Today’s Top MLB Homerun Props for 8/12/25
- Lee Shipley
- Aug 12
- 5 min read
We come into today off a huge day where we cashed in on almost $800 in home run bets, it's time to get back to it! Let's dive into today's MLB slate and find some hitters who are prime to launch a home run. I've broken down their recent slugging numbers, checked for favorable matchups against pitchers, and looked at the park factors to see who has the best shot. Based on all that, I've got five strong recommendations for today's games. All this data and research is provided by Pine Sports AI, JaXon. Let’s get to work!
Today’s Top Homerun Hitters!
The Joc Pederson Bomb (Texas Rangers)
Line: 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +400
Book: ESPN BET
Joc Pederson is facing Anthony DeSclafani and the Arizona Diamondbacks today at Globe Life Field. While his recent home run hit rates have been low (20% over his last 5 and 10 games, and 6.67% for the season), the historical matchup against DeSclafani is incredibly compelling.
Matchup Advantage: Pederson has a fantastic career track record against right-handed pitcher Anthony DeSclafani. In 19 career at-bats against DeSclafani, Pederson has collected 9 hits, including 4 home runs, boasting an impressive .474 batting average and a 1.211 slugging percentage. His expected slugging percentage (xSLG) in this matchup is also very high at 1.115, indicating that his power numbers against DeSclafani are not flukes. His average exit velocity of 97.6 MPH and launch angle of 21.3 degrees against DeSclafani are ideal for home run production.
Park Factor: Globe Life Field, the home of the Texas Rangers, has a slightly favorable park factor for home runs, rated at 104, meaning it's 4% more conducive to home runs than the average MLB park.
Recommendation: Given his exceptional historical performance against DeSclafani, I'm recommending Joc Pederson to hit a Home Run at +400 odds. This is an underdog pick, but the head-to-head numbers make it a strong consideration.
The Kyle Schwarber Bomb (Philadelphia Phillies)
Matchup: Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds
Time: 6:40 PM ET
Line: Over 0.5 Home Runs (+170)
Book: BetRivers
Analysis:
Kyle Schwarber is a prime candidate to go deep tonight. He has hit over 0.5 home runs in 40% of his last five games and 40% of his last ten games, averaging 0.36 home runs per game this season. He's facing Brady Singer, a right-handed pitcher who has shown a tendency to give up the long ball, especially to left-handed hitters. News reports indicate Singer has allowed a home run in four of his last five starts, with 11 of his 14 home runs allowed this season coming against lefties. While Schwarber hasn't hit a home run against Singer in their five career plate appearances, he has slugged an impressive .800 with two doubles in those matchups, showing he can hit Singer hard. Furthermore, the game is being played at Great American Ball Park, which boasts a very favorable 122 HR park factor, making it one of the most home run-friendly venues in baseball.
The Junior Caminero Bomb (Tampa Bay Rays)
Matchup: Tampa Bay Rays at Oakland Athletics
Time: 10:05 PM ET
Line: Over 0.5 Home Runs (+300)
Book: BetRivers
Analysis:
Junior Caminero presents an intriguing opportunity tonight. He has hit over 0.5 home runs in a remarkable 80% of his last five games and 50% of his last ten games, indicating a recent surge in power. His season average is 0.29 home runs per game. The key factor here is his individual matchup against left-handed pitcher Jacob Lopez. In their limited history, Caminero has hit one home run in just two plate appearances against Lopez, boasting an incredible 2.000 slugging percentage and a 1.023 wOBA. This suggests a highly favorable individual matchup for Caminero to capitalize on.
The Corbin Carroll Bomb (Arizona Diamondbacks)
Matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks at Texas Rangers
Time: 8:05 PM ET
Line: Over 0.5 Home Runs (+280)
Book: BetRivers
Analysis:
Corbin Carroll is showing strong recent form, hitting over 0.5 home runs in 80% of his last five games and 50% of his last ten games. His season average stands at 0.25 home runs per game. He's facing Jack Leiter, a right-handed pitcher for whom no career stats against the current Diamondbacks roster are available, which can sometimes create an advantage for hitters unfamiliar with the pitcher. The game is being played at Globe Life Field, which has a 104 HR park factor, indicating it's slightly more favorable for home runs than the average MLB stadium. Carroll has also hit a home run against the Rangers in their 2025 matchups, demonstrating his ability to perform against this opponent.
Today’s Long Shot Hitters!
The Rafael Devers Bomb
(San Francisco Giants)
Matchup: San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants
Time: 9:45 PM ET
Line: Over 0.5 Home Runs (+450)
Book: ESPN BET
Analysis:
Rafael Devers has hit over 0.5 home runs in 60% of his last five games and 40% of his last ten games, with a season average of 0.20 home runs per game. He's facing Nestor Cortes, a left-handed pitcher. Devers has a strong history against Cortes, hitting two home runs in 21 career plate appearances with a .611 slugging percentage. While Oracle Park has a less favorable 80 HR park factor, Devers' strong individual matchup history against Cortes, combined with his recent power surge, makes him a compelling long-shot pick.
The Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Bomb (Toronto Blue Jays)
Matchup: Chicago Cubs at Toronto Blue Jays
Time: 7:07 PM ET
Line: Over 0.5 Home Runs (+440)
Book: BetRivers
Analysis:
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has hit over 0.5 home runs in 60% of his last five games and 40% of his last ten games. His season average is 0.16 home runs per game. He's facing Ben Brown, a right-handed pitcher for whom no career stats against the current Blue Jays roster are available. However, news reports highlight that Jose Berrios, another right-handed pitcher for the Blue Jays, has surrendered the most home runs in MLB since the start of 2022, with severe reverse-splits against right-handed batters in 2025. This narrative suggests a favorable environment for right-handed power hitters like Guerrero Jr. The game is at Rogers Centre, which has a 102 HR park factor, indicating it's slightly conducive to home runs.
The Brandon Nimmo Bomb (New York Mets)
Line: 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +576
Book: Pinnacle
Brandon Nimmo and the New York Mets are hosting the Atlanta Braves today at Citi Field, with Spencer Strider on the mound for the Braves. Nimmo hasn't hit a home run in his last 15 games, but his career numbers against Strider offer an intriguing angle.
Matchup Advantage: Nimmo has shown power against right-handed pitcher Spencer Strider in their past encounters. In 22 career at-bats against Strider, Nimmo has hit 2 home runs, along with 9 hits overall, resulting in a .409 batting average and a .864 slugging percentage. His expected slugging percentage (xSLG) against Strider is .473. While his recent form hasn't included many long balls, his ability to connect against Strider in the past is notable.
Park Factor: Citi Field, the Mets' home ballpark, has a home run park factor of 103, indicating it's slightly above average for home run production.
Recommendation: Despite his recent cold streak, the historical data against Spencer Strider makes Brandon Nimmo to hit a Home Run an interesting long-shot play at +576 odds. This is another underdog pick, relying on his past success in this specific matchup.
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