering the position.

5. TreVeyon Henderson (New England Patriots)

Confidence Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Recommendation & Rationale

While specific odds are not listed in the research, the narrative surrounding TreVeyon Henderson suggests he is a high-value pick due to a massive increase in workload and goal-line opportunities. With Rhamondre Stevenson out, Henderson is set to be the Patriots' workhorse.

Recent Performance & Opportunity

Henderson just registered a season-high yard total on his second-highest carry share of the year against Cleveland last week. With Rhamondre Stevenson set to sit out Sunday’s game with a toe injury, Henderson is expected to see the vast majority of carries and all goal-line carries for a team averaging 26.6 points per game.

Matchup Analysis: Falcons at Patriots

Henderson faces an Atlanta Falcons team that is posting the second-lowest defensive success rate against the run (52.2%). This is a prime spot for a running back to dominate the volume and capitalize on a soft run defense, especially near the goal line.

News Integration & Narrative

The Patriots are coming off a strong win and are favored against an inconsistent Falcons team. The focus will be on Drake Maye, but the goal-line work is Henderson's to lose. The injury to Stevenson creates a clear path to high-volume touches and scoring opportunities that are not yet fully reflected in the market price.