Today’s College Football Week 6 Best Bets for Saturday 10/4/25

Week 6 of college football is set to deliver some fantastic matchups, and I've crunched the numbers to find the top five betting opportunities across the slate. We're focusing on spots where the situational trends, historical data, and statistical mismatches align perfectly.

Here are my best bets for Saturday's action:

1. Air Force Falcons @ Navy Midshipmen

• The Pick: Under 52.0

• Best Odds: -114 on BetRivers

Analysis: This is the classic Service Academy game, and you simply cannot overthink the historical trends here. Since 2005, the Under in games between Service Academies is an astonishing 46-12-1 (79.6%). The reason is simple: both teams run the triple-option offense, which chews up the clock and limits the total number of possessions. Navy averages 54.5 rushing attempts per game, and Air Force averages 50.3. While both teams have high offensive success rates against non-academy opponents, their defenses are specifically designed to stop the triple-option, leading to long, grinding drives and low scores. Trust the trend and the clock management inherent in this rivalry.

2. Illinois Fighting Illini @ Purdue Boilermakers

• The Pick: Purdue +9.5

• Best Odds: -115 on BetMGM

Analysis: This pick is all about the situational spot. Illinois is coming off two extremely emotional games (Indiana and USC) and has a massive game against Ohio State next week. This is a classic "flat spot" for the Illini, who have also played six straight games without a break. Meanwhile, Purdue is coming off a bye week, giving their new roster and coaching staff, led by quarterback Ryan Browne, two full weeks to prepare. Historically, the underdog in the "Battle for the Cannon" has gone 12-6 ATS since 2005. The teams are statistically very close, separated by only 0.1 net yards per play, but the massive scheduling advantage and historical trend favor the fresher Boilermakers to keep this game competitive.

3. James Madison Dukes @ Georgia State Panthers

• The Pick: James Madison -19.5

• Best Odds: -110 on ESPN BET

• Analysis: This is a pure statistical mismatch. James Madison is a perfect 4-0 against the spread (ATS) this season, while Georgia State is 0-4 ATS. The Dukes boast an elite defense, ranking 2nd nationally in success rate (28.6%) and 6th in EPA per play allowed (-0.26). This defense is poised to stifle a Georgia State offense that ranks 101st in success rate (39.8%). JMU already started their conference schedule with a dominant 35-10 victory over Georgia Southern, and they have a massive advantage on both sides of the ball here. Expect the Dukes to roll and cover the large spread.

4. San Diego State Aztecs Team Total Points

• The Pick: San Diego State Over 23.5 Points

• Best Odds: -110 on DraftKings

Analysis: In their late-night matchup against the Colorado State Rams, the Aztecs are favored by 4.5 to 5.5 points. The line for San Diego State to score 24 points or more is very manageable. The Aztecs are projected to score 23.5 points, and the odds are favorable for them to hit the over. Given the game total is set low (around 40.5-41.5), if San Diego State is going to cover the spread, they will likely need to hit this team total. The corresponding team prop for touchdowns is Over 2.5 at -120, which also suggests they are expected to score at least three touchdowns, making the 23.5 point total very achievable.

5. Duke Blue Devils Team Total Points

• The Pick: Duke Under 28.5 Points

• Best Odds: -112 on BetRivers

Analysis: Duke is favored by 2.5 to 3.0 points against California, suggesting a tight, lower-scoring affair. The total for the game is set between 53.5 and 55.5. For Duke to hit the Under 28.5, they need to score 28 points or less. The corresponding touchdown prop for Duke is Under 3.5 touchdowns at -105, indicating the market expects them to score three or fewer touchdowns. In a close game where the total is moderate, taking the Under on the favorite's team total offers good value, especially when the line is set just below four touchdowns.