Top MLB Homerun Props For 5/7/25

Here are the sluggers poised to go yard in today's MLB matchups. This curated list of potential home run hitters is generated using cutting-edge analysis of recent player performance, comprehensive season statistics, and critical matchup insights, all powered by Pine Sports AI. Let’s Get the Books for a Bag Today!

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The Aaron Judge Bomb

(New York Yankees)

• Game: San Diego Padres @ New York Yankees

• Recent Form: Judge hit his 12th home run of the season yesterday, tying him for the MLB lead with Cal Raleigh and Kyle Schwarber. He has a .412 batting average and leads the AL in RBIs with 34.

• Matchup Stats: Against the Padres in 2025, Judge has a 50% hit rate for home runs (1 HR in 2 games).

• Season Stats: Judge has hit 12 home runs in 36 games, with a 30.56% hit rate.

• Betting Odds:

  • Over 0.5 HRs: +201 at Pinnacle

  • Under 0.5 HRs: -275 at ESPN Bet

The Kyle Schwarber Bomb (Philadelphia Phillies)

• Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Tampa Bay Rays

• Recent Form: Schwarber hit his 12th home run of the season yesterday, tying him for the MLB lead. He has a 60% hit rate for home runs in his last 5 games.

• Matchup Stats: Against the Rays in 2025, Schwarber has a 100% hit rate for home runs (1 HR in 1 game).

• Season Stats: Schwarber has hit 12 home runs in 35 games, with a 34.29% hit rate.

• Betting Odds:

  • Over 0.5 HRs: +307 at Pinnacle

  • Under 0.5 HRs: -450 at ESPN Bet

The Shohei Ohtani Bomb (Los Angeles Dodgers)

• Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins

• Recent Form: Ohtani hit a home run yesterday, bringing his season total to 9. He has a 60% hit rate for home runs in his last 5 games.

• Matchup Stats: Against the Marlins in 2025, Ohtani has a 60% hit rate for home runs (3 HRs in 5 games).

• Season Stats: Ohtani has hit 9 home runs in 33 games, with a 27.27% hit rate.

• Betting Odds:

  • Over 0.5 HRs: +200 at FanDuel

  • Under 0.5 HRs: -225 at ESPN Bet

Confidence Ratings for Top Home Run Hitters on 5/7/25!

Here are the confidence ratings for each of the top home run hitters I previously mentioned, based on their recent performance, matchup data, and season trends. Ratings are provided on a 5-star scale (⭐️ = Low Confidence, ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ = High Confidence).

1. Aaron Judge (New York Yankees)

Confidence Rating: ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️(4/5)

Judge’s power and recent form make him a strong candidate, especially at home, but his 30.56% season hit rate tempers expectations slightly.

2. Kyle Schwarber (Philadelphia Phillies)

Confidence Rating: ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️(5/5)

Schwarbers recent form and 100% hit rate against the Rays this season make him a top pick for today.

3. Shohei Ohtani (Los Angeles Dodgers)

Confidence Rating: ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️(4/5)

Ohtani’s power and matchup history against the Marlins make him a strong candidate, though his season hit rate is slightly lower than others.