Maximize Your Profits with Today's MLB Home Run Props!
- Lee Shipley
- Aug 14
- 5 min read
Updated: Aug 25
Time to get ready for today's MLB action! We're diving into the slate to find the best home run props. I've pinpointed some key hitters who are on a hot streak and have a history of doing damage against their matchups. My picks are based on the latest stats, pitcher-batter matchups, and important park factors, with all the data research powered by Pine Sports AI, Jaxon.
Today’s Top Home Run Hitters!
The Juan Soto Bomb
(New York Mets)
Juan Soto (New York Mets) - Over 0.5 Home Runs (+310) BetRivers
Soto has been on a power surge, launching four home runs in the past week. He has hit the over on his home run prop in 60% of his last five games and 40% over his last ten. Facing the Atlanta Braves in 2025, Soto boasts a 44.44% hit rate for home runs. Notably, he's 2-for-3 with a homer against Braves pitcher Bryce Elder, who has struggled with a 2.01 HR/9 and has surrendered 18 homers in his last four outings. With Elder's sinker getting "pummeled," Soto is in a prime position to add another long ball.
The Hunter Goodman Bomb (Colorado Rockies)
Hunter Goodman (Colorado Rockies) - Over 0.5 Home Runs (+285) FanDuel
Goodman is another hitter who benefits immensely from playing at Coors Field. He has shown recent power, hitting the over in 40% of his last five games and 50% over his last ten. While his 2025 numbers against the Diamondbacks are lower, he hit a home run in 40% of his matchups against them in 2024. Goodman is coming off a clutch pinch-hit homer, and the Rockies' offense typically sees a significant boost at home. With the combination of struggling pitchers and Coors Field's altitude, Goodman has a great chance to connect.
The Corbin Carroll Bomb (Arizona Diamondbacks)
Corbin Carroll (Arizona Diamondbacks) - Over 0.5 Home Runs (+210) FanDuel
Carroll is heading into Coors Field, which is baseball's most hitter-friendly park with a 1.317 park factor for runs. He has been showing recent power, hitting the over on his home run prop in 40% of his last five and ten games. Against the Colorado Rockies in 2025, he's already hit a home run in 33.33% of his matchups. The AI model projects an impressive 35% chance for Carroll to go yard tonight, and he's already taken Rockies pitcher Bradley Blalock deep once. This combination of a hitter-friendly environment, recent form, and a favorable matchup makes Carroll a strong play.
Today’s Long Shot Hitters!
The Blaze Alexander Bomb (Arizona Diamondbacks)
Blaze Alexander (Arizona Diamondbacks) - Over 0.5 Home Runs (+560) FanDuel
Alexander is another Diamondbacks hitter playing at Coors Field, and he's been incredibly hot at the plate. He has hit the over on his home run prop in 40% of his last five and ten games. News reports him as "scorching hot" with a .381/.409/.857 slash line this week, including three home runs and seven RBIs. He's also 1-for-1 lifetime against Rockies pitcher Bradley Blalock, who has been "torched" by right-handed hitters (.325 average) and owns a .387 opponent average at home over his last four starts. The high odds combined with his recent performance and the Coors Field factor make Alexander an intriguing long-shot play.
The Zach McKinstry Bomb (Detroit Tigers)
Zach McKinstry Over 0.5 Home Runs offers significant value.
Line: 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +600
Book: Fanduel
Zach McKinstry and the Detroit Tigers are set to face the Minnesota Twins tonight at Target Field. While McKinstry's overall home run numbers this season and recently have been low, there's an intriguing individual matchup that could spark some power.
📊 Statistical Breakdown:
Recent Performance: McKinstry has not hit a home run in his last 5 games. Over his last 10 games, he's hit the over on 0.5 home runs in just 10% of contests, with a mean of 0.1 home runs. His season average for home runs is 0.09.
Opponent Matchup: This is where it gets interesting. McKinstry has a strong historical performance against the Twins' starting pitcher, Bailey Ober. In 16 career plate appearances against Ober, McKinstry has hit 1 home run, boasting an impressive .438 batting average and an .813 slugging percentage. This suggests he sees the ball well off Ober.
Park Factors: Target Field, the venue for tonight's game, has a slightly hitter-friendly park factor for home runs, rated at 104 (where 100 is average).
💰 Recommendation:
Despite his overall low home run rate, the individual matchup against Bailey Ober is compelling. Given the high odds, taking a shot on him is worth considering!
The Bo Bichette Bomb (Toronto Blue Jays)
Line: 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +520
Book: Fanduel
Bo Bichette and the Toronto Blue Jays will host the Chicago Cubs today at Rogers Centre. Similar to McKinstry, Bichette's recent home run production has been modest, but his history against the opposing pitcher is a major factor.
📊 Statistical Breakdown:
Recent Performance: Bichette has not hit a home run in his last 5 games. Over his last 10 games, he's hit the over on 0.5 home runs in 20% of games, with a mean of 0.3 home runs. His season average for home runs is 0.14.
Opponent Matchup: Bichette has an exceptionally strong track record against Cubs' starting pitcher Matthew Boyd. In just 2 career plate appearances against Boyd, Bichette has hit 1 home run, with a perfect 1.000 batting average and an astounding 2.500 slugging percentage. This is a matchup he clearly thrives in.
Park Factors: Rogers Centre is a neutral to slightly hitter-friendly park for home runs, with a park factor of 102.
💰 Recommendation:
The historical dominance of Bo Bichette against Matthew Boyd makes the Over 0.5 Home Runs an attractive long-shot play.
The Josh Bell Bomb (Washington Nationals)
Line: 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +650
Book: BetMGM
Josh Bell and the Washington Nationals are playing at home against the Philadelphia Phillies tonight at Nationals Park. Bell's recent home run output has been inconsistent, but his past performance against the Phillies' starter provides a glimmer of hope.
📊 Statistical Breakdown:
Recent Performance: Bell has hit the over on 0.5 home runs in 40% of his last 5 games, with a mean of 0.4 home runs. However, his hit rate drops to 20% over his last 10 games. His season average for home runs is 0.15.
Opponent Matchup: Bell has faced Phillies' pitcher Jesús Luzardo 11 times in his career, hitting 1 home run. He holds a .333 batting average and a .889 slugging percentage against Luzardo, indicating a favorable individual matchup.
Park Factors: Nationals Park is slightly pitcher-friendly for home runs, with a park factor of 94. This is a slight headwind for home run potential.
💰 Recommendation:
Despite the slightly less favorable park factor, Josh Bell's strong historical numbers against Jesús Luzardo make the Over 0.5 Home Runs a worthwhile consideration at these odds.
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