Top MLB Home Run Prop Bets: Swing for the Fences!
- Lee Shipley
- Jun 18
- 2 min read
Updated: Jun 27
Ready to swing for the fences? In this article, we're diving deep into today's top MLB home run prop bets. We've crunched the latest stats and odds to bring you our best picks, complete with all the analysis you need to make informed decisions. Plus, we'll even show you exactly where to place your bets. Oh, and did we mention all this data is powered by the incredible Pine Sports AI JaXon? Let's hit some dingers!
The Yandy Díaz Bomb
(Tampa Bay Rays)
Best Over Line: 0.5 HR
Odds: +550
Book: BetRivers
Analysis:
Recent Performance: Over his last 20 games, Díaz has hit a home run in just 15% of games. He averages 0.15 HR per game.
Matchup Context: Against the Baltimore Orioles, Díaz hasn't hit a home run in two matchups this season.
Season Trends: His home run rate for the season is 14.93%, with a total of 10 home runs in 67 games.
Recommendation: The odds at +550 are appealing. However, the low hit rate and lack of success against Baltimore make this bet risky. Consider it only a long-shot play.
The Ryan McMahon Bomb
(Colorado Rockies)
Odds: +600
Book: BetRivers
Analysis:
Recent Performance: McMahon has hit the over in 60% of his last five games. He has a 15.71% season hit rate.
Matchup Context: Nationals Park is favorable for hitters. McMahon’s recent form shows he's a strong underdog with significant upside.
The Yainer Díaz Bomb
(Houston Astros)
Best Over Line: 0.5 HR
Odds: +575
Book: BetMGM
Analysis:
Recent Performance: Díaz has hit a home run in 20% of his last 20 games, averaging 0.2 HR per game.
Matchup Context: Against the Oakland Athletics, Díaz has not hit a home run in three matchups so far this season.
Season Trends: With a home run rate of 14.06%, he's tallied 9 home runs in 64 games.
Recommendation: At +575, Díaz offers solid value. Despite his unfavorable matchup history against Oakland, his recent performance makes him a viable long-shot option.
The Honorable Mentions!
Aaron Judge (New York Yankees)
Odds: +215 On Pinnacle
Eugenio Suárez (Diamondbacks)
Odds: +330 on BetRivers
Elly De La Cruz (Cincinnati Reds)
Odds: +380 on BetRivers
Luis Urias (SAC Athletics)
There’s no link available, but he's a great value bet and a personal favorite!
Final Thoughts on Betting on Home Runs
Betting on home runs can be both exciting and challenging. It requires an understanding of player performance, matchup contexts, and various influencing factors. Utilizing data and analysis from sources like Pine Sports AI can help improve your chances of making successful bets.
Remember to gamble responsibly and consider the risks involved. Happy betting, and may you hit the jackpot on your home run prop bets!
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