Today’s NFL Best Bets & Props Week 17 12/27/25
- Lee Shipley
- Dec 27, 2025
- 4 min read
Week 17 Saturday football is here, and with playoff spots on the line, this double-header is a bettor's dream. Between the Texans-Chargers AFC showdown and a snowy battle at Lambeau, the board is wide open—especially with major injuries sending these lines into a frenzy. Whether you're hunting for spread value or soft player props, we’ve got the edges you need.
Make TheOutletSV.com your first stop for today’s best free picks!
The Houston Texans at
Los Angeles Chargers
1. Game Recommendation: Los Angeles Chargers -1.5 (-111)
Game Info: 4:30 PM ET | SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
Confidence Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Chargers are currently sitting as slim home favorites, and the statistical profile suggests they should be able to cover this short number. The Texans are dealing with a significant cluster of injuries to their offensive line and backfield, with Joe Mixon and Tank Dell both ruled out. This puts an immense burden on C.J. Stroud against a Chargers defense that ranks 9th in DVOA and 4th in passing yards allowed (211.2 per game).
Los Angeles has been elite at limiting big plays, ranking 3rd in the league in interception rate (3.3%) and 3rd in passing touchdowns allowed (only 14 all season). While the Texans' defense is formidable (2nd in DVOA), their offense has struggled with consistency on the road, averaging only 23.07 points per game. The Chargers' ability to pressure the quarterback (7th in sacks with 40) against a depleted Texans line should be the deciding factor.
My Pick: Los Angeles Chargers -1.5
2. Player Prop: C.J. Stroud Over 20.5 Completions (-114)
Confidence Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Despite the tough matchup, the game script heavily favors Stroud having to air it out. With Joe Mixon out, the Texans' rushing attack (ranked 23rd in yards) will likely be non-existent against a Chargers front that is top-10 in rushing yards allowed. Stroud has been a volume monster when the run game fails, averaging 31.0 pass attempts per game this season.
Over his last 10 games, Stroud has cleared this 20.5 completion line in 80% of his contests. Even more telling is his performance on the road, where he has hit the over in 66.67% of games this season with a mean of 21.17 completions. The Chargers' defense is excellent, but they often employ a "bend but don't break" shell that allows for high-volume, short-area completions, which fits Stroud's surgical style perfectly.
My Pick: C.J. Stroud Over 20.5 Completions
Get a Free Week of VIP Picks!
Start Winning Today! Sign Up for our FREE TRIAL! Get 7 Days Full Access into Our Premium Pick Group!
The Baltimore Ravens at Green Bay Packers
Game Recommendation: Green Bay Packers Moneyline (-174)
Game Info: 8:00 PM ET | Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
Confidence Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
This game has been fundamentally altered by the injury report. Ravens superstar QB Lamar Jackson is listed as Doubtful, and the Packers have officially ruled out Jordan Love, meaning we are likely looking at a Malik Willis vs. Tyler Huntley showdown in the cold. In a battle of backup quarterbacks, I trust the Packers' infrastructure and home-field advantage at Lambeau.
Green Bay ranks 7th in total DVOA and has a top-5 offensive DVOA (14.8%). Their defense has been opportunistic, ranking 11th in yards per reception allowed and 5th in yards per carry allowed (3.97). The Ravens' defense is 25th in passing yards allowed, which should give Malik Willis enough room to operate. Baltimore's offense without Lamar Jackson loses its identity, especially against a Packers unit that is elite at stopping the run (ranked 4th in rushing TDs allowed).
My Pick: Green Bay Packers Moneyline
Player Prop: Jayden Reed Over 25.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Confidence Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Regardless of who is under center for Green Bay, Jayden Reed is the focal point of this passing attack. The Ravens' secondary has been their Achilles' heel all season, ranking 25th in passing yards allowed (265.73 per game) and 28th in receptions allowed. Reed is a master of the manufactured touch, and the Packers will likely use him in the screen game and on jet sweeps to help their backup quarterback.
Reed has been highly efficient, and this line of 25.5 is significantly lower than his season average. The Ravens' defense allows 7.21 yards per pass attempt (10th), but they struggle with yards after catch, where Reed excels. Given the Ravens' defensive struggles against versatile slot threats, Reed should be able to clear this number on just two or three touches.
My Pick: Jayden Reed Over 25.5 Receiving Yards
Saturday NFL Double-Header 4 Leg Parlay Opportunity!
If you're looking to string these together for a bigger payout, I recommend focusing on the home favorites and high-volume receivers:
Leg 1: Chargers Moneyline
Leg 2: Packers Moneyline
Leg 3: Dalton Schultz Over 4.5 Receptions
Leg 4: C.J. Stroud Over 20.5 Completions
This parlay correlates the expected game scripts where both home teams control the tempo and the Texans are forced into a high-volume passing attack due to their backfield injuries.
Comments