AFC East Showdown: Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills
- Lee Shipley
- Sep 18
- 3 min read
Updated: Sep 26
Get ready, football fans! The AFC East is about to get a whole lot spicier. The Miami Dolphins are heading north to take on the Buffalo Bills in what's shaping up to be a can't-miss showdown. With both teams fighting for position in the division and the wider playoff picture, this isn't just another game—it's a high-stakes clash with major implications for the rest of the season.
📰 Injury Report
Injuries could play a crucial role in this matchup:
Buffalo Bills: The Bills are dealing with some significant defensive absences. Key players Ed Oliver and Matt Milano are both out. Additionally, Taron Johnson, Shaq Thompson, and Cam Lewis are listed as questionable. These defensive injuries could open up opportunities for the Dolphins' potent offense.
Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins will be without Darren Waller, and star wide receiver Jaylen Waddle is questionable. This could impact their aerial attack. Liam Eichenberg and Cam Smith are also out. If Waddle is limited or unable to play, it would place more pressure on Tyreek Hill and the running game.
Today’s Top TNF Props!
James Cook - Over 84.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
- Line: Over 84.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-114)
- Book Link: Fanduel
Analysis: James Cook is poised for a big game against a Dolphins defense that ranks 31st in the league against running backs for combined rushing and receiving yards. This is an incredibly favorable matchup. Cook has been on fire this season, hitting the over on this line in 100% of his two games, averaging a massive 118.5 combined yards per game. He's also cleared this line in 60% of his last five and ten games, demonstrating consistent production. His aggregate stats show 176 rushing yards (88.0/game) and 61 receiving yards (30.5/game) this season, highlighting his dual-threat ability.
Dalton Kincaid - Over 2.5 Receptions
- Line: Over 2.5 Receptions (-167)
- Book Link: BetRivers
Analysis: Dalton Kincaid has been a reliable target for Josh Allen. He faces a Miami Dolphins defense that ranks 20th against tight ends in receptions, indicating a slightly below-average performance against the position. Kincaid has hit the over on 2.5 receptions in 100% of his games this season, averaging 4.0 receptions per game. His recent form is strong, with an 80% hit rate over his last five and ten games. Furthermore, in his two matchups against the Dolphins in 2024, he hit the over 100% of the time, averaging 4.0 receptions. This consistent performance, coupled with a favorable defensive ranking, makes the over an attractive play.
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Tua Tagovailoa - Over 0.5 Interceptions
- Line: Over 0.5 Interceptions (-155)
- Book Link: BetRivers
Analysis: Tua Tagovailoa faces a formidable Buffalo Bills defense known for creating turnovers. This season, Tua has thrown an interception in 100% of his games (one game with 2 interceptions), averaging 2.0 interceptions per game. While his hit rate over the last five and ten games is lower (40% and 30% respectively), the Bills' defense is a top unit. They will be looking to capitalize on any mistakes. The Bills' strong pass rush and coverage could force Tua into difficult throws, increasing the likelihood of an interception.
Jaylen Waddle - Under 4.5 Receptions
- Line: Under 4.5 Receptions (-120)
- Book Link: DraftKings
Analysis: Jaylen Waddle is listed as questionable, which could impact his workload. Even if he plays, he faces a challenging matchup. The Buffalo Bills defense ranks 3rd against wide receivers in receptions, making them one of the toughest units in the league to catch passes against. Waddle has consistently gone under this line, hitting the under in 80% of his last 15 games. Furthermore, in his two matchups against the Bills in 2024, he hit the under 100% of the time, averaging just 3.0 receptions. His season average is 4.5 receptions, right on the line. However, the elite Bills secondary and his historical performance against them strongly favor the under.
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