Today’s TNF Best Bets: NFL Washington Commanders Vs. Green Bay Packers 9/11/25
- Lee Shipley
- Sep 10
- 3 min read
Get ready for a great matchup on Thursday night as the Washington Commanders head to Green Bay to take on the Packers for Week 2 of the NFL season. Both teams are coming in hot after winning their first games of the year. The Packers offense looked strong in their 27-13 win over the Lions, while the Commanders defense shut down the Giants in a 21-6 victory.
Plus, there's a special halftime show to look forward to as the Packers honor Hall of Fame wide receiver Sterling Sharpe.
So let’s get into this article and find the best bets for this Thursday night football game! Remember here at The Outlet Sports Ventures, we are a team up with Pine Sports AI, JaXon when we can to bring you the collaboration of human intuition and artificial intelligence to find you the best Bets to make you the most money! We’re not simply betting we’re betting on unfair!
📰 The TNF Injury Report:
Here's a look at the key injury updates for both teams heading into tomorrow's game:
Washington Commanders:
Out: Offensive lineman Sam Cosmi, Lucas Niang (Injured Reserve), Tyree Jackson (Injured Reserve).
Questionable: Punter Tress Way, Defensive end Deatrich Wise Jr.
The absence of Sam Cosmi on the offensive line could impact the Commanders ability to protect Jayden Daniels and establish the run.
Green Bay Packers:
Out: Wide receiver Christian Watson, John Williams, Jacob Monk (Injured Reserve), Collin Oliver, MarShawn Lloyd (Injured Reserve), Travis Glover, Brenton Cox Jr., Bo Melton.
Questionable: Linebacker Micah Parsons, Offensive lineman Zach Tom, Zayne Anderson, Nate Hobbs, Aaron Banks.
Christian Watson's absence is a significant blow to the Packers' receiving corps, potentially shifting targets to other players like Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed.
The questionable status of Micah Parsons is also a major concern for their defense.
Today’s Best Bets for TNF!
Here are our top picks for tomorrow's game, backed by detailed analysis and recent performance trends:
1 . Jacory Croskey-Merritt (WAS) - Rushing Yards Over 37.5
Line: 37.5 Rushing Yards
Odds: -113 DraftKings
Jacory Croskey-Merritt burst onto the scene in Week 1, leading the Commanders' ground game with an impressive 82 rushing yards on 10 carries, including a touchdown. This performance is significantly higher than the 37.5-yard line, and he hit the over in 100% of his games this season. With the Commanders' offensive line showing continuity from last season, Croskey-Merritt is expected to see an increased workload and continue his strong production. His efficiency metrics from Week 1, including an 8.2 yards per carry average, further support this pick.
2 . Deebo Samuel Sr. (WAS) - Rushing Yards Over 6.5
Line: 6.5 Rushing Yards
Odds: -120 ESPN BET
Deebo Samuel Sr. proved he's still a dynamic playmaker in Week 1, not only excelling in the passing game but also contributing a 19-yard rushing touchdown. He hit the over on this line in 80% of his last five games and 100% of his games this season. The Commanders are looking to get Samuel involved in various ways, and his ability to break off big plays on the ground makes this over a strong play. His Week 1 rushing performance alone exceeded this line by a significant margin.
3 . Josh Jacobs (GB) - Rushing Yards Under 77.5
Line: 77.5 Rushing Yards
Odds: -110 DraftKings
Josh Jacobs had a challenging Week 1, averaging just 3.5 yards per carry and finishing with 66 rushing yards, well under this line. He has hit the under on this line in 80% of his last five games and 100% of his games this season, including his home game. The Commanders' defense, despite some past struggles against the run, showed improvement in Week 1 by limiting the Giants' ground game. With Washington adding pieces to bolster their run defense, Jacobs could face another tough outing, making the under an appealing pick.
4 . Jordan Love (GB) - Passing Attempts Under 29.5
Line: 29.5 Passing Attempts
Odds: +107 Pinnacle
Jordan Love was efficient in Week 1, completing 16 of 22 passes for 188 yards. He finished with only 22 passing attempts, significantly below the 29.5 line. He has hit the under on this line in 80% of his last five games and 100% of his games this season, including his home game. The Packers got off to a hot start in Week 1, which led to a more run-heavy approach. If the Commanders succeed in stopping Josh Jacobs and forcing Love to pass more, this could change, but given the Packers Week 1 strategy and the Commanders' defensive improvements, the under on passing attempts looks like a solid underdog play.
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