Today’s Top MLB Homerun Props for 8/25/25
- Lee Shipley
- 2 hours ago
- 6 min read
We have another opportunity to cash in on some DINGERZ! So, Let's get right into today's MLB slate and talk about some guys who are primed to hit one out of the park. We're going to break down their recent hot streaks, how they've fared against the pitchers they're facing, and what the stadium they're playing in could mean for their power. All the data and research for these picks are powered by Pine Sports AI and our boy JaXon, so you know it's legit. Here are my top five home run recommendations for today.
Today’s Top Homerun Hitters!
The Riley Greene Bomb (Detroit Tigers)
Recommendation: Over 0.5 Home Runs at +400
Matchup: Detroit Tigers at Athletics
Analysis: Riley Greene has hit the over on his home run prop in 40% of his last 5 games and 40% of his last 10 games. As a left-handed hitter, Greene is in a highly advantageous position against J.T. Ginn, a right-handed pitcher. News reports indicate that Ginn has struggled with the long ball, conceding 13 home runs in just 60 innings this season, with a significant portion coming from left-handed hitters who are slugging an impressive .633 against him. Greene's expected slugging percentage (xSLG) against Ginn is a staggering 1.188, making him a strong candidate to connect for a home run in this matchup.
The Vinnie Pasquantino Bomb (Kansas City Royals)
Recommendation: Over 0.5 Home Runs at +370
Matchup: Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox
Analysis: Vinnie Pasquantino has been on an absolute tear, hitting the over on his home run prop in an impressive 80% of his last 5 games, and 60% over his last 10. The news highlights his incredible hot streak, with 6 home runs in his last 7 games, making him one of the hottest hitters in baseball. As a left-handed hitter, Pasquantino faces Shane Smith, a right-handed pitcher who has shown vulnerability to lefties, allowing 10 of his 13 home runs this season to them. Pasquantino boasts a strong .512 slugging percentage against right-handed pitching, making this a highly favorable matchup despite limited direct career stats against Smith. While Rate Field has a slightly pitcher-friendly HR park factor of 96, Pasquantino's current form and the handedness advantage against Smith could easily lead to another long ball.
The George Springer Bomb (Toronto Blue Jays)
Recommendation: Over 0.5 Home Runs at +370
Matchup: Minnesota Twins at Toronto Blue Jays
Analysis: George Springer has shown recent pop, hitting the over on his home run prop in 60% of his last 5 games. What truly stands out is his exceptional performance against the Minnesota Twins in 2025, where he has a remarkable 66.67% over hit rate, having already launched 2 home runs in just 3 plate appearances against them. He faces Joe Ryan, a right-handed pitcher, and in their career matchups, Springer has posted an impressive .800 slugging percentage and a .647 expected slugging percentage (xSLG) against him, including two doubles in five plate appearances. Rogers Centre also offers a slight advantage for hitters, with a home run park factor of 103.
The Jazz Chisholm Jr. Bomb (New York Yankees)
Recommendation: Over 0.5 Home Runs at +325
Matchup: Washington Nationals at New York Yankees
Analysis: Jazz Chisholm Jr. has hit the over on his home run prop in 20% of his last 5 games and 30% of his last 10 games. While he hasn't faced today's starting pitcher, Brad Lord, in his career, Chisholm Jr. has a strong historical performance against the Washington Nationals, hitting 4 home runs in 10 plate appearances against them in 2024, resulting in a 40% over hit rate. The most compelling factor for Chisholm Jr. today is Yankee Stadium itself, which is notoriously hitter-friendly, especially for home runs, boasting a park factor of 120. This environment significantly increases the potential for any power hitter to go deep.
