Today’s Top Homerun Props: MLB Best Bets for 7/9/25

Lee Shipley
Jul 9
3 min read

Top DINGERz MLB The Outlet Sports Ventures

Alright, it's a new day for some MLB action, and you know what that means: home run prop bets! We absolutely crushed it yesterday, hitting some big ones, and we're looking to keep that momentum rolling today. I've got my top home run prop recommendations for you, all powered by the incredible insights from Pine Sports AI JaXon. We're talking about a sweet combo of recent player performance, juicy matchups, and those all-important park factors. Let's go get 'em!

The Corey Seager Bomb (Texas Rangers)

Matchup: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels
Line: Over 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +250
Recent Performance: Seager has hit the over in 40% of his last 5 games and 50% of his last 10 games.
Season Performance: He has hit the over in 18.33% of his games this season, with 11 home runs.
Vs. Opponent (2025): Seager has hit the over in an impressive 60% of his 5 plate appearances against the Angels this season.
Location: On the road, he has hit the over in 16.67% of his games this season.
Book Link: BetRivers

Corey Seager has been red-hot, launching home runs in back-to-back games against the Angels and accumulating six homers with a 1.331 OPS over his last 11 games. He's up against Angels right-hander Kyle Hendricks, who has allowed 1.5 home runs per nine innings this season. While Seager's historical individual matchup against Hendricks is limited, his current form and his strong 2025 performance against the Angels (60% hit rate in 5 PAs) make him a prime candidate. Angel Stadium also offers a slightly favorable 113 HR park factor.

The Seiya Suzuki Bomb (Chicago Cubs)

Matchup: Chicago Cubs @ Minnesota Twins
Line: Over 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +386
Recent Performance: Suzuki has hit the over in 40% of his last 5 games and 40% of his last 10 games.
Season Performance: He has hit the over in 24.42% of his games this season, with 21 home runs.
Vs. Opponent (2025): Suzuki has not hit a home run in his single plate appearance against the Twins this season.
Location: On the road, he has hit the over in 26.19% of his games this season.
Book Link: Pinnacle

Seiya Suzuki is a strong play today, showing excellent recent batted ball metrics with the 6th-best barrel rate (22.6%) and 16th-highest flyball rate (51.6%) over the last 14 days. He's facing Twins right-hander David Festa, who has struggled against right-handed batters, giving up a .347 wOBA and 2.05 HR/9 to them. Festa has also allowed at least one home run in four of his last six outings. Target Field has a favorable 105 HR park factor, further boosting Suzuki's chances.

The Riley Greene Bomb (Detroit Tigers)

Prop: Home Runs Over 0.5
Odds: +399 Pinnacle

Reasoning for a Good Bet:

Riley Greene has shown a recent uptick in his home run production, hitting the over in 40% of his last 10 games, which is double his season average of 19.78%. He also has a highly favorable historical matchup against Tampa Bay Rays pitcher Zack Littell. In 10 plate appearances against Littell, Greene has collected 5 hits, including 2 doubles, resulting in a .556 batting average and a .778 slugging percentage. While he hasn't hit a home run against Littell yet, his strong contact and ability to get on base against this pitcher suggest a high probability of extra-base hits. Comerica Park is slightly below average for home runs (HR Park Factor 93), but Greene's strong recent form and excellent individual matchup make this a valuable long-shot bet at +399 odds.