The Top MLB Homerun Props for 4/21/25
- Lee Shipley
- Apr 20
- 2 min read
Get ready for today's top MLB home run prop bets (April 21, 2025)! Leveraging the powerful data insights of Pine Sports AI Betting Agent JaXon, combined with the sharp analysis of an Outlet SV Expert Betting Advisor – a true homerun formula – we've pinpointed the props with the biggest odds differences across sports books, revealing prime value opportunities for savvy bettors.
The Trevor Story Bomb! (Boston Red Sox)
Odds: Over 0.5 Home Runs (+647) at Pinnacle
Key Stats:
Hit rate of 40% against the White Sox in 2025.
Sean Burke’s 11.81 ERA and .857 slugging percentage allowed to right-handed hitters make this a favorable matchup.
Analysis: Story’s power potential against a struggling pitcher like Burke makes him a high-upside option, especially at +647 odds.
The Kyle Schwarber Bomb! (Philadelphia Phillies)
Odds: Over 0.5 Home Runs (+400) at FanDuel
Key Stats:
Hit rate of 44.44% for home runs in his last 9 road games.
Season average of 0.32 home runs per game (31.82% hit rate).
Strong power numbers against right-handed pitching, which aligns with Mets starter Tylor Megill's struggles against left-handed hitters.
Analysis: Schwarber’s power is undeniable, and his recent road performance makes him a strong candidate to go deep. The odds at +400 provide excellent value.
The Pete Alonso Bomb!
(New York Mets)
Odds: Over 0.5 Home Runs (+452) at Pinnacle
Key Stats:
Season average of 0.27 home runs per game (27.27% hit rate).
Strong history against the Phillies, with a 29.41% hit rate for home runs in 2024.
Analysis: Alonso’s power and familiarity with Phillies pitching make him a strong candidate to go deep. The +452 odds offer solid value.
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