Today’s Top Homerun Props: MLB Best Bets for 8/4/25
- Lee Shipley
- Aug 4
- 6 min read
The team is happy to be back with our DINGERZ article, after not posting the last two days. We are quietly working hard to build V.I.P even better! Here is a look at today's MLB games, where we'll be breaking down the most exciting home run possibilities and key batter-pitcher matchups. My insights and picks for the August 4, 2025 slate are all based on the powerful data and research from Pine Sports AI JaXon.
Today’s Top Homerun Hitters!
The Kyle Schwarber Bomb
(Philadelphia Phillies)
Line & Odds: Over 0.5 Home Runs at +185
Book Link: Fanduel
Analysis: Schwarber is a prime candidate to go deep today. He has been hitting the over on his home run prop in 50% of his last 20 games, showing consistent power. When playing at home in 2025, he has hit the over in 34.55% of his games. Citizens Bank Park, where the Phillies play, is known to be a hitter-friendly venue, especially for home runs, with a park factor of 114 for HRs in 2023-2025. This combination of recent form and a favorable park makes him a strong pick.
The Jordan Beck Bomb (Colorado Rockies)
Line & Odds: Over 0.5 Home Runs at +440
Book Link: Fanduel
Analysis: Beck has shown a recent surge in power, hitting the over on his home run prop in 60% of his last 5 games. While his season-long numbers are lower, his recent form is encouraging. Crucially, this game is being played at Field, which is by far the most hitter-friendly park in MLB with an overall park factor of 112 and a home run factor of 104 in 2023-2025. This park factor significantly boosts the probability of home runs, making Beck an attractive longshot pick, especially given his recent performance. C
📊 Today’s Key Batter vs. Pitcher Matchups!
Understanding how batters perform against specific pitchers can offer valuable insights. Here are some of today's most notable matchups:
Tommy Pham (Pittsburgh Pirates) vs. Justin Verlander (San Francisco Giants)
Analysis: Tommy Pham has historically dominated Justin Verlander. In 16 plate appearances, Pham boasts an impressive .533 batting average and a .933 slugging percentage, including one home run. This is a matchup where Pham has consistently found success, and he could be a key offensive factor for the Pirates today.
Game: San Francisco Giants @ Pittsburgh Pirates (6:40 PM ET)
Venue: PNC Park (HR Factor: 76)
William Contreras (Milwaukee Brewers) vs. Erick Fedde (Atlanta Braves)
Analysis: William Contreras has an outstanding track record against Erick Fedde. In 19 plate appearances, Contreras has a .563 batting average and a remarkable 1.000 slugging percentage, with two home runs. This is a highly favorable matchup for Contreras, suggesting he could have a big day at the plate.
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Atlanta Braves (7:15 PM ET)
Venue: Truist Park (HR Factor: 102)
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (Arizona Diamondbacks) vs. JP Sears (San Diego Padres)
Analysis: While based on a small sample size of 3 plate appearances, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has been incredibly effective against JP Sears, hitting one home run with a .667 batting average and a 1.667 slugging percentage. This indicates a strong power potential in this specific matchup.
Game: San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks (9:40 PM ET)
Venue: Chase Field (HR Factor: 90)
Teoscar Hernández (Los Angeles Dodgers) vs. Sonny Gray (St. Louis Cardinals)
Analysis: Teoscar Hernández has shown significant power against Sonny Gray, hitting two home runs in 22 plate appearances. While his batting average against Gray is lower at .190, his slugging percentage of .571 highlights his ability to connect for extra-base hits, particularly home runs, in this matchup.
Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Dodgers (10:10 PM ET)
Venue: Dodger Stadium (HR Factor: 129)
Today’s Long Shot Hitters!
The William Contreras Bomb (Milwaukee Brewers)
Prop: William Contreras Over 0.5 Home Runs
Line: 0.5
Odds: +675
Book: BetMGM
Game Details: Milwaukee Brewers @ Atlanta Braves, 7:15 PM ET at Truist Park.
Analysis:William Contreras faces Erick Fedde, a right-handed pitcher, at Truist Park. While Truist Park has a neutral overall park factor (100), its home run factor is slightly above average at 102, suggesting a minor boost for long balls.
Contreras's recent home run performance shows some flashes but isn't consistently strong. He has hit the over on his home run prop in 40% of his last 5 games, but only 20% in his last 10, and 10% in his last 20 games. His season average for home runs is 0.09 per game.
However, the matchup against Erick Fedde is where Contreras shines. In 19 career plate appearances against Fedde, Contreras has an impressive .563 batting average and a 1.000 slugging percentage, including 2 home runs. His expected slugging percentage (xSLG) against Fedde is a robust .941, and his expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) is .606, indicating strong contact quality and power potential in this specific matchup.
The Tommy Pham Bomb (Pittsburgh Pirates)
Prop: Tommy Pham Over 0.5 Home Runs
Line: 0.5
Odds: +1000
Book: Fanduel
Game Details: San Francisco Giants @ Pittsburgh Pirates, 6:40 PM ET at PNC Park.
Analysis:Tommy Pham is set to face right-handed pitcher Justin Verlander at PNC Park. PNC Park has a home run park factor of 76, which is significantly below average, making it a pitcher-friendly park for home runs. This is a notable headwind for any home run prop.
Pham's recent home run hitting has been sporadic. He has hit the over on his home run prop in 20% of his last 5 games, and 15% in his last 20 games. His season average for home runs is 0.06 per game.
Looking at his career numbers against Justin Verlander, Pham has a remarkable .533 batting average and a .933 slugging percentage in 16 plate appearances, including 1 home run. His expected slugging percentage (xSLG) against Verlander is .664, and his expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) is .481. This indicates that when Pham has faced Verlander, he has consistently made hard contact with power.
Recommendation:Despite the challenging park factor at PNC Park, Tommy Pham's exceptional career numbers against Justin Verlander cannot be ignored. His strong historical performance against Verlander suggests he has the ability to overcome the park's tendencies. This is a high-odds play, but the individual matchup data provides a compelling reason to consider it.
The Michael Conforto Bomb (Los Angeles Dodgers)
Prop: Michael Conforto Over 0.5 Home Runs
Line: 0.5
Odds: +525
Book: BetMGM
Game Details: St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Dodgers, 10:10 PM ET at Dodger Stadium.
Analysis: Michael Conforto will be up against right-handed pitcher Sonny Gray at Dodger Stadium. Dodger Stadium has a home run park factor of 129, which is very favorable for home runs, ranking among the highest in the league. This is a significant positive factor for a home run prop.
Conforto's recent home run performance shows very limited success. He has not hit the over on his home run prop in his last 5 games, and only 10% in his last 10 games and last 20 games. His season average for home runs is 0.09 per game.
In his career against Sonny Gray, Conforto has a .286 batting average and a .571 slugging percentage in 16 plate appearances, including 1 home run. His expected slugging percentage (xSLG) against Gray is .599, and his expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) is .425. These numbers suggest he has hit Gray well in the past, with good power.
Recommendation:
While Michael Conforto's recent home run production has been low, the combination of a highly favorable park factor at Dodger Stadium and his strong historical performance against Sonny Gray makes him a viable long-shot home run bet. The park factor alone provides a significant boost to home run potential.
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