Todays Top MLB Homerun Props for 5/9/25
- Lee Shipley
- May 9
- 2 min read
Ready for some long bombs? Today's MLB slate is shaping up for some potential fireworks, and we've pinpointed the top home run prop bets to keep an eye on. Our recommendations are carefully selected based on a combination of recent player performance, advantageous hitter-pitcher matchups, and the most enticing odds available. For each pick, you'll find in-depth analysis and a direct link to place your bet with ease. Let's dive into the players poised to go yard today!
The Wilmer Flores Bomb (San Fran Giants)
Home Run Trends
Last 5 Games: 0% hit rate (0 home runs).
Last 10 Games: 0% hit rate (0 home runs).
Last 15 Games: 6.67% hit rate (1 home run).
Last 20 Games: 5% hit rate (1 home run).
Season Average: 18.92% hit rate (7 home runs in 37 games).
Odds
Analysis
Flores has struggled to hit home runs recently, with only 1 in his last 15 games and none in his last 5 or 10 games.
His season-long home run rate of 18.92% is respectable but not consistent enough to make the over a strong bet.
The odds of +700 for the over provide significant value, but the low hit rate makes this a high-risk play.
The Enrique Hernández Bomb (LA Dodgers)
Home Run Trends
Last 5 Games: 0% hit rate (0 home runs).
Last 10 Games: 0% hit rate (0 home runs).
Last 15 Games: 6.67% hit rate (1 home run).
Last 20 Games: 10% hit rate (2 home runs).
Season Average: 14.29% hit rate (4 home runs in 28 games).
Odds
Analysis
Hernández has not hit a home run in his last 10 games, and his season-long rate of 14.29% is below average.
The odds of +600 for the over are enticing, but the lack of recent success makes this a very speculative bet.
Given his struggles against today's opponent (0 home runs in 1 game this season), the under is the safer play.
The Aaron Judge Bomb
(NY Yankees)
Odds: +160
Book: FanDuel
Analysis: Judge is in elite form, slashing .400/.491/.750 with 12 home runs this season. He faces Osvaldo Bido, who has allowed seven home runs in seven starts, including four in a single game. Judge's 95.6 mph average exit velocity and 14.5% barrel rate make him a premium power bet today.
Summary of Recommendations
Wilmer Flores Over 0.5 Home Runs (+700 at BetMGM): High-risk, high-reward play. Flores has shown some power this season but has struggled recently. Only consider this if you're looking for a longshot bet.
Enrique Hernández Over 0.5 Home Runs (+600 at FanDuel): Another high-risk option. Hernández has not been consistent, and his recent trends do not support the over. The under is a safer choice.
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