Today's Best NFL Touchdown Props: Predictions, Odds & Top Picks 10/19/25
- Lee Shipley
- 5 days ago
- 5 min read
The Anytime Touchdown Scorer market is one of the most exciting in the NFL, and Week 7 offers some fantastic opportunities backed by elite usage and favorable matchups. We teamed up with JaXon by Pine Sports AI and analyzed the data, focusing on red zone volume, recent performance trends, and critical injury news to deliver five comprehensive picks for today's slate, complete with the 5-star confidence rating to give you a understanding of our top picks in this article today!
💰 Top Anytime Touchdown Scorer Recommendations
1. Jonathan Taylor (Indianapolis Colts) -178 ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️
Recommendation & Rationale:
Jonathan Taylor is having an absolutely massive season, and this matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers is a prime spot for him to continue his league-leading touchdown pace. The Chargers' defense has been highly susceptible to opposing running backs, making Taylor a near must-play in this market.
Recent Performance & Season Trends:
Taylor has been a touchdown machine, hitting the over on this line in 80% of his last five games, averaging a staggering 1.6 touchdowns per contest during that span. Over the full season, he is averaging 1.33 touchdowns per game, hitting the over in 66.67% of his games. Taylor leads the entire NFL in rushing touchdowns, red zone carries, and carries inside the 5-yard line. His usage near the goal line is unparalleled, guaranteeing him multiple high-leverage scoring opportunities every week.
Matchup Analysis & News Integration:
The Los Angeles Chargers defense ranks 23rd against the running back position for this prop, indicating a soft matchup. News reports confirm this weakness, noting that the Chargers have allowed two or more touchdowns to the opposing team's lead running back in back-to-back games. With the Colts offense heavily leaning on Taylor's elite volume, especially in scoring territory, he is positioned for a huge day.
2. George Pickens (Dallas Cowboys) +165 ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️🔥
Recommendation & Rationale:
George Pickens offers incredible value at +165 odds, especially considering his recent dominance and the favorable matchup against the Washington Commanders. This game has the highest projected total of the week, suggesting a potential shootout where scoring will be plentiful.
Recent Performance & Season Trends:
Pickens has been on fire, hitting the over on this prop in 100% of his last five games, averaging 1.2 touchdowns. For the season, he is averaging 1.0 touchdown per game, hitting the over in 83.33% of his contests. Pickens leads all wide receivers in touchdowns this season and is a primary target for Dak Prescott in the red zone. His 13 end zone targets this season are among the league leaders, demonstrating his high-value role in the offense.
Matchup Analysis & News Integration:
The Commanders defense ranks 23rd against the wide receiver position for this prop, providing a clear advantage for Pickens. Furthermore, the Commanders have the second-worst scoring defense in the NFL, allowing 30.7 points per game. With CeeDee Lamb returning to the lineup, the attention he draws should only open up more opportunities for Pickens, who has been playing at an elite level regardless. The news suggests his odds should be closer to +115, making +165 a steal.
3. Jalen Hurts (Philadelphia Eagles) +105 ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️
Recommendation & Rationale:
Getting Jalen Hurts at plus money to score a touchdown is always a strong proposition. Hurts remains the most reliable goal-line threat in the Eagles' offense, thanks to his elite rushing volume and the unstoppable "Brotherly Shove" play.
Recent Performance & Season Trends:
Hurts has scored in 60% of his last five games and is averaging 0.83 touchdowns per game this season. His usage near the goal line is unmatched among quarterbacks. Hurts has more carries from inside the 1-yard line than any other player in the league since the start of last season. When the Eagles get close, they rely on his legs, whether it's a designed run or the "tush push.
Matchup Analysis & News Integration:
The Minnesota Vikings defense ranks 13th against the quarterback position for this prop, but the news suggests the Vikings have been "lowkey getting gashed by running backs." Given the Eagles recent offensive struggles in the passing game, expect them to lean heavily on the ground game, increasing Hurts chances of finding the end zone, especially in goal-to-go situations.
4. De'Von Achane (Miami Dolphins) +130 ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️
Recommendation & Rationale:
De'Von Achane is stepping into an even larger role for the Dolphins, and the expected weather conditions in Cleveland strongly favor his chances of scoring. The plus money odds make this an excellent value play despite the Browns' generally strong defense.
Recent Performance & Season Trends:
Achane has been highly consistent, hitting the over on this prop in 80% of his last five games and 83.33% of his games this season (5 of 6). He is averaging 1.0 touchdown per game this season, split evenly between rushing and receiving scores. Achane's dual-threat ability makes him dangerous from anywhere on the field. He is coming off a two-touchdown performance last week.
Matchup Analysis & News Integration:
While the Browns defense ranks 3rd against the running back position for this prop, the news narrative is overwhelmingly positive for Achane. Tyreek Hill is out for the season, making Achane even more critical to the offense. Crucially, heavy winds (up to 50-60 mph) are expected, which will force Miami to rely on the ground game and short passes—Achane's specialties. Furthermore, Cleveland has allowed the opposing team's RB1 to score in three consecutive games. The combination of increased volume, favorable weather, and a recent defensive trend makes Achane a high-upside pick.
5. Bijan Robinson (Atlanta Falcons) -160 ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️
Recommendation & Rationale:
Bijan Robinson is a dynamic playmaker facing a San Francisco 49ers defense that is significantly depleted by injuries, particularly at the linebacker and defensive line positions. Robinson's high volume and ability to score as both a runner and receiver make him a strong candidate for Sunday Night Football.
Recent Performance & Season Trends:
Robinson has hit the over on this prop in 60% of his last five games, averaging 0.6 touchdowns per game this season. He is a focal point of the Falcons offense, averaging 96.8 rushing yards and 67.6 receiving yards per game. Robinson is coming off a game where he found the end zone and put up huge yardage, demonstrating his ability to capitalize on opportunities.
Matchup Analysis & News Integration:
The 49ers defense ranks 22nd against the running back position for this prop, indicating a favorable matchup. The news confirms that the 49ers are dealing with major defensive losses, including star edge rusher Nick Bosa and top linebacker Fred Warner, who are both out. This severely weakens the 49ers ability to contain a versatile back like Robinson, who can exploit the middle of the field and the edges. With the 49ers offense struggling with Mac Jones at quarterback, the Falcons should remain competitive, ensuring Robinson maintains high usage throughout the game.
GET TODAYS NFL MAX BET FOR FREE WITH A 7-DAY FREE PREMIUM TRIAL!!
Comments