Today’s Top Homerun Props - MLB Best Bets 6/21/25
- Lee Shipley
- Jun 21
- 2 min read
What a day for some long balls, folks! After yesterday's absolute homer explosion where we cashed in big, I'm feeling extra good about today. The weather is absolutely beautiful for hitting, which means more dingers are definitely on the menu. I've already put Pine Sports AI JaXon to work, analyzing all the batter vs. pitcher data and slugging percentages, and it's given us the top home run candidates. So, here are the hitters you'll want to keep an eye on, along with their stats and some sweet betting opportunities!
The Seiya Suzuki Bomb (Chicago Cubs)
Matchup: Seattle Mariners @ Chicago CubsGame Time: June 21, 2025, 6:20 PM ET
Odds:
Analysis:Suzuki has hit a home run in 20% of his last 5, 10, and 15 games, with a season average of 21.43%. However, he has not homered in his lone 2025 matchup against the Mariners. At home, his home run rate drops to 16.67%. While the +215 odds for the over are enticing, his recent trends and home performance suggest caution.
The Eugenio Suárez Bomb (Arizona Diamondbacks)
Matchup: Suárez faces Carson Palmquist, who has limited experience against the Diamondbacks' lineup. Suárez has a strong recent home run trend, hitting the over in 60% of his last 5 games and 50% of his last 10 games.
Season Stats: Suárez has a season mean of 0.32 home runs per game and has hit 19 home runs in 75 games.
Park Factor: Coors Field is the most hitter-friendly park in MLB, with a Park Factor of 112and a home run factor of 207.
Betting Opportunity: Over 0.5 home runs at +256 odds on Pinnacle.
The Mickey Moniak Bomb (Colorado Rockies)
Matchup: Moniak faces Merrill Kelly, who has struggled against left-handed hitters at Coors Field. Moniak has hit the over in 60% of his last 5 games.
Season Stats: Moniak has a season mean of 0.17 home runs per game but benefits from the favorable hitting conditions at Coors Field.
Park Factor: Coors Field’s high home run factor (207) significantly boosts Moniak’s chances.
Betting Opportunity: Over 0.5 home runs at +505 odds on Pinnacle.
Summary of Recommendations
(JaXon Summary)
Seiya Suzuki: Avoid the over at +215 due to low recent and home trends.
Nolan Arenado: The +607 odds for the over are tempting, but his lack of success against the Reds this season makes it a risky play.
Ryan Noda: No data available for analysis.
Randal Grichuk: Avoid the over at +330 due to poor recent and season-long performance.
Ian Happ: he has been an absolute fire!
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