Rams Vs. Seahawks NFL Best Bets & Props 12/18/25
- Lee Shipley
- 4 days ago
- 3 min read
Get ready for a massive NFC West clash as the Los Angeles Rams head to Seattle to take on the Seahawks. This is the definition of a heavyweight fight: both teams are sitting at a dominant 11-3 and fighting for the top seed in the NFC. With the division title and a first-round bye potentially on the line, this "DVOA Bowl" rematch at Lumen Field promises to be a hard-hitting, high-stakes battle and we have the best bets you need to get paid in this NFC showdown!
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Game Bets: Finding Value in a Tight NFC Matchup!
The Pick: Los Angeles Rams Moneyline (+110)
The oddsmakers have installed the Seahawks as slight home favorites, but the Rams offer fantastic value at plus money. This is essentially a coin-flip game between two teams ranked 1st and 2nd in Total DVOA, making the underdog price highly attractive.
Analytical Breakdown
The Rams offense is an absolute juggernaut, averaging 30.0 points per game (Rank 2). While the Seahawks defense is statistically superior overall (Rank 1 DVOA), the Rams' offensive efficiency is unmatched.
Elite Offense: The Rams lead the league in Offensive DVOA (31.2%) and Passing Touchdowns (37 total, 2.64 per game). Their ability to score quickly and efficiently keeps them in every contest.
Historical Edge: Rams coach Sean McVay has a history of success against the Seahawks, covering the spread by over 4.5 points per game since 2019. This coaching advantage in divisional matchups often translates to wins.
Defensive Strength: The Rams defense is no slouch, ranking 4th in points allowed per game (18.64) and 3rd in Defensive DVOA. They are particularly stout against the run, ranking 1st in rushing touchdowns allowed (5 total).
Given the near-identical overall efficiency metrics (SEA Total DVOA 43.4%, LAR Total DVOA 43.3%), taking the Rams at +110 is a strong play.
Bet the Rams Moneyline at DraftKings
Our Top NFL Player Prop Recommendations:
1. Matthew Stafford Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns ( -128 )
Analysis & Rationale
Stafford has been operating the league's most explosive passing attack, and the trends overwhelmingly support him hitting the Over here.
Elite Consistency: Stafford has hit the Over on 1.5 passing touchdowns in 100% of his last five games and 90% of his last ten games. His season average sits at a robust 2.64 passing touchdowns per game, well above the line.
Red Zone Dominance: The Rams offense is built to score through the air, especially near the goal line. Stafford ranks 1st among quarterbacks in completions inside the 5-yard line and inside the 10-yard line.
Matchup Context: While the Seahawks defense is generally strong (ranking 8th best against QBs for this prop), Stafford has already proven he can overcome this unit, hitting the over in their previous matchup this season with 2.0 passing touchdowns. The Rams' offensive efficiency (Rank 1 Offensive DVOA) is simply too high to expect them to be shut down.
Bet the Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns at Pinnacle
2. Kyren Williams Over 0.5 Touchdowns (Anytime TD -122)
Analysis & Rationale
Kyren Williams is the engine of the Rams' ground game and their primary red zone finisher. When the Rams get close, the ball goes to Williams.
High Hit Rate: Williams has scored at least one touchdown in 80% of his last five games and holds a 71.43% hit rate for the season, averaging 0.93 touchdowns per game.
Red Zone Workhorse: Williams ranks 2nd among running backs in rushing touchdowns inside the 5-yard line and 1st in rushing touchdowns inside the 10-yard line. His usage near the goal line is elite.
Historical Success: He found the end zone in the previous matchup against the Seahawks this season, averaging 1.0 touchdown in that contest. While Seattle's run defense is tough (ranking 2nd best against RBs for this prop), Williams' volume and role as the designated scorer make this a high-confidence play.
Bet the Over 0.5 Touchdowns at Kalshi
3. Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 6.5 Receptions ( -110 )
Analysis & Rationale
This is a fantastic spot for Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who has emerged as the Seahawks' top receiving option. The matchup against the Rams' secondary is highly favorable for him to rack up catches.
Volume and Consistency: JSN is averaging 6.86 receptions per game this season. He has hit the Over on 6.5 receptions in 80% of his last five gamesand 80% of his last ten games
Massive Target Share: He commands a league-leading 35% target share among wide receivers, demonstrating his importance to the Seahawks passing game.
Favorable Matchup: The Rams defense ranks 29th worst against wide receivers for receptions, indicating a significant weakness that JSN is perfectly positioned to exploit. In their previous meeting this season, JSN hauled in 9 receptions, crushing this line.
Bet the Over 6.5 Receptions at BetMGM
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