Todays Top Home Run Prop Picks MLB for 6/13/25

Welcome Back to The Outlet Sports Ventures, the only place you need for your daily dose of dingers! We're not just throwing darts here; we're breaking down today's top home run prop recommendations with serious data. We're talking deep dives into pitcher vs. batter matchups, crunching slugging rates, and dissecting hard-hit percentages to bring you the best picks. And the best part? All this powerful insight is backed by Pine Sports' incredible AI, JaXon, making us the number one website for home run picks. Each recommendation comes with detailed analysis, and for your convenience, a direct betting link. Let's hit some homers!

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The Eugenio Suárez Bomb (Arizona Diamondbacks)

• Matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres

• Pitcher: Stephen Kolek (RHP)

• Key Stats:

  • Suárez has a 60% hit rate for home runs in his last 5 games and a 40% hit rate in his last 10 games.

  • At home this season, he has hit the over 28.57% of the time.

  • Kolek has allowed a 33.3% hard-hit rate and a 26.7% strikeout rate, which suggests Suárez could capitalize on mistakes.

• Odds:

  • Over 0.5 HR: +560 at FanDuel.

  • Under 0.5 HR: -700 at BetMGM.

The Romy Gonzalez Bomb (Boston RedSox)

• Matchup: New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox

• Prop Line: Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs

• Odds:

  • Over: +750 at FanDuel

  • Under: -1000 at BetMGM

• Analysis:

  • Gonzalez has hit just 1 home run in 24 games this season, with a 4.17% hit rate.

  • Over the last 20 games, his home run hit rate is 5%, and he has not hit a home run at home this season.

  • Against the Yankees in 2025, he has a 33.33% hit rate for home runs (1 in 3 games).

  • Recommendation: The under is heavily favored, and given his low season-long power numbers, betting on the under is the safer play.

The Bo Naylor Bomb (Cleveland Guardians)

• Matchup: Cleveland Guardians @ Seattle Mariners

• Prop Line: Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs

• Odds:

  • Over: +600 at FanDuel

  • Under: -750 at BetMGM

• Analysis:

  • Naylor has hit 9 home runs in 53 games this season, with a 16.98% hit rate.

  • Over the last 20 games, his home run hit rate is 15%, and as a visitor, his hit rate is 18.52%.

  • Against the Mariners in 2024, he had a 20% hit rate (1 in 5 games).

  • Recommendation: While the odds for the over are enticing, his recent and season-long trends suggest the under is the more likely outcome.

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The Honorable Mentions!

Cal Raleigh (Seattle Mariners)

• Over 0.5 HR: +350 at DraftKings.

Riley Greene (Detroit Tigers)

• Over: +603 at Pinnacle

Hunter Goodman (Colorado Rockies)

• Over 0.5 HR: +480 at BetRivers.