MMA is an unpredictable sport. It is one of the few sports where anything can change at any second. We have seen fighters dominate 4 rounds in a row and then get finished in the final seconds of the fight. During the epic showdown between “Kamaru Usman” and current Welterweight champion “Leon Edwards” Usman had the victory in the bag until Leon hit the head kick that shocked the world and changed his life forever. Living true to his nickname “Rocky” he finished the fight by knocking Usman out cold in the 5th round with a spectacular combo starting with some boxing and ending with a duck under left kick off of a roll. Unlike a basketball game where a lopsided score at the end of the game is certain death for the team on the losing end all it takes is 1 second to win a fight.
However, When looking at the statistics there is one glaring trend in MMA that has been ignored for too long, The womans over 2.5 which has proven historically to be a strong parlay piece even on the top level. Here in this article we will observe several factors as to why this statistical trend exists. (Note we will be looking at statistics related to the UFC as finishes happen more often on the lower levels due to larger skill gaps and limited matchmaking opportunities in other organizations, UFC Featherweight will not be included as this division no longer exists)
The Numbers Don't Lie in MMA
Historically throughout UFC history Women's fights go to decision 63.4% of the time. This leaves a lot to be desired as far as this being a safe bet but when we analyze the numbers closer we can see some important details as to why this number may not tell the full story.
Statistics for the entire UFC show that there were more fights that went to decisions in 2023 than any other year in UFC history. This can be attributed to a larger talent pool, the lack of specialists who have weaknesses in areas outside of their specialties (more well rounded training regimens all around) and the higher barrier of entry to get into the UFC due to it becoming a global phenomenon in the last 5-10 years.
Womens finish rates in 2023 is trending in the low 30% rate and most of these finishes come from debuting fighters getting outclassed by veterans, these are easy to avoid with a little research. When betting on experienced fighters going against each other decisions are a far more likely outcome with a few notable exceptions (IE, Amanda Nunes, Valentina Shevchenko, J’essica Andrade, Ronda Rousey, Tatiana Suarez ECT)
UFC 1st round finishes in (W) straw-weight and (W) flyweight trend at 12%.
Wrestling heavy fighters (Classified by a collegiate wrestling background) tend to go to decision more often than their striking heavy counterparts.
The KO rate in womans fights is only 17% and the number of submissions is dropping yearly over the last ten years despite the number of total fights trending upwards.
Other contributing factors
Women's Weight classes only go up to 135, Lower weight classes across all genders result in a higher rate of decisions.
Due to natural Physiology/Biology women have less punching power and brute force than their male counterparts. They also tend to have less squeeze strength and due to this the submissions need to be far more technical and well set up.
The talent pool for women’s MMA has grown exponentially since the rise of stars such as Amanda Nunes, Valentina Shevchenko, Rhonda Rousey, and other household names. Due to this growth we have better matchmaking and more even matches.
Women's MMA tends to be more grappling heavy as that presents more opportunities for finishes, This tends to result in less damage than a proper brawl on the feet.
The main takeaway here is not that you should take the women over 2.5 indiscriminately, but with a little bit of research with the right fight this bet can make an extremely valuable parlay piece. Paired with a slight favorite you can get great upside and plus money on your favorite fighters/picks. Women’s over 2.5 tend to trend around the -300 mark which when paired with a -200 can result in an even money payout.
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