The Junior Caminero Bomb (Tampa Bay Rays)
Recommendation: Over 0.5 Home Runs at +400
Matchup: Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Guardians
Analysis: Junior Caminero has shown consistent power recently, hitting the over on his home run prop in 40% of his last 5 games and 40% of his last 10 games, with an even better 53.33% hit rate over his last 15 games. He faces Tanner Bibee, a right-handed pitcher, and in their limited career matchups, Caminero has a .333 slugging percentage and a very high .732 expected slugging percentage (xSLG) against Bibee. This indicates strong power potential in this specific matchup. While Progressive Field has a pitcher-friendly HR park factor of 85, Caminero's strong xSLG against Bibee suggests he has the ability to overcome this and connect for a home run.
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Today’s Best Long Shot Homerun Props!
The Gleyber Torres Bomb (Detroit Tigers)
Best Over Odds (0.5 Home Runs): +700 on BetMGM
Gleyber Torres, playing for the Detroit Tigers against the Oakland Athletics, presents an interesting case for home run potential. While his overall recent and season-long home run hit percentages are low, there's a notable statistic against his specific opponent.
Recent Performance: Torres has not hit a home run in his last 5, 10, or 15 games. Over his last 20 games, he has hit the over on home runs in 10% of contests, with an average of 0.1 home runs. His season-long hit rate for home runs is 10.34%, averaging 0.11 home runs per game.
Vs. Opponent (Oakland Athletics): In 2025, Torres has faced the Oakland Athletics 3 times and has hit a home run in 33.33% of those matchups, averaging 0.33 home runs. This is a significantly higher rate than his overall recent and season averages, suggesting he might find success against this particular opponent. In 2024, his hit rate against them was 14.29% over 7 games.
Location: When playing as a visitor in 2025, his home run hit rate is 8.93%, averaging 0.09 home runs over 56 games.
Considering his recent performance, Gleyber Torres isn't a consistent home run threat. However, his higher hit rate against the Oakland Athletics in 2025 could be a factor if you're looking for a long-shot option.
The Corbin Carroll Bomb (Arizona Diamondbacks)
Best Over Odds (0.5 Home Runs): +310 on BetRivers
Corbin Carroll, playing for the Arizona Diamondbacks against the Milwaukee Brewers, does not show strong indicators for hitting a home run today based on the available data.
Recent Performance: Carroll has not hit a home run in his last 5 games. Over his last 10 games, he has hit the over on home runs in 10% of contests, averaging 0.1 home runs. This rate increases slightly to 20% over his last 15 games (0.2 HRs average) and 25% over his last 20 games (0.25 HRs average). His season-long hit rate for home runs is 20.18%, averaging 0.24 home runs per game.
Vs. Opponent (Milwaukee Brewers):Carroll has not hit a home run against the Milwaukee Brewers in his 3 matchups in 2025 or his 7 matchups in 2024.
Location: When playing as a visitor in 2025, his home run hit rate is 21.43%, averaging 0.27 home runs over 56 games.
While Carroll has shown some power this season, his recent form and historical performance against the Brewers do not strongly suggest a home run today.
The Jurickson Profar Bomb (Atlanta Braves)
Best Over Odds (0.5 Home Runs): +650 on BetRivers
Jurickson Profar, playing for the Atlanta Braves against the Miami Marlins, also has limited statistical support for hitting a home run today.
Recent Performance: Profar has hit a home run in 20% of his last 5 games, averaging 0.2 home runs. This increases to 30% over his last 10 games (0.4 HRs average) and 30% over his last 20 games (0.35 HRs average). His season-long hit rate for home runs is 18.0%, averaging 0.2 home runs per game.
Vs. Opponent (Miami Marlins): In 2025, Profar has faced the Miami Marlins 5 times and has hit a home run in 20% of those matchups, averaging 0.2 home runs. In 2024, his hit rate against them was 16.67% over 6 games.
Location: When playing as a visitor in 2025, his home run hit rate is particularly low at 8.0%, averaging 0.08 home runs over 25 games.
Based on these statistics, Profar's home run potential for today is not strongly indicated, especially given his performance in visitor games.
