Today’s Top NFL Touchdown Props for 10/12/25
- Lee Shipley
- 6 days ago
- 5 min read
Get ready for NFL Sunday! We're diving deep into the most exciting bets: anytime touchdown props and those sweet, sweet longshots where the big money is hiding. I've crunched the numbers from our Pine Sports models, analyzed redzone stats, and checked for any last-minute injury news to give you the top picks and some sneaky high-value bets for tomorrow's full slate of games, including the Broncos vs. Jets and Lions vs. Chiefs. Let's find some winners!
🌟 Top Anytime Touchdown Scorer Picks (Shorter Odds)
These players are high-volume redzone threats facing favorable matchups or demonstrating elite scoring consistency.
1. Jonathan Taylor (Indianapolis Colts)
Taylor is the engine of the Colts offense and is positioned for a massive day against the Cardinals.
Matchup Edge: Taylor faces the Arizona Cardinals (DVP 16.0 vs. RBs), a neutral matchup, but the Colts offense is projected to win by a significant margin, setting up a positive game script for the run game.
Elite Volume: Taylor leads all running backs in the research in 2025 season rushing touchdowns (6 total, 1.2 per game, Rank #1. He also leads in carries per game (18.8, Rank #1) and redzone carries per game (5.4, Rank #1).
Recent Trend: He has hit the over on 0.5 touchdowns in 60% of his last five games, with a season mean of 1.4 touchdowns per game.
2. J.K. Dobbins (Denver Broncos)
Dobbins has been the most consistent scorer for the Broncos and gets a prime opportunity in the London game against a struggling Jets defense.
Matchup Edge: The New York Jets rank 27th against the running back position, making this a highly favorable spot for Dobbins. The Jets are allowing 140.4 rushing yards per game and have given up five rushing touchdowns this season.
Scoring Consistency: Dobbins has scored a touchdown in four of the Broncos' five games this season, giving him an 80% hit rate over his last five contests. His season mean is 0.8 touchdowns per game.
Game Script: With the Broncos favored by 7 points, Dobbins is expected to see high usage late in the game, especially near the goal line. All four of his touchdowns this season have come in the second half.
3. Kyren Williams (Los Angeles Rams)
Williams is set up for success against a Baltimore Ravens defense that has been decimated by injuries and poor play.
Matchup Edge: The Ravens defense ranks 29th against the running back position, a very favorable spot. The Ravens have allowed a league-high 35.4 points per game and 8 touchdowns to opposing backfields.
Redzone Usage: Williams has a 60% hit rate this season (3/5 games) with a season mean of 0.8 touchdowns. He is heavily involved in the passing game near the goal line, ranking 2nd among RBs in redzone receptions and targets.
Game Script: With the Rams favored, expect them to lean on Williams against a Ravens run defense that allows 8.0 yards per carry against the man/gap schemes the Rams utilize.
4. Jahmyr Gibbs (Detroit Lions)
Gibbs is a dual-threat weapon in a potential Sunday Night Football shootout against the Chiefs.
Matchup Edge: The Chiefs defense ranks 14th against the running back position, but their rushing defense ranks 21st in yards per game and 26th in yards per rush.
Scoring Consistency: Gibbs has an 80% hit rate this season (4/5 games) with a season mean of 1.0 touchdown. He is a high-volume receiver, ranking 2nd in targets and 3rd in receptions among RBs in the research.
Game Script: The Lions may look to control the time of possession and run more against the Chiefs' vulnerable run defense, making Gibbs a strong candidate to find the endzone.
5. James Cook (Buffalo Bills)
Cook is the clear lead back for a high-powered Bills offense looking to bounce back against the Falcons.
Matchup Edge: Cook faces a tough Atlanta Falcons defense (DVP 5.0), but the Bills are heavily favored, suggesting they will move the ball effectively.
Volume & Consistency: Cook has an 80% hit rate this season (4/5 games) with a season mean of 1.0 touchdown. He ranks 2nd in Rushing Yards (90.0/game) and 3rd in Rushing TDs (5 total) among RBs in the research.
News: The Bills are projected to win outright nearly 80% of the time and cover the spread in almost 70% of simulations, indicating a high-scoring affair for Buffalo's offense.
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🎯 Longshot Anytime Touchdown Scorer Picks
(Plus Money)
These picks offer excellent value based on favorable matchups, high redzone usage, or recent trends, despite the longer odds.
1. Davante Adams (Los Angeles Rams)
Adams is a premier redzone threat getting plus money against the league's worst pass defense.
Matchup Edge: Adams faces the Baltimore Ravens defense, which ranks 31st against the wide receiver position—the most favorable matchup available in the research. The Ravens secondary is described as "limp" and has allowed the most passing touchdowns in the league.
Redzone Usage: Adams is a target hog, ranking 2nd among WRs in Redzone Targets, Inside 10 Targets, and Inside 5 Targets. He has a 60% hit rate this season (3/5 games) with a season mean of 0.6 touchdowns.
News: Quarterback Matthew Stafford is on a hot streak, throwing three touchdowns in each of the last two games, a streak likely to continue against this struggling secondary.
2. Jake Tonges (San Francisco 49ers)
Tonges offers fantastic value as a redzone target against a weak Buccaneers defense.
Matchup Edge: Tonges faces the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense, which ranks 30th against the tight end position—a highly exploitable matchup.
Redzone Usage: Tonges has a 60% hit rate this season (3/5 games) with a season mean of 0.6 touchdowns. He ranks 8th among TEs in receiving TDs and 7th in redzone receptions.
Value: Getting +275 odds for a player who has scored in 60% of his games this season against a bottom-tier defense is a strong value play.
3. Tyquan Thornton (Kansas City Chiefs)
Thornton is a deep threat who could capitalize on the Lions' severely depleted secondary in the Sunday Night Football matchup.
Matchup Edge: Thornton faces the Detroit Lions defense, which ranks 28th against the wide receiver position. News reports indicate the Lions secondary is "down their top three cornerbacks, and both safeties are also banged up."
Recent Trend: Thornton has a 60% hit rate this season (3/5 games) with a season mean of 0.6 touchdowns. He has 40 or more receiving yards in four of five games played, demonstrating his vertical ability.
Game Script: The Chiefs should be airing it out, and Thornton's role as a vertical threat makes him a prime candidate for a long touchdown against a vulnerable secondary.
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