Today’s Top MLB Homerun Props for 5/26/25

We know every batter loves stepping up to the plate and just thinking to send one deep? Each day, we dive into the data, sifting through matchups, hot streaks, and advanced metrics to pinpoint them hitters most likely to launch a dinger. This isn't just guesswork; all the insights you're about to read are powered by Pine Sports AI's incredible JaXon, and then meticulously hand-selected by an MLB analytics expert from our friends at OutLet Sports Ventures. So, grab your popcorn, settle in, and get ready to witness some bombs!

The Ketel Marte Bomb

(Arizona Diamondbacks)

• Opponent: Pittsburgh Pirates

• Game Date: May 27, 2025

• Best Line: Over 0.5 Home Runs (+279) at Pinnacle

Statistical Analysis:

• Recent Form: Marte has hit a home run in 40% of his last 5 games and 40% of his last 10 games.

• Season Performance: He has a 20.69% hit rate for home runs this season, averaging 0.28 home runs per game.

• Vs. Opponent: Against the Pirates in 2024, Marte hit a home run in 50% of his matchups, averaging 0.67 home runs per game.

• Home Performance: At home in 2025, Marte has a 21.43% hit rate for home runs, averaging 0.29 per game.

Recommendation:

Marte’s recent form and strong history against the Pirates (50% hit rate in 2024) make this a high-value underdog pick at +279 odds. However, his overall season consistency for home runs is low, so this is a riskier play.

The Bobby Witt Bomb

(Kansas City Royals)

• Opponent: Cincinnati Reds

• Game Date: May 26, 2025

• Best Line: Over 0.5 Home Runs (+525) at BetMGM

Statistical Analysis:

• Recent Form: Witt Jr. has not hit a home run in his last 5 or 10 games.

• Season Performance: He has a 9.26% hit rate for home runs this season, averaging 0.09 home runs per game.

• Vs. Opponent: Against the Reds in 2024, Witt Jr. hit a home run in 33.33% of matchups, averaging 0.33 home runs per game.

• Home Performance: At home in 2025, Witt Jr. has a 7.69% hit rate for home runs, averaging 0.08 per game.

Recommendation:

While Witt Jr.’s season-long home run rate is low, his 33.33% hit rate against the Reds in 2024 adds intrigue. At +525 odds, this is a long-shot bet with significant upside but limited statistical support.

The Seiya Suzuki Bomb (Chicago Cubs)

• Recent Performance: Suzuki has been hot, hitting the over in 60% of his last 5 games and averaging 0.6 home runs per game in that span.

• Matchup Factors: The Rockies’ pitching staff has struggled, and Suzuki’s power at home (17.39% hit rate for home runs) could exploit this weakness.

• Odds: The best odds for Suzuki to hit a home run are +525 at BetMGM.

• Analysis: Suzuki’s recent form and the favorable matchup against a weak Rockies pitching staff make him a strong pick.

The Honorable Mentions!

Shohei Ohtani (Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cleveland Guardians)

• Confidence Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