Today's Top NFL Best Touchdown Props 10/26/25

It's finally Sunday, which means the NFL slate is in full swing! To celebrate the wall-to-wall action (and, unofficially, National Tight Ends Day), we're diving straight into the most electrifying player props: Anytime Touchdown Scorer (ATDS) bets!

But this isn't your average gut-feeling list. We've teamed up with Pine Sports AI and their predictive model, JaXon, to give you a true edge. We've blended JaXon's data-driven predictions with my human intuition—analyzing matchups, red-zone usage, and recent trends—to bring you six high-value recommendations.

That includes the absolute best tight end pick for their special day, along with all the betting links you need to get in on the action. Let's get to work and find some winners!

🏈 Today's Top Anytime Touchdown Scorer Props:

Here are my top six ATDS recommendations for today's games, combining elite usage, favorable matchups, and strong recent performance.

1. Jalen Hurts (PHI) Over 0.5 Rushing TD

✅ Pick: Jalen Hurts Over 0.5 TD (-118) BetRivers

Analysis:

Jalen Hurts is arguably the most reliable goal-line threat in the NFL, and this divisional matchup sets him up perfectly for another score. The Eagles are heavy favorites against the Giants, and the news that wide receiver A.J. Brown (hamstring) is out only reinforces the likelihood of Philadelphia leaning heavily on their ground game and the infamous "tush push" near the end zone.

📊 Statistical Dominance:

Hurts leads all quarterbacks in the league in every critical rushing touchdown metric this season. He ranks1stin Rushing Touchdowns (5 total),1stin redzone carries (17 total),1stin inside-10 carries (10 total), and1stin inside-5 carries (9 total). His usage near the goal line is unmatched.

📰 Matchup & Trend:

The Giants defense is ranked 29th against the quarterback position, making this a highly favorable matchup. Hurts has a history of success against New York, scoring a touchdown in both the 2025 and 2024 matchups. He has hit the over on this prop in 57.14% of his games this season, and 66.67% of his home games. Given the injury to Brown, expect the Eagles to simplify their red zone attack, funneling opportunities directly to Hurts.

2. Josh Jacobs (GB) Over 0.5 Rushing TD

✅ Pick: Josh Jacobs Over 0.5 TD (-170) Kalshi

Analysis

Josh Jacobs has been an absolute touchdown machine this season, making him a must-play anytime he is on the slate. His role as the primary goal-line back for the Packers is solidified, and his recent performance trends are exceptional.

📊 Statistical Dominance:

Jacobs ranks2ndamong running backs with 8 Rushing Touchdowns this season. Crucially, he leads all RBs in redzone rushing TDs (8 total, Rank 1) and inside-5 rushing TDs (5 total, Rank 1). He also ranks2ndin inside-10 rushing TDs (6 total).

📰 Recent Performance & Trend:

Jacobs has been incredibly consistent, hitting the over on this prop in 83.33% of his games this season. Looking at his recent history, he has scored a touchdown in90% of his last 10 gamesand 80% of his last 5 games. While the Steelers defense is slightly above average against the run (Defense vs. RB Rank 11.0), Jacobs' elite volume and red zone efficiency make him matchup-proof.

3. Bijan Robinson (ATL) Over 0.5 TD

✅ Pick: Bijan Robinson Over 0.5 TD (-233) Kalshi

Analysis

This pick is driven by a combination of Robinson's dual-threat ability and the Dolphins' severely struggling defense. The Falcons are favored by 7 to 7.5 points, suggesting a positive game script where they will rely on the run game to close out the victory.

📊 Matchup Nightmare:

The Miami Dolphins defense is ranked 23rd against the running back position and has been shredded on the ground, allowing a league-high 898 rushing yards to RBs this season and 5.2 yards per carry. Robinson is a threat both rushing and receiving, ranking3rdin targets (39 total) and2ndin receiving yards (390 total) among RBs. Miami ranks 30th in receiving yards allowed per pass play to running backs, meaning Robinson can score from anywhere on the field.

📰 Home Field Dominance:

Robinson has been highly effective at home this season, hitting the over on this prop in100% of his three home games(mean 1.0 TD). He also ranks3rdamong RBs in redzone targets (7 total). The news narrative strongly suggests backing Robinson, as the Dolphins defense is in "complete disarray."

4. Ja'Marr Chase (CIN) Over 0.5 TD

✅ Pick: Ja'Marr Chase Over 0.5 TD (-120) DraftKings

Analysis

Despite the Bengals' offensive struggles this season, Ja'Marr Chase remains an elite talent with elite volume, especially when playing at home. The Jets defense is dealing with key injuries, which should open up opportunities for the Bengals' top receiver.

📊 Elite Volume & Home Trend:

Chase leads all wide receivers in the NFL with 80 targets this season (11.4 per game). While his overall season hit rate is 57.14%, his performance at home is stellar: he has hit the over on this prop in100% of his three home gamesthis season, averaging 1.33 touchdowns per home contest. He ranks4thamong WRs with 5 Receiving TDs total.

📰 Matchup Context:

The Jets defense is missing key players like Sauce Gardner, which significantly weakens their secondary. The news suggests that the Jets defense will have their hands full trying to slow down Chase, which should allow him to find the end zone, especially with the Bengals expected to be in a competitive game script.

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🦾National Tight Ends Day Picks!

Since today is National Tight Ends Day, we need to highlight the best options. While several TEs have strong narratives (Goedert, Warren, Kincaid), only one of the top red zone threats has a direct betting link available in the research.

5. Zach Ertz (WAS) Over 0.5 TD

✅ Pick: Zach Ertz Over 0.5 TD (+270) Kalshi

Analysis

This is a high-risk, high-reward play due to the tough opponent, but Ertz's red zone usage and the favorable plus-money odds make him an intriguing target for National Tight Ends Day.

📊 Red Zone Reliability:

Ertz is one of the most targeted tight ends near the goal line. He ranks3rdamong TEs with 4 Receiving Touchdowns this season. He ranks2ndin redzone TDs (4 total) and5thin inside-10 targets (4 total). He has hit the over on this prop in 57.14% of his games this season.

⚠️ Matchup Caveat & Value:

The Kansas City Chiefs defense is ranked 2nd against the tight end position, which is why the odds are set at a generous +270. However, Ertz has proven to be a reliable red zone target regardless of the opponent. The plus-money odds offer significant value for a player who is consistently utilized inside the 20-yard line. If the Commanders manage to move the ball, Ertz is a prime candidate to punch it in.

6. Michael Pittman Jr. (IND) Over 0.5 TD

✅ Pick: Michael Pittman Jr. Over 0.5 TD (+180) BetRivers

Analysis

Michael Pittman Jr. is a key component of the Colts' high-powered offense, and he faces a Titans defense that has struggled significantly this season. The Colts are massive favorites, and Pittman's red zone volume is excellent.

📊 Red Zone Volume:

Pittman ranks4thamong wide receivers with 5 Receiving Touchdowns this season. His red zone usage is elite, ranking5thin redzone targets (11 total) and3rdin inside-5 targets (5 total). He has hit the over on this prop in 71.43% of his games this season.

📰 Favorable Matchup & Trend:

The Titans defense is ranked 28th in scoring defense (27.4 ppg allowed). Pittman has already found success against this opponent this season, hitting the over on this prop in their previous matchup. With the Colts averaging 33.1 ppg, expect multiple scoring opportunities, and Pittman is the primary beneficiary of goal-line passing plays.