Today’s Top MLB Homerun Props For 8/27/25
- Lee Shipley
- Aug 27
- 5 min read
Time to cash some dingers! I've got my top home run prop picks for today's MLB slate, and let me tell you, the research is on another level. All my data and analysis is powered by Pineworth AI, JaXon! We're not just betting smart, we're betting unfair!
Today’s Top Homerun Hitters!
The Giancarlo Stanton Bomb (New York Yankees)
Prop: Home Runs Over 0.5
Odds: +290
Book: BetMGM
📊 Analysis: Giancarlo Stanton, known for his elite power, is a strong pick for a home run today, especially playing at Yankee Stadium, which boasts a very favorable HR park factor of 120. He has hit over his home run line in 40% of his last 5 games and 50% of his last 10 games, with a season hit rate of 31.37%. The Yankees are facing Washington Nationals right-hander Cade Cavalli, who, according to recent reports, has given up 16 home runs in just 18 appearances this season. Stanton's ability to punish mistakes, combined with the hitter-friendly confines of Yankee Stadium and Cavalli's propensity to give up dingers, makes this a compelling play.
The Mark Vientos Bomb
(New York Mets)
Prop: Home Runs Over 0.5
Odds: +425
Book: BetMGM
📊 Analysis: Mark Vientos has been showing signs of the power hitter he can be, especially over the last few weeks. He has hit over his home run line in 40% of his last 5 games and 40% of his last 10 games. He's currently on a nine-game hitting streak, during which he's launched five home runs. The Mets are hosting the Philadelphia Phillies, and Vientos will face right-hander Taijuan Walker. While Vientos has limited career at-bats against Walker (4 at-bats), he already has a home run against him. Walker has been susceptible to the long ball this year, allowing 15 home runs in 96.2 innings, with right-handed hitters doing significant damage against him. Playing at Citi Field, which has a HR park factor of 103, also provides a slight boost for Vientos's power potential.
The Vinnie Pasquantino Bomb (Kansas City Royals)
Prop: Home Runs Over 0.5
Odds: +375
Book: BetMGM
📊 Analysis: Vinnie Pasquantino has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball recently, showcasing the power potential that was expected of him. He has hit over his home run line in 40% of his last 5 games and 60% of his last 10 games. He's already surpassed his previous career high in home runs this month, now sitting at 28. The Royals are playing the Chicago White Sox at Rate Field, and while the park factor for home runs is slightly unfavorable at 96, the weather forecast calls for winds blowing out to right field, which is a significant boost for a left-handed slugger like Pasquantino. He also has a strong career OPS against the White Sox, and has hit a home run in 1 of his 13 career plate appearances against today's opposing pitcher, Aaron Civale.
The Jo Adell Bomb
(Los Angeles Angels)
Prop: Home Runs Over 0.5
Odds: +350
Book: FanDuel
📊 Analysis: Jo Adell presents an intriguing option for a home run today, especially with the game being played at Globe Life Field, which has a favorable HR park factor of 104. He has hit over his home run line in 40% of his last 5 games and 40% of his last 10 games. The Angels are facing Texas Rangers right-hander Jack Kochanowicz, who has struggled to keep the ball in the park this season, giving up 18 home runs in 22 appearances. Adell has also shown some success against Kochanowicz in limited opportunities, hitting 2 home runs in 11 career plate appearances against him. This combination of a hitter-friendly park and a pitcher prone to giving up home runs makes Adell a solid choice.
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Today’s Best Long Shot’s
HR Props!
The Salvador Perez Bomb (Kansas City Royals)
Line: 0.5 Home Runs
Best Odds: +300
Book Links: Fanduel
Salvador Perez has a strong historical matchup that points to a good chance of hitting a home run today. He and the Kansas City Royals are facing Aaron Civale of the Chicago White Sox at Rate Field.
Matchup Analysis: Perez has an excellent career record against Civale. In 22 plate appearances, he has collected 6 hits in 19 at-bats, including two home runs. His batting average against Civale is a robust .316, with an impressive slugging percentage of .737 and a wOBA of .475. These numbers indicate he sees Civale's pitches very well and has a history of driving the ball for power against him.
Park Factor: Rate Field has a home run park factor of 96, which is slightly below average for home runs, meaning it's not a significant boost but also not a major deterrent.
Betting Recommendation: Given his strong historical performance against Civale, I recommend the Over 0.5 Home Runs for Salvador Perez
The Matt Chapman Bomb (San Francisco Giants)
Line: 0.5 Home Runs
Best Odds: +500
Book Link: BetMGM
Matt Chapman also presents an intriguing home run opportunity, despite playing in a less favorable park for power. The San Francisco Giants are hosting the Chicago Cubs at Oracle Park, with Chapman set to face Colin Rea.
Matchup Analysis: Chapman has an exceptionally strong career history against Colin Rea. In 6 plate appearances, he has recorded 3 hits in 5 at-bats, including one home run. His batting average against Rea is an outstanding .600, with a massive slugging percentage of 1.400 and a wOBA of .813. This indicates a very high probability of making hard contact and driving the ball when facing Rea.
Park Factor: Oracle Park has a home run park factor of 79, which is quite pitcher-friendly for home runs. This is a significant factor to consider, as it generally suppresses home run totals. However, Chapman's dominant individual matchup against Rea could potentially overcome this park's tendencies.
Betting Recommendation: While the park factor is a concern, Chapman's individual success against Rea is too compelling to ignore. I recommend the Over 0.5 Home Runs for Matt Chapman.
The Luke Raley Bomb
(Seattle Mariners)
Luke Raley of the Seattle Mariners has a favorable individual matchup today against Yu Darvish of the San Diego Padres at T-Mobile Park.
Matchup Analysis: Raley has performed exceptionally well against Darvish in his career. In 11 plate appearances, he has collected 5 hits in 10 at-bats, including one home run. His batting average against Darvish is .500, with a slugging percentage of 1.000 and a wOBA of .638. These are strong indicators of his ability to hit for power against this specific pitcher.
Park Factor: T-Mobile Park has a home run park factor of 93, which is slightly pitcher-friendly.
Betting Information: Unfortunately, I could not find any specific player prop betting lines for Luke Raley to hit a home run in the available research. Therefore, I cannot provide a betting recommendation or bet slip for him at this time.
The Tyler Fitzgerald
(San Francisco Giants Bomb)
Tyler Fitzgerald of the San Francisco Giants is playing at Oracle Park today.
Matchup Analysis: I do not have specific career pitcher vs. batter matchup data for Tyler Fitzgerald in the provided research.
Park Factor: Oracle Park has a home run park factor of 79, which is very pitcher-friendly for home runs.
Betting Information: I could not find any specific player prop betting lines for Tyler Fitzgerald to hit a home run in the available research. Without specific matchup data or betting lines, I cannot provide a detailed analysis or a betting recommendation for him to hit a home run today.
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