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Top Home Run Prop Bets for Today 6/1/25

The Outlet SV Homerun Article

Ready to swing for the fences with your MLB bets? We've crunched the numbers on today's matchups, diving deep into batter slugging percentages, pitcher hard-hit rates, and all the latest trends to unearth the absolute best home run prop bets out there. And the best part? All this awesome data is powered and supported by Pine Sports AI, giving you the ultimate edge. Get ready to hit some dingers!


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The Sean Murphy Bomb

(ATL Braves)

Sean Murphy HR Pine Sports

  • Odds: Over 0.5 Home Runs at +650 (DraftKings)

  • Recent Performance:

    • Last 5 games: 40% hit rate for home runs.

    • Last 10 games: 30% hit rate for home runs.

    • Season average: 25% hit rate (9 home runs in 36 games).

  • Matchup Context:

    • Murphy has hit 1 home run in 3 games against the Red Sox this season (33.33% hit rate).

    • At home, his home run rate drops to 17.65%.

  • Analysis:

    • Murphy has shown some power recently, with a 40% hit rate over his last 5 games. His odds of +650 provide decent value, but his lower home run rate at home and against the Red Sox make this a moderate-risk option.


The William Contreras Bomb (Milwaukee Brewers)

William Contreras HR pine sports

  • Odds: Over 0.5 Home Runs at +750 (BetRivers)

  • Recent Performance:

    • Last 5 games: 0% hit rate for home runs.

    • Last 10 games: 10% hit rate for home runs.

    • Season average: 9.09% hit rate (5 home runs in 55 games).

  • Matchup Context:

    • Contreras has not hit a home run in 2 games against the Phillies this season.

    • His performance on the road shows a slight improvement, with a 16.67% hit rate for home runs.

  • Analysis:

    • While Contreras has struggled to hit home runs recently, his odds of +750 offer significant value for a long-shot bet. However, his lack of success against the Phillies and low season average make this a high-risk option


The James Wood Bomb (Washington Nationals)

James Wood HR Pine Sports

  • Game Time: 4:10 PM EDT

  • Key Stats:

    • Wood has hit the over on 0.5 home runs in 60% of his last 5 games.

    • While his season-long home run rate is 26.32%, his recent form and the Diamondbacks' pitching struggles make this a high-value pick.

  • Best Bet: Over 0.5 Home Runs (+700)


Free Picks The Outlet sports Ventures

The Honorable Mentions List!


Shohei Ohtani (Los Angeles Dodgers) vs. New York Yankees

  • Best Bet: Over 0.5 Home Runs (+235)




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