Today’s Top MLB Homerun Props for 8/26/25
- Lee Shipley
- 15 minutes ago
- 4 min read
Let's talk some baseball! We're diving into today's MLB matchups to pinpoint which batters are primed to send one into orbit. We're talking recent hot streaks, who they've owned on the mound before, and which parks are serving up dingers. All this data and research is powered by Pine Sports AI, JaXon. Yeah, we bet unfair!
Today’s Top Homerun Props!
The Nick Kurtz Bomb (Oakland Athletics)
Game: Detroit Tigers @ Athletics
Prop: Home Runs Over 0.5
Odds: +300
Book: Fanduel
📊 Analysis:
Nick Kurtz, a left-handed hitter, presents a compelling case for a home run today, especially considering the park factors. While specific park factor numbers for Sutter Health Park were not available in the detailed data, news reports indicate that the park allows a high slugging percentage of .633 to left-handed hitters, which is a significant advantage for Kurtz. He also has an impressive historical performance against today's opponent, the Detroit Tigers, having hit 2 home runs in just 4 plate appearances against them in 2025, averaging 0.5 home runs per plate appearance. Although his recent overall home run average is 0.4 over his last 5 and 10 games, his strong historical matchup against the Tigers and the favorable park conditions for lefties make him a strong candidate to connect for a long ball. FanGraphs also notes Kurtz's ability to hit, with an OPS over 1.000, suggesting he's a hitter capable of driving the ball.
The Giancarlo Stanton Bomb (New York Yankees)
Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Yankees
Prop: Home Runs Over 0.5
Odds: +260
Book: BetMGM
📊 Analysis:
Giancarlo Stanton, a perennial power threat, is playing in one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in MLB today. Yankee Stadium boasts a home run park factor of 120, meaning it yields 20% more home runs than the average stadium, which is a significant advantage for a slugger like Stanton. While his career numbers against today's opposing pitcher, MacKenzie Gore (LHP), show no hits or home runs in 5 plate appearances, his recent form indicates he's finding his rhythm. He has averaged 0.6 home runs over his last 10 games, hitting the over in 50% of those contests. Given his immense power and the favorable park environment, Stanton is a prime candidate to launch one out of the park.
The Jarren Duran Bomb (Boston Red Sox)
Line: 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +420
Book: Fanduel
📊 Statistical Breakdown:
Jarren Duran, while capable of extra-base hits, also shows low home run probabilities based on the available data.
Recent Performance: He has hit the over on 0.5 home runs in 20.0% of his last 5 games, but this drops to 10.0% over his last 10 games and 10.0% over his last 20 games.
Season-Long Trend: His season-long hit rate for over 0.5 home runs is 10.69%, averaging 0.11 home runs per game.
Opponent Matchup: Against the Baltimore Orioles in 2025, he has hit 3 home runs in 11 appearances, giving him a 27.27% hit rate against this specific opponent this season. This is his strongest matchup statistic among the players analyzed.
Despite the slightly better head-to-head against the Orioles, his overall and recent trends still indicate a low probability for a home run.
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Homerun Props!
The Luis Arraez Bomb
(San Diego Padres)
💰 Betting Details (Over 0.5 Home Runs):
Line: 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +1150
Book: BetMGM
📊 Statistical Breakdown:
Luis Arraezis known more for his exceptional contact hitting and high batting average rather than power. His recent and season-long home run statistics clearly reflect this:
Recent Performance: He has not hit a home run in his last 5, 10, 15, or even 20 games.
Season-Long Trend: Over the entire season, he has hit the over on 0.5 home runs in only 4.76% of his games, averaging a mere 0.05 home runs per game.
Opponent Matchup: Against the Seattle Mariners in 2025, he has not recorded a home run in 4 appearances.
Given these statistics, the data does not indicate a good chance for Luis Arraez to hit a home run today.
The Nick Castellanos Bomb (Philadelphia Phillies)
💰 Betting Details (Over 0.5 Home Runs):
Line: 0.5 Home Runs
Odds: +520
Book: Fanduel
📊 Statistical Breakdown:
Nick Castellanoshas shown some power throughout his career, but recent trends suggest a low probability for a home run today.
Recent Performance: He has not hit a home run in his last 5 games. Looking further back, he's hit the over on 0.5 home runs in only 10.0% of his last 10 games and 10.0% of his last 20 games.
Season-Long Trend: His season-long hit rate for over 0.5 home runs stands at 12.8%, averaging 0.13 home runs per game.
Opponent Matchup: Against the New York Mets in 2025, he has hit one home run in 6 appearances, resulting in a 16.67% hit rate.
Based on these numbers, the likelihood of Nick Castellanos hitting a home run today is low.
The Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Bomb (Arizona Diamondbacks)
Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Milwaukee Brewers
Prop: Home Runs Over 0.5
Odds: +540
Book: Fanduel
📊 Analysis:
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. enters today's game with solid recent home run production, averaging 0.6 home runs over his last 5 games and hitting the over in 60% of those appearances. He also has a strong historical track record against the Milwaukee Brewers, his opponent today, having hit 1 home run in just 4 plate appearances against them in 2025 and another in 2 plate appearances in 2024. This suggests he sees the ball well against this team. The game will be played at American Family Field, which has a hitter-friendly home run park factor of 106, further boosting his chances. While he has not faced the Brewers' starting pitcher, Jacob Misiorowski, in his career, the combination of his recent power, historical success against the team, and a favorable park makes him an intriguing pick.
