Today’s Top Homerun Props: MLB Best Bets 7/5/25
- Lee Shipley
- Jul 5
- 4 min read
It is a beautiful day across the country for some baseball and I know that everyone is ready to see some dingers! We've got the scoop on today's top MLB players who are primed to launch some bombs. Our predictions are powered by the incredible Pine Sports AI, JaXon, which crunches all the recent performance, matchup advantages, and statistical trends to give you the best insights. We've even included a direct betting link for each recommendation, making it super easy to get in on the action.
The Seiya Suzuki Bomb (Chicago Cubs)
Matchup: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs
Recent Form: Suzuki has hit 6 home runs in his last 12 games, with an average exit velocity of 95.1 mph and a 60% hard-hit rate.
Pitcher Matchup: Faces lefty Matthew Liberatore, who has allowed 7 home runs to right-handed hitters this season.
Odds: +232
Bet Here: Pinnacle
Why Bet: Suzuki’s power against left-handed pitching and the homer-friendly conditions at Wrigley Field make him a strong candidate to go deep.
The Jazz Chisholm Jr. Bomb (New York Yankees)
Matchup: New York Yankees @ New York Mets
Recent Form: Chisholm has hit 13 home runs this season and has a favorable matchup against a Mets pitching staff that has struggled with left-handed hitters.
Odds: +425
Bet Here: BetMGM
Why Bet: Chisholm’s power and the Mets’ pitching vulnerabilities make this a strong value play.
The Francisco Lindor Bomb (New York Mets)
Matchup: New York Yankees @ New York Mets
Odds: Over 0.5 Home Runs at +400(BetMGM
Analysis:
Lindor has hit a home run in 20% of his last 5 games and 15% of his last 20 games
At home, his home run rate is 22.22%, which is slightly higher than his overall season average.
The Yankees' pitching staff has been inconsistent, and Lindor’s ability to hit for power makes him a solid candidate to go yard.
The Matt Wallner Bomb (Minnesota Twins)
Matchup: Tampa Bay Rays @ Minnesota Twins
Odds: Over 0.5 Home Runs at +380(BetRivers
Analysis:
Wallner has hit a home run in 20% of his last 5 games and 15% of his last 20 games
At home, his home run rate is 18.18%, which aligns with his overall season performance.
The Rays' pitching staff has been vulnerable to left-handed hitters, giving Wallner a favorable matchup.
The Long Shots of the Day!
Pete Crow-Armstrong: Over 0.5 Home Runs at +550 (BetMGM
Christian Walker (Houston Astros)
Odds: +525
Bet Here: BetMGM
Mickey Moniak (Colorado Rockies)
Odds: +470
Bet Here: FanDuel
Dansby Swanson (Chicago Cubs)
Odds: +285
Bet Here: DraftKings
Top Ball Parks for Homeruns Today!
Ever wonder where the ball flies farthest? I dove deep into all the nitty-gritty – park factors, historical trends, and even today's conditions – to find the absolute best ballparks for dingers. So, get ready, because here are the top three stadiums where we're most likely to see some rockets leave the yard today!
Wrigley Field (St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs)
Park Factor: Wrigley Field ranks #25 overall in park factors for home runs (95), but it’s included due to its unique weather-dependent dynamics.
Key Metrics:
Overall Park Factor: 97 (slightly pitcher-friendly overall).
Home Run Factor: 95 (5% less home run-friendly than average).
Wind Impact: Wrigley’s home run potential is heavily influenced by wind direction. If the wind is blowing out, it can transform the park into a home run haven.
Why It’s a Top Pick:
Historical trends show that Wrigley Field can produce a high number of home runs when weather conditions are favorable.
Key hitters like Ian Happ and Dansby Swanson for the Cubs, and Nolan Arenado for the Cardinals, could take advantage if the wind is blowing out.
Game Time: 2:20 PM ET.
Coors Field (Chicago White Sox @ Colorado Rockies)
Park Factor: Coors Field ranks #1 in park factors for home runs (204), making it the most hitter-friendly ballpark in MLB.
Key Metrics:
Overall Park Factor: 112 (12% more batter-friendly than average).
Home Run Factor: 204 (104% more home run-friendly than average).
Hard-Hit Rate: 100 (league average).
Why It’s a Top Pick:
The thin air in Denver significantly reduces air resistance, allowing balls to travel farther.
Both teams feature hitters capable of taking advantage of the conditions, such as Andrew Benintendi and Michael A. Taylor for the White Sox, and Ryan McMahon for the Rockies.
Game Time: 9:10 PM ET.
Chase Field (Kansas City Royals @ Arizona Diamondbacks)
Park Factor: Chase Field ranks #3 in park factors for home runs (194), making it another top venue for power hitters.
Key Metrics:
Overall Park Factor: 103 (3% more batter-friendly than average).
Home Run Factor: 194 (94% more home run-friendly than average).
Hard-Hit Rate: 102 (2% above league average).
Why It’s a Top Pick:
The retractable roof and dry desert air create ideal conditions for long balls.
Key hitters like Bobby Witt Jr. (Royals) and Eugenio Suárez (Diamondbacks) are well-positioned to capitalize on the favorable environment.
Game Time: 4:10 PM ET.
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