Today’s Top MLB Homerun Props for 8/22/25
- Lee Shipley
- Aug 22
- 5 min read
Another day, another chance to hit a home run! Yesterday's DINGERZ article led to some big cashes, and we're always happy to celebrate a win. We're not trying to be some big-time sports analysts, but we'll admit we're pretty good at what we do here at The Outlet SV.
I've been knee deep in the data, looking at today's MLB matchups to find the guys most likely to hit one out of the park. My picks are based on recent performance, how hitters have fared against opposing pitchers in the past, and key park factors. So, let's get into my top picks for the day, complete with detailed analysis and betting insights.
And remember, all the data and research is powered by Pine Sports AI JaXon.
Today’s Top Homerun Hitters!
The Nolan Gorman Bomb
(St. Louis Cardinals)
💰 Betting Details (Over 0.5 Home Runs)
Line: 0.5
Odds: +450
Book: ESPN BET
Nolan Gorman and the St. Louis Cardinals are set to face the Tampa Bay Rays today. The Rays will have right-handed pitcher Adrian Houser on the mound.
📊 Home Run Prop Analysis: Over 0.5 HR:
Recent Performance: Nolan Gormanhas struggled to hit the over on his home run prop recently, hitting it in only 20% of his last 5, 10, 15, and 20 games. His season-long hit rate for the over is 14.29%.
Vs. Opponent: In his limited exposure to the Tampa Bay Rays in 2025, he has not hit a home run (0.0% over hit rate in 1 game). He also had a 0.0% over hit rate in 3 games against them in 2024.
Location: When playing on the road as a visitor in 2025, he has hit the over on his home run prop in 11.36% of his games.
Odds: The best odds for Nolan Gormanto hit over 0.5 home runs are +450.
Given Nolan Gorman's very low recent and season-long hit rates for home runs, coupled with his 0% success against the Rays in recent matchups, the data does not strongly support an "over" recommendation for his home run prop today. While the odds are enticing at +450, the statistical trends indicate a low probability of this outcome.
The Kyle Schwarber Bomb (Philadelphia Phillies)
💰 Betting Details (Over 0.5 Home Runs)
Matchup: Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies
Time: 6:45 PM ET
Line: Over 0.5 Home Runs (+188)
Book: BetRivers
Analysis: Kyle Schwarber stands out as a prime home run candidate today. He boasts an impressive 33.07% season-long hit rate for home runs, indicating consistent power throughout the year. His recent form is solid, hitting the over in 40% of his last 5 and last 10 games. The Philadelphia Phillies are playing at Citizens Bank Park, which has a highly favorable HR Park Factor of 115, meaning it's significantly more hitter-friendly for home runs than the average MLB stadium.
Schwarber faces right-handed pitcher Cade Cavalli. While his direct stats against Cavalli in a small sample show no home runs, his underlying metrics are promising. He has a strong expected wOBA (xwOBA) of 0.423 and a high exit velocity (EV) of 103.1 MPH against Cavalli, suggesting that when he makes contact, it's hard and has home run potential. Furthermore, Schwarber has shown a knack for hitting against the Nationals in 2025, with a 50% hit rate for home runs in 10 plate appearances against them this season. All signs point to Schwarber having a strong chance to go deep.
The Vinnie Pasquantino Bomb (Kansas City Royals)
💰 Betting Details (Over 0.5 Home Runs)
Matchup: Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers
Time: 7:10 PM ET
Line: Over 0.5 Home Runs (+475)
Book: BetRivers
Analysis: Vinnie Pasquantino presents an intriguing opportunity with his recent power surge. He has been on fire, hitting the over in an impressive 80% of his last 5 games and 60% of his last 10 games. While his season-long home run rate is 19.05%, his recent performance indicates he's found his rhythm.
Pasquantino will be up against right-handed pitcher Casey Mize. In 10 career plate appearances against Mize, Pasquantino has a 0.333 slugging percentage and a very strong expected wOBA (xwOBA) of 0.504, coupled with a 92.7 MPH exit velocity and a 22.0-degree launch angle. These advanced metrics suggest he hits the ball hard and at an optimal angle for home runs when facing Mize.
Although Comerica Park has a slightly pitcher-friendly HR Park Factor of 98, Pasquantino's recent form and strong underlying numbers against Mize make him a compelling pick at these odds.
The Shea Langeliers Bomb (Oakland Athletics)
💰 Betting Details (Over 0.5 Home Runs)
Matchup: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners
Time: 10:10 PM ET
Line: Over 0.5 Home Runs (+450)
Book: DraftKings
Analysis: Shea Langeliers is another hitter showing excellent recent power. He has hit the over in 80% of his last 5 games and 60% of his last 10 games, demonstrating a significant uptick in his home run production. His season-long home run hit rate is a solid 27.08%
Langeliers has also performed well against the Seattle Mariners in 2025, hitting the over in 33.33% of his 9 plate appearances against them this season.
While T-Mobile Park has a pitcher-friendly HR Park Factor of 92, Langeliers current hot streak and proven ability to hit against the Mariners make him a strong consideration. His recent form suggests he's seeing the ball well and is capable of overcoming the park's tendencies.
The Ben Rice Bomb
(New York Yankees)
💰 Betting Details (Over 0.5 Home Runs)
Matchup: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees
Time: 7:05 PM ET
Line: Over 0.5 Home Runs (+350)
Book: ESPN Bet
Analysis: Ben Rice is playing at Yankee Stadium, which is a significant advantage for home run hitters, boasting a very high HR Park Factor of 120. This park is known for its short porch in right field, making it highly conducive to home runs. Rice has been in good recent form, hitting the over in 60% of his last 5 games!
He faces right-handed pitcher Brayan Bello. In 5 plate appearances against Bello, Rice has a 0.200 slugging percentage, but his 26.7-degree launch angle indicates he's hitting the ball in the air, which is crucial for home runs, especially in a park like Yankee Stadium. Given the favorable park conditions and his recent power, Rice is a strong candidate to hit a home run today.
Today’s Top Long Shot Hitters!
The Bryan Reynolds Bomb (Pittsburgh Pirates)
💰 Betting Details (Over 0.5 Home Runs)
Line: 0.5
Odds: +750
Book: BetMGM
Bryan Reynolds and the Pittsburgh Pirates are playing at home against the Colorado Rockies today, facing right-handed pitcher Antonio Senzatela.
📊 Home Run Prop Analysis: Over 0.5 Home Runs
Recent Performance: Bryan Reynoldshas an extremely low hit rate for the over on his home run prop, hitting it in 0% of his last 5 games and only 10% of his last 10 and 20 games. His season-long hit rate is 9.92%.
Vs. Opponent: He has not hit a home run against the Colorado Rockies in 2025 (0.0% over hit rate in 3 games), though he did hit one in 16.67% of his 6 games against them in 2024.
Park Factors: PNC Park, the Pirates' home stadium, has a home run park factor of 76 for 2023-2025, meaning it's 24% less favorable for home runs than the average MLB park. This is a significant factor working against home run props.
Odds: The best odds for Bryan Reynolds to hit over 0.5 home runs are +750.
Considering Bryan Reynolds consistently low home run hit rates, especially his 0% over hit rate in the last 5 games and against the Rockies this season, combined with PNC Park being a pitcher-friendly venue for home runs, the data does not support an "over" recommendation for his home run prop today. The high odds reflect the low probability of this outcome.
The Cody Bellinger Bomb (New York Yankees)
💰 Betting Details (Over 0.5 Home Runs)
Line: 0.5
Odds: +475
Book: BetMGM
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