Today’s Top Homerun Props & Best Bets for 8/10/25
- Lee Shipley
- Aug 10
- 4 min read
Today we're taking a look at the MLB slate and picking out the hitters most likely to launch a home run! I've dug into all the key stats—from how guys have been swinging the bat lately to their head-to-head matchups with today's pitchers and the ballparks they're playing in. All this research is powered by Pine Sports AI, JaXon, to give you the best home run prop bets for today’s games!
Today’s Top Homerun Hitters!
The Kyle Schwarber Bomb (Philadelphia Phillies)
Line & Odds: Over 0.5 Home Runs (+254)
Book Link: Pinnacle
Analysis: Kyle Schwarber is an absolute slugger, and all signs point to him continuing his power surge today. He's already blasted 38 home runs this season, with an impressive 32.76% season-long hit rate for this prop. More recently, he's hit the over in 40% of his last five and last ten games, and 45% over his last 20. What makes this matchup particularly juicy is his history against the Texas Rangers, hitting the over in 50% of his 2025 matchups against them. He's facing Patrick Corbin, a left-handed pitcher who has historically struggled against power hitters, surrendering 1.1 HR/9 this season. Schwarber's .541 slugging percentage against left-handed pitching this season further highlights this favorable matchup. Adding to the appeal, Globe Life Field, where the game is being played, is very hitter-friendly for home runs, boasting a 121 HR factor. This combination of a hot hitter, a vulnerable pitcher, and a homer-friendly park makes Schwarber a prime candidate to go yard.
The Shea Langeliers Bomb (Oakland Athletics)
Line & Odds: Over 0.5 Home Runs (+389)
Book Link: Pinnacle
Analysis: Shea Langeliers has been showing consistent power recently, hitting the over in 40% of his last five and last ten games. His historical performance against the Baltimore Orioles is also noteworthy, with a 50% hit rate in 2025 matchups and an even more impressive 60% in 2024. He's facing Cade Povich, a left-handed pitcher who has struggled at home with a 6.81 ERA and has allowed 2 home runs in just 3 plate appearances to the Athletics roster. Oriole Park at Camden Yards is also a very hitter-friendly park for home runs, with a 108 HR factor. This combination of Langeliers' recent form, his success against the Orioles, and Povich's home struggles in a favorable park makes him a strong home run candidate.
The Junior Caminero Bomb (Tampa Bay Rays)
Line & Odds: Over 0.5 Home Runs (+429)
Book Link: Pinnacle
Analysis: Junior Caminero is currently on a hot streak, hitting the over in an impressive 60% of his last five games. What truly stands out is his perfect 100% hit rate against the Seattle Mariners in 2025, having hit 2 home runs in just 2 plate appearances against them. While T-Mobile Park is generally considered pitcher-friendly for home runs (92 HR factor), Caminero's recent power surge and his proven ability to hit against this specific opponent make him a compelling pick despite the park factors. His current form suggests he can overcome the park's tendencies.
Today’s Long Shot Homerun Hitters!
The J.P. Crawford Bomb (Seattle Mariners)
Matchup: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners
Prop: Player Prop Total Home Runs (Over 0.5)
Odds: +1060 Fanduel
Analysis:J.P. Crawford's home run numbers are not encouraging for an over bet. He has not hit a home run in his last 5 games, and his hit rate for going over 0.5 home runs is only 20% in his last 10 games and 10% in his last 20 games. For the entire season, he has hit the over in just 7.89% of his games, averaging 0.08 home runs per game.
Historically, against the Tampa Bay Rays, Crawford has not hit a home run in 2 games this season or 4 games last season. The game is being played at T-Mobile Park, which has a home run park factor of 92, indicating it's a pitcher-friendly park for home runs. While he has faced Adrian Houser (RHP) before and performed well in terms of hits (3-for-4 with a double and a triple in 5 plate appearances), none of those hits were home runs.
The Brent Rooker Bomb (Oakland Athletics)
Matchup: Athletics @ Baltimore Orioles
Prop: Player Prop Total Home Runs (Over 0.5)
Odds: +360 BetMGM
Analysis:Brent Rooker presents a more intriguing, albeit still an underdog, home run opportunity. He has hit the over on 0.5 home runs in 20% of his last 5 games and 30% of his last 10 games. His season average is 0.2 home runs per game, with 23 home runs in 119 games played.
Rooker has a history of hitting home runs against the Baltimore Orioles, with one home run in five games this season and one in six games last season against them. Today, he faces Cade Povich (LHP). In their single career matchup, Rooker hit a home run off Povich, demonstrating his power against this specific pitcher. The ball had a launch angle of 28.0 degrees and an exit velocity of 102.6 mph, indicating a well-struck ball.
The game is at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, which has a home run park factor of 108, suggesting it's slightly hitter-friendly for home runs. While Rooker's overall home run rate is not exceptionally high, the favorable matchup against Povich and the slightly hitter-friendly park conditions make this an interesting speculative play at +360 odds. This is an underdog pick, but the specific pitcher matchup provides a compelling narrative.
Comments