Today’s Top MLB Homerun Props for 8/24/25
- Lee Shipley
- Aug 24
- 4 min read
Time to hit some dingers! Let's get into today's MLB slate and pinpoint the batters most likely to go deep. We'll be looking at their power stats against opposing pitchers and checking for favorable park factors to find the best home run props. All this data and research is powered by Pine Sports AI JaXon. Here are my top picks for today:
Today’s Top Homerun Hitters!
The Bryson Stott Bomb (Philadelphia Phillies)
Recommendation: Consider Bryson StottOver 0.5 Home Runs at +540.
Game: Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies
Home Run Line: Over 0.5 (+540)
Analysis: Bryson Stott has a 40% hit rate for home runs over his last 5 games, which is a strong recent indicator. Over his last 10 games, he's hit the over 20% of the time, and 10% over his last 20 games. His season-long hit rate is 7.83%, averaging 0.08 home runs. Against the Washington Nationals, he's hit the over in 18.18% of his 2025 matchups and 16.67% of his 2024 matchups, averaging 0.18 and 0.17 home runs respectively. Playing at home, his hit rate for home runs is 9.26%. The recent surge in his last 5 games, combined with decent historical performance against the Nationals, makes the +540 odds an interesting proposition.
The Juan Soto Bomb
(New York Mets)
Prop: Juan Soto Over 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +350
Book: ESPN Bet
Matchup: New York Mets at Atlanta Braves
Opposing Pitcher: Bryce Elder (RHP)
Analysis: Juan Soto has been a consistent power threat throughout the season, hitting the over on his home run prop in 40% of his last five games. What truly makes him stand out today is his exceptional performance against the Atlanta Braves this season, where he's already launched 5 home runs in just 12 plate appearances, boasting an impressive 41.67% over hit rate against them. His individual matchup against Bryce Elder is particularly enticing; Soto holds a .600 batting average and a staggering 1.200 slugging percentage against Elder, including a home run in their limited encounters. His expected slugging percentage (xSLG) of 1.050 against Elder further underscores his power potential in this specific matchup. Truist Park, with a home run park factor of 103, also leans slightly towards favoring hitters, providing a conducive environment for Soto to go deep.
The Christian Walker Bomb (Houston Astros)
Prop: Christian Walker Over 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +400
Book: ESPN Bet
Matchup: Houston Astros at Baltimore Orioles
Opposing Pitcher: Trevor Rogers (LHP)
Analysis: Christian Walker enters today's game with strong recent form, having hit the over on his home run prop in 60% of his last five games. His history against the Baltimore Orioles this season is particularly compelling, as he's blasted 3 home runs in just 5 plate appearances, translating to a remarkable 60% over hit rate against them. When facing today's starting pitcher, Trevor Rogers, Walker has demonstrated significant power, recording a .800 slugging percentage and an expected slugging percentage (xSLG) of .734, along with a home run in 5 plate appearances. Oriole Park at Camden Yards is also a favorable venue for power hitters, boasting a home run park factor of 107.
The Willson Contreras Bomb (St. Louis Cardinals)
Prop: Willson Contreras Over 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +390
Book: Fanduel
Matchup: St. Louis Cardinals at Tampa Bay Rays
Opposing Pitcher: Ryan Pepiot (RHP)
Analysis: Willson Contreras has been showing good power recently, hitting the over on his home run prop in 60% of his last five games. His performance against the Tampa Bay Rays this season is exceptionally strong, with a perfect 100% over hit rate, having hit 2 home runs in just 2 plate appearances against them. While he hasn't faced today's starting pitcher, Ryan Pepiot, in his career, his proven ability to hit home runs against the Rays' pitching staff this season makes him a prime candidate. The specific park factor for George M. Steinbrenner Field is not available in the data, but Contreras's recent form and success against this opponent are highly indicative of his home run potential.
The Matt Olson Bomb (Atlanta Braves)
Prop: Matt Olson Over 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +520
Book: Fanduel
Matchup: New York Mets at Atlanta Braves
Opposing Pitcher: David Peterson (LHP)
Analysis: Despite a recent cold streak in his last five games, Matt Olson presents a compelling home run opportunity due to his historical dominance against today's opposing pitcher, David Peterson. Olson has a phenomenal track record against Peterson, having hit 4 home runs in 25 career plate appearances. He boasts an impressive .810 slugging percentage and a .795 expected slugging percentage (xSLG) against Peterson, indicating a high likelihood of powerful contact. Truist Park, the venue for today's game, also features a slightly hitter-friendly home run park factor of 103, which could help Olson capitalize on this favorable individual matchup.
Todays Best Long Shots
The Francisco Lindor Bomb (New York Mets)
Game: New York Mets at Atlanta Braves
Home Run Line: Over 0.5 (+475)
Analysis: Francisco Lindor has shown some recent pop, hitting the over on his home run prop in 20% of his last 5 games and 30% of his last 10 games. Over the last 20 games, he's hit the over 20% of the time, with a mean of 0.25 home runs. For the entire season, he's cleared this line in 17.19% of his games, averaging 0.2 home runs. When facing the Atlanta Braves in 2024, he hit the over in 38.46% of his matchups, averaging 0.38 home runs. While his 2025 performance against the Braves is lower (8.33% over, 0.08 mean), his historical success against them in 2024 suggests he can elevate his game in this rivalry. The odds of +475 offer significant value if you believe he can connect today.
Recommendation: Consider Francisco Lindor Over 0.5 Home Runs at +475.
The Warming Bernabel Bomb (Colorado Rockies)
Game: Colorado Rockies at Pittsburgh Pirates
Home Run Line: Over 0.5 (+900)
Analysis: Warming Bernabel has a lower recent hit rate for home runs, with 0% over his last 5 games and 10% over his last 10 games. His season-long hit rate is 15.38%, averaging 0.15 home runs. However, in his limited 2025 appearances against the Pittsburgh Pirates, he's hit the over in 20% of games, averaging 0.2 home runs. While the overall numbers are modest, the high odds of +900 reflect the long-shot nature of this prop, but also offer a substantial payout if he manages to go deep.
Recommendation: For a high-reward, low-probability play, consider Warming Bernabel Over 0.5 Home Runs at +900.
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