Todays Top MLB Homerun Props 4/28/25

Hey baseball fans! Ready for some dingers tomorrow? I've got the inside scoop on the best home run prop bets for April 28th, 2025. My analysis, powered by the smart folks at Pine Sports AI JaXon, digs into slugging percentages, who's been hot lately, and which ballparks are just begging for some long balls. For each pick, you'll get the full breakdown and a quick link to place your bet. Let's go yard!

Get Your Own Pine Sports Betting Agent JaXon! Use Code “PLUG25” & get 25% OFF

Teoscar Hernández Bomb (Los Angeles Dodgers)

• Recent Performance: Hernández has hit the over on his home run prop in 60% of his last 5 games and 30% of his last 10 games. His season average is 0.32 home runs per game.

• Opponent Matchup: Against the Marlins in 2024, Hernández had a 40% hit rate for home runs, averaging 0.4 per game.

• Ballpark Factor: Dodger Stadium is moderately hitter-friendly, and Hernández thrives at home with a 30.77% hit rate for home runs this season.

• Odds: +525 for over 0.5 home runs.

• Bet Link: Teoscar Hernández - ESPN Bet

The Byron Buxton Bomb (Minnesota Twins)

• Recent Performance: Buxton has hit the over in 40% of his last 5 games and 30% of his last 20 games. His season average is 0.24 home runs per game.

• Opponent Matchup: Against the Guardians in 2024, Buxton had an 8.33% hit rate for home runs, but his power potential remains high.

• Ballpark Factor: Progressive Field is slightly hitter-friendly, and Buxton’s road performance (18.18% hit rate for home runs) adds value.

• Odds: +285 for over 0.5 home runs.

• Bet Link: Byron Buxton - Pinnacle

The Kyle Manzardo Bomb (Cleveland Guardians)

• Recent Performance: Manzardo has hit the over in 40% of his last 5 games and 29.17% of his games this season. His season average is 0.29 home runs per game.

• Opponent Matchup: Against the Twins in 2024, Manzardo had a 40% hit rate for home runs, averaging 0.4 per game.

• Ballpark Factor: Progressive Field’s hitter-friendly tendencies and Manzardo’s home performance (20% hit rate for home runs) make this a solid pick.

• Odds: +350 for over 0.5 home runs.

• Bet Link: Kyle Manzardo - ESPN Bet

The Confidence Ratings!

Teoscar Hernández (Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Miami Marlins)

• Confidence Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (4/5)

Byron Buxton (Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians)

• Confidence Rating: ⭐⭐⭐ (3/5)

Kyle Manzardo (Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins)

• Confidence Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (4/5)